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MBB Game 22: WF Heads North To the Dome: Saturday 8 pm ACCN

Pilchard

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This Saturday, for the first time this season, WF is in a rematch contest, when the Deacs head to frigid Syracuse looking for a sweep of the Orange (WF has not swept an opponent since 2017, when the John Collins' lead Deacs beat a bad BC team 3 times).

Cuse in January looks like a lot of fun:

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Here is a link to the previous scouting report on the Orange prior to WF game 16: https://www.ogboards.com/forums/showthread.php/33310-MBB-Game-16-Cuse-Is-In-The-House-Saturday-2-pm-Bally-Sports

Cuse Update: On January 8, Cuse looked like it was going to win a tight game over the Deacs as the Orange led by 2 and had the ball with 30 seconds left.

Then, with the Deacs down 2, the following insane sequence led to OT:

- 19 seconds: Dallas Walton blocked a Cuse lay-up
- 18 seconds: LaRavia rebound
- 11 seconds: Mucius TO
- 11 seconds: LaRavia foul (Cuse not in the bonus)
- 10 seconds: Cuse TO
- Walton dunks off a feed from Alondes just before the end of regulation.

WF then pulled away in OT for 77-74 win.

Heading into the January 8 game, WF was 2-2 in the ACC and #53. Cuse was 1-2 in the ACC and #71. Three weeks later, WF is 7-3 in the ACC #29 in KP, and is riding a 4 game conference win streak (longest WF ACC regular season win streak since 2009), while Cuse has fallen to 3-6 in conference and #94 in KP. Despite Cuse's struggles they have played their best ball at the Dome. Cuse is 2-2 in conference at home and 1-4 on the road, with a 16 point Dome win over Pitt and a 13 point Dome win over Clemson (the Orange also defeated #33 Indiana at home). Cuse's offense in particular has played better at home as Cuse averages 76 points per game in its home conference games, but only 66 points per game in regulation in its road games. KP projects Cuse's home court as +3.5 points.

KP Projection: KP projects a 79-76 win for the Deacs in 71 possessions. Cuse is a high variance team as the Orange are overly reliant on the 3 point shot as 43% of all Cuse FGA are from beyond the arc in conference games (#2 in the ACC). WF has a huge advantage inside as WF is #1 ACC team in 2 PT FG% in conference games (63%) and Cuse is 14th in the conference in defending 2 PT shots. As witnessed in first Cuse/WF game, the Orange are particularly vulnerable inside when Jesse Edwards is not on the floor. Cuse is coming off a horrendous loss at Pitt (53 points - 19% from 3). WF can wear Cuse down by pounding the Orange inside. Think we will see Cuse's best effort on Saturday as Cuse is a good shooting team coming off a game where they could not hit a shot. Like the over, and expect the game to be tight like the first one.
 
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I have a bad feeling that Syracuse shoots the lights out and we aren't quite able to get over the hump in a frustrating game.

If I'm being honest, we should have lost that first game. We made a number of poor plays down the stretch and I never saw a replay of that crucial turnover where it looked like Boeheim touched the ball. But a win is a win and I am glad it worked out in our favor.

I might just be trying to dampen my enthusiasm with all of this negative talk. Hope we continue to play tough defense and beat the piss out of the Orange (who I can't stand).
 
To me we are playing much better basketball now than then and they are playing much worse basketball now than them. Plus we have Williamson and Monsanto. We should have lost that game. This one won't be as close.
 
orange on a losing streak... let's make sure that it continues. :thumbsup:
 
To me we are playing much better basketball now than then and they are playing much worse basketball now than them. Plus we have Williamson and Monsanto. We should have lost that game. This one won't be as close.

Williamson doesn't seem to get the same love as some of other Deacs, but he has been huge in the 4 game win streak:

27 mpg 13.5 ppg 9 for 14 from two 10 for 17 from three; hard to be more efficient than that. For the season, Davien's O rating of 117 is ahead of everyone on the team except for LaRavia.
 
Williamson doesn't seem to get the same love as some of other Deacs, but he has been huge in the 4 game win streak:

27 mpg 13.5 ppg 9 for 14 from two 10 for 17 from three; hard to be more efficient than that. For the season, Davien's O rating of 117 is ahead of everyone on the team except for LaRavia.

What he does isn't flashy. It's just effective and efficient. He's a really good 3rd/4th option on offense.
 
I have a bad feeling that Syracuse shoots the lights out and we aren't quite able to get over the hump in a frustrating game.

If I'm being honest, we should have lost that first game. We made a number of poor plays down the stretch and I never saw a replay of that crucial turnover where it looked like Boeheim touched the ball. But a win is a win and I am glad it worked out in our favor.

I might just be trying to dampen my enthusiasm with all of this negative talk. Hope we continue to play tough defense and beat the piss out of the Orange (who I can't stand).

I'm thinking negatively too, and probably for the same reason. The Brothers Boeheim aren't going to let Daddy's season go to hell if they can help it, and they can help it a lot better at the Carrier Dome. However I also think the Deacs are gaining resilience game by game, and that will help them. If we can manage to shoot a reasonable 3-pt percentage in the Dome, though, I think we pull away at the end.
 
What he does isn't flashy. It's just effective and efficient. He's a really good 3rd/4th option on offense.

We got 0 points from guards not named Williams in the first game. Having Williamson and Monsanto available for this one will make a difference.
 
Agree about Williamson and Monsanto... If either/both of them are on target from 3, that should be a HUGE help. Monsanto clearly not shy.
 
I'm a long suffering townie fan. I want to believe! We should win and this season is shaping up to be special. LET'S FUCKING GO!
 
Agree about Williamson and Monsanto... If either/both of them are on target from 3, that should be a HUGE help. Monsanto clearly not shy.

Whitt finding net once or twice woul also help. His shooting needs to get to a level where opposing defenses can't give him wide open looks - without paying a price.
 
Mucius is due to break out of his slump, Monsanto was dead-center but back iron on probably 4 of his last 6 attempts. Syracuse has length in their zone to bother Daivien from outside, but not the quickness to get out to the wings against shooters with size or to prevent Manman and Daivien from driving. I like Mucius and Monstanto to combine for 10 3's, and even if they don't get hot we can wear