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Let's talk about the return of Damari Monsanto

Yeah, that article echoes what I have heard from folks I have talked to. The school of thought on these injuries has changed a bit... There is no strict timetable, it is more about hitting milestones and once it is fully healed, it shouldn't be an issue.

I think it is reasonable to expect it'll take a few weeks of practice and some game action to shake the rust off, but I am more optimistic about his potential contributions this year than most who have posted.

He's an elite rebounder for his size. He's also a very good 3 point shooter (and should be shooting them at a lower volume than he did at ETSU, which should help). And I know defensive statistics need to be taken with a grain of salt, but he had strong ratings/metrics for defense.

I expect that he'll immediately enter the rotation (5-10mpg) and I think a month from now, we'll be talking about him as our 3rd best player (behind Williams & LaRavia).

This team is in dire need of "instant offense" off the bench, and Monsanto is that guy.
 
The timetable thing really is true. Used to be when you heard about a certain injury, you just wrote an athlete off for a certain amount of time. Now it’s more up in the air as to when they’ll actually come back. Often sooner than expected. I feel like Joe Burrow stands out as an example of this to me.
 
DeacsATS said:
Yeah, that article echoes what I have heard from folks I have talked to. The school of thought on these injuries has changed a bit... There is no strict timetable, it is more about hitting milestones and once it is fully healed, it shouldn't be an issue.

I think it is reasonable to expect it'll take a few weeks of practice and some game action to shake the rust off, but I am more optimistic about his potential contributions this year than most who have posted.

He's an elite rebounder for his size. He's also a very good 3 point shooter (and should be shooting them at a lower volume than he did at ETSU, which should help). And I know defensive statistics need to be taken with a grain of salt, but he had strong ratings/metrics for defense.

I expect that he'll immediately enter the rotation (5-10mpg) and I think a month from now, we'll be talking about him as our 3rd best player (behind Williams & LaRavia).

This team is in dire need of "instant offense" off the bench, and Monsanto is that guy.
Click to expand...

I like your optimism. I can't get there to say he is going to be the 3rd best player this season, let alone by early February. If he is, than we should be a top-4 ACCT seed and a NCAAT lock.

Even at full strength - what makes him better offensively than Mucius or Daivien? We haven't seen him rebound against ACC competition, he is smaller than our current 3/4 position (he was listed as a SF/PF in KP for ETSU, he is listed as as guard on our roster). He is a nice 3pt shooter, but he's closer to D1 average than 40%.

I want to believe, and I want to have realistic expectation for a guy who hasn't played in the P5 yet and is coming off injury. Either way, I can't wait to see him on the court!
 
DeacsATS said:
Yeah, that article echoes what I have heard from folks I have talked to. The school of thought on these injuries has changed a bit... There is no strict timetable, it is more about hitting milestones and once it is fully healed, it shouldn't be an issue.

I think it is reasonable to expect it'll take a few weeks of practice and some game action to shake the rust off, but I am more optimistic about his potential contributions this year than most who have posted.

He's an elite rebounder for his size. He's also a very good 3 point shooter (and should be shooting them at a lower volume than he did at ETSU, which should help). And I know defensive statistics need to be taken with a grain of salt, but he had strong ratings/metrics for defense.

I expect that he'll immediately enter the rotation (5-10mpg) and I think a month from now, we'll be talking about him as our 3rd best player (behind Williams & LaRavia).

This team is in dire need of "instant offense" off the bench, and Monsanto is that guy.
Click to expand...

Like the bold prediction. FWIW, WF has six players with KP "O" ratings over 100 (100 is an average player):

- LaRavia 123
- Williams 118
- Williamson 113
- Mucius 111
- Walton 107
- Sy 106

Williamson is averaging 13 ppg; Mucius 11; Walton 8 and 5. If Monsanto is better than Davien, Mucius, Walton and Sy; WF is going to be pretty loaded in a month.
 
Pilchard said:
Like the bold prediction. FWIW, WF has six players with KP "O" ratings over 100 (100 is an average player):

- LaRavia 123
- Williams 118
- Williamson 113
- Mucius 111
- Walton 107
- Sy 106

Williamson is averaging 13 ppg; Mucius 11; Walton 8 and 5. If Monsanto is better than Davien, Mucius, Walton and Sy; WF is going to be pretty loaded in a month.
Click to expand...

Pilch, pardon my ignorance as I'm not familiar with the KP O metric - how much "better" than average is LaRavia's 123? What do the extra 23 "points" above average mean in the context of this stat?
 
PaddyWF said:
I like your optimism. I can't get there to say he is going to be the 3rd best player this season, let alone by early February. If he is, than we should be a top-4 ACCT seed and a NCAAT lock.

Even at full strength - what makes him better offensively than Mucius or Daivien? We haven't seen him rebound against ACC competition, he is smaller than our current 3/4 position (he was listed as a SF/PF in KP for ETSU, he is listed as as guard on our roster). He is a nice 3pt shooter, but he's closer to D1 average than 40%.

I want to believe, and I want to have realistic expectation for a guy who hasn't played in the P5 yet and is coming off injury. Either way, I can't wait to see him on the court!
Click to expand...

He's going to be able to rebound. I have no doubt about that.

I have no idea about how he'll shoot given the transfer and the injury, but I'd suspect that he'll shoot a higher percentage from 3 on lower volume. He attempted 137 3s last year... Massoud led Wake Forest with 103 attempts. And he'll get plenty of open looks as the #3 (or #4) option on offense instead of being the #2 guy.

Monsanto thinks of himself as a guard. I remember him correcting someone on Twitter back when he entered the transfer portal because they labeled him a F instead of a G. I think he's a college 3... Call it whatever you want (G/F). I doubt he plays much at all for us at the 4... More likely he plays as a 2 in a big lineup.
 
