Pilchard
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In what may be WF's biggest home basketball game in more than a decade, the Deacs host UNC Saturday night at the Joel. Here is the skinny on the Holes for this season.
2021-22 UNC: First year coach Hubert Davis leads his 12-5 (4-2 -- KP #37) to Winston. The Holes had a rough November giving up a lot of points to mediocre teams (87 to Brown; 83 to Charleston) and losing decisively to the quality teams they played (93-84 to Purdue; 89-72 to TN), but after falling to #53 in November, UNC started rolling up big wins (Michigan by 21, GT by 17 and 23, BC by 26, UVA by 16). Heading into this week, UNC had jumped up to #24 in KP ratings, and at that point, the "experts" were thrilled to conclude that the natural order of things had returned with Duke and UNC at the top of the ACC. Then, Duke lost at FSU, and the Canes smoked UNC by 28. As a result, several teams remain in the mix for the top spots in the conference, including our Deacs. Despite the blow out in Coral Gables, UNC's ACC metrics remain strong. The Holes are the #4 ACC team on offense, ranking #2 in the ACC in effective FG% (55%), #2 3 PT FG% (39%), #2 in FT % (81%). Like WF, UNC's primary weakness on offense is TOs (#11 in the ACC in TO%). Surprisingly, UNC ranks as the #2 ACC team in defense in conference games. UNC leads the ACC in preventing offensive rebounds and keeping the opponent off the foul line; they rank #2 in 2 PT FG defense. However, the Hole's don't force many TOs (#14 in defensive TO%) and teams have hurt UNC from deep (#14 in 3 PT%). UNC likes to play with tempo; they are #3 ACC team in possessions per game. Saturday's game is the only WF/UNC regular season matchup; so, a win would constitute a big step to gain advantage over UNC in the conference standings, ACC tourney seedings and maybe even NCAA tourney fortunes.
UNC Roster:
Versus Miami, UNC started:
G RJ Davis 6-0 Soph.: leads in assist and TOs (2:1); shoots 42% from 3; 13 ppg; 113 O rating;
G Caleb Love 6-4 Soph.: improved from 2021 -- 87 to 107 O rating; 2nd leading scorer; 15 ppg; 44% from 3; TO prone
F Leaky Black 6-8 Sr.: seems like he played with Jordan; still limited offensively - 2 threes on the season; 3.5 ppg; 2nd in assists
F Brady Manek 6-9 Sr.: OK transfer; loves the 3 (more 3 PT FGA than 2 PT FGA); 36% from 3; 62% from 2; 2nd in rebounds
C Armando Bacot 6-10 So.: All-American on the ugly team (see below); leading scorer 17 ppg and rebounder 11 rpg; doesn't shoot the 3; has been hot lately: 21/17 @ ND; 29/21 UVA; 29/12 GT; 15/12 Miami;
UNC's bench:
G Kerwin Walton 6-5 So.: started last year, but minutes down from 2021; 33% from 3; hasn't scored more than 6 in a game since November; may be heading to the transfer portal after the season
F-C Dawson Garcia 6-11: Marquette transfer; erratic has 3 20+ point games, including 26 against Purdue; has scored a total of 7 points since the start of 2022
BTW, early in the off-season transfer portal process, it was reported that WF was closing in on landing Justin McCoy a 6-8 transfer from UVA; Davis got the UNC job, and he convinced McCoy to head to Chapel Hill... hasn't exactly worked out for Justin as his minutes are down from his days in C'ville, and McCoy has scored a total of 18 points in 14 games this year. Sometimes, it works to your benefit to miss on a recruit.
Projection: KP projects a 78-76 WF win in 72 possessions. Like the over in this game. With the addition of Monsanto, WF is now a better offensive team and is deeper, which means WF can/will run more. UNC likes to play at a fast tempo too, and they won't shoot as horribly as they did against Miami (20% from 2). Think the winner of this game will get into the 80s. Controlling Bacot will be key to a win. Bacot has been mauling teams upfront lately. Walton and Sy will have their hands full. Feel like WF is due for a game with strong three point shooting luck. Hope its this Saturday. WF basketball is fun to follow again, and Saturday's game may be a season highlight. Can... not... wait...