Some of the shots Monsanto takes (and makes) are just wild. He is truly a 6'6 sniper who rebounds at an elite level. He would instantly make us a better team. Imagine Alondes drive and kick 3's to Monsanto in the corner - Would be simply unfair.

https://youtu.be/qPmnEcNqIvc
 
DeacsATS said:
He's going to be able to rebound. I have no doubt about that.

I have no idea about how he'll shoot given the transfer and the injury, but I'd suspect that he'll shoot a higher percentage from 3 on lower volume. He attempted 137 3s last year... Massoud led Wake Forest with 103 attempts. And he'll get plenty of open looks as the #3 (or #4) option on offense instead of being the #2 guy.

Monsanto thinks of himself as a guard. I remember him correcting someone on Twitter back when he entered the transfer portal because they labeled him a F instead of a G. I think he's a college 3... Call it whatever you want (G/F). I doubt he plays much at all for us at the 4... More likely he plays as a 2 in a big lineup.
Click to expand...

I can just see ManMan driving the lane and looking for either Mucius, Williamson or Monsanto for an open 3. Will be extremely tough to guard if he is able to play close to full strength.
 
DeacsATS said:
He's going to be able to rebound. I have no doubt about that.

I have no idea about how he'll shoot given the transfer and the injury, but I'd suspect that he'll shoot a higher percentage from 3 on lower volume. He attempted 137 3s last year... Massoud led Wake Forest with 103 attempts. And he'll get plenty of open looks as the #3 (or #4) option on offense instead of being the #2 guy.

Monsanto thinks of himself as a guard. I remember him correcting someone on Twitter back when he entered the transfer portal because they labeled him a F instead of a G. I think he's a college 3... Call it whatever you want (G/F). I doubt he plays much at all for us at the 4... More likely he plays as a 2 in a big lineup.
Click to expand...

Cool. He did shoot better in conference play (.379). Maybe the most interesting - he balled against a real good Alabama team (23/9, was 6-10 from 3).
 
Here is KP's explanation of an individual player's offensive rating (this is not a KP metric, but a basketball metric that is used both in college and NBA):

Developed by the omniscient Dean Oliver, an individual’s offensive rating attempts to measure a player’s offensive contribution to his team’s offensive efficiency. Producing a lot of points without using a lot of possessions will generate a high offensive rating. Points produced is measured by scoring points directly, dishing assists, and grabbing offensive rebounds and deducting for missed shots (that the opponent grabs), turnovers.

It's a complex formula that I simply understand that a rating over 100 is above average, above 110 is good and above 120 is elite. For the highest usage players in college basketball, the #1 offensive efficiency rating player is Iowa's Keegan Murray (134). He is averaging 25 ppg, grabs a lot of offensive rebounds and never turns the ball over. Alondes is #8 (first among the highest usage players). Because Jake missed some games and doesn't have the ball as much Jake doesn't qualify. Jake is 33rd among players in his usage category.

Here is a link with the formula spelled out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offensive_rating
 
Pilchard said:
Like the bold prediction. FWIW, WF has six players with KP "O" ratings over 100 (100 is an average player):

- LaRavia 123
- Williams 118
- Williamson 113
- Mucius 111
- Walton 107
- Sy 106

Williamson is averaging 13 ppg; Mucius 11; Walton 8 and 5. If Monsanto is better than Davien, Mucius, Walton and Sy; WF is going to be pretty loaded in a month.
Click to expand...

FWIW, players aren’t indexed to 100 as an average. Those numbers above represent points per 100 possessions that end in that player’s hands in absolute terms, not adjusted for strength of competition. That said, the median team (between 179/180 out of 358) has a raw rating of 101.5, so 100 is indeed a good approximation.

Wake at 109.5 given all the guys above. Hildreth at 98 and Whitt at 68 round out our rotation.

Monsanto was at 107 with fairly high usage last year. My hope would be that higher efficiency that often comes with lower usage offsets better competition and he comes in somewhere similar — which would make our offense even more dynamic. I also think the extra size could help our defense on the margin, and if extra depth lets guys be more aggressive that could help too.
 
Didn’t we only have one or two players over 100 in Manning’s last season?
 
PhDeac said:
Didn’t we only have one or two players over 100 in Manning’s last season?
Click to expand...

4. Only 101.9 as a team, good for 152nd in raw terms.

Sarr 116
Chaundee 109
Childress 104
Oguama (low usage) 103
 
As Haros pointed out, 101.5 is actually average. Also, in 2017, John Collins (125) had the best O rating among the highest usage players in all of college basketball. Keegan Murray's 134 so far this season is freakishly high and probably unsustainable. From 2004 through 2021, the NCAA leader has ranged from 120 to 127.
 
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Haros said:
FWIW, players aren’t indexed to 100 as an average. Those numbers above represent points per 100 possessions that end in that player’s hands in absolute terms, not adjusted for strength of competition. That said, the median team (between 179/180 out of 358) has a raw rating of 101.5, so 100 is indeed a good approximation.

Wake at 109.5 given all the guys above. Hildreth at 98 and Whitt at 68 round out our rotation.

Monsanto was at 107 with fairly high usage last year. My hope would be that higher efficiency that often comes with lower usage offsets better competition and he comes in somewhere similar — which would make our offense even more dynamic. I also think the extra size could help our defense on the margin, and if extra depth lets guys be more aggressive that could help too.
Click to expand...

Agree -- Monsanto "only" shot 35% from 3 last year, but given his reputation as a deadeye shooter from Forbes and others (plus the comment above about his shot selection) makes me thing he'll end up shooting a much better percentage in our offense.
 
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