2021-22 UNC: First year coach Hubert Davis leads his 12-5 (4-2 -- KP #37) to Winston. The Holes had a rough November giving up a lot of points to mediocre teams (87 to Brown; 83 to Charleston) and losing decisively to the quality teams they played (93-84 to Purdue; 89-72 to TN), but after falling to #53 in November, UNC started rolling up big wins (Michigan by 21, GT by 17 and 23, BC by 26, UVA by 16). Heading into this week, UNC had jumped up to #24 in KP ratings, and at that point, the "experts" were thrilled to conclude that the natural order of things had returned with Duke and UNC at the top of the ACC. Then, Duke lost at FSU, and the Canes smoked UNC by 28. As a result, several teams remain in the mix for the top spots in the conference, including our Deacs. Despite the blow out in Coral Gables, UNC's ACC metrics remain strong. The Holes are the #4 ACC team on offense, ranking #2 in the ACC in effective FG% (55%), #2 3 PT FG% (39%), #2 in FT % (81%). Like WF, UNC's primary weakness on offense is TOs (#11 in the ACC in TO%). Surprisingly, UNC ranks as the #2 ACC team in defense in conference games. UNC leads the ACC in preventing offensive rebounds and keeping the opponent off the foul line; they rank #2 in 2 PT FG defense. However, the Hole's don't force many TOs (#14 in defensive TO%) and teams have hurt UNC from deep (#14 in 3 PT%). UNC likes to play with tempo; they are #3 ACC team in possessions per game. Saturday's game is the only WF/UNC regular season matchup; so, a win would constitute a big step to gain advantage over UNC in the conference standings, ACC tourney seedings and maybe even NCAA tourney fortunes.
UNC Roster:
Versus Miami, UNC started:
G RJ Davis 6-0 Soph.: leads in assist and TOs (2:1); shoots 42% from 3; 13 ppg; 113 O rating;
G Caleb Love 6-4 Soph.: improved from 2021 -- 87 to 107 O rating; 2nd leading scorer; 15 ppg; 44% from 3; TO prone
F Leaky Black 6-8 Sr.: seems like he played with Jordan; still limited offensively - 2 threes on the season; 3.5 ppg; 2nd in assists
F Brady Manek 6-9 Sr.: OK transfer; loves the 3 (more 3 PT FGA than 2 PT FGA); 36% from 3; 62% from 2; 2nd in rebounds
C Armando Bacot 6-10 So.: All-American on the ugly team (see below); leading scorer 17 ppg and rebounder 11 rpg; doesn't shoot the 3; has been hot lately: 21/17 @ ND; 29/21 UVA; 29/12 GT; 15/12 Miami;
UNC's bench:
G Kerwin Walton 6-5 So.: started last year, but minutes down from 2021; 33% from 3; hasn't scored more than 6 in a game since November; may be heading to the transfer portal after the season
F-C Dawson Garcia 6-11: Marquette transfer; erratic has 3 20+ point games, including 26 against Purdue; has scored a total of 7 points since the start of 2022
BTW, early in the off-season transfer portal process, it was reported that WF was closing in on landing Justin McCoy a 6-8 transfer from UVA; Davis got the UNC job, and he convinced McCoy to head to Chapel Hill... hasn't exactly worked out for Justin as his minutes are down from his days in C'ville, and McCoy has scored a total of 18 points in 14 games this year. Sometimes, it works to your benefit to miss on a recruit.
Projection: KP projects a 78-76 WF win in 72 possessions. Like the over in this game. With the addition of Monsanto, WF is now a better offensive team and is deeper, which means WF can/will run more. UNC likes to play at a fast tempo too, and they won't shoot as horribly as they did against Miami (20% from 2). Think the winner of this game will get into the 80s. Controlling Bacot will be key to a win. Bacot has been mauling teams upfront lately. Walton and Sy will have their hands full. Feel like WF is due for a game with strong three point shooting luck. Hope its this Saturday. WF basketball is fun to follow again, and Saturday's game may be a season highlight. Can... not... wait...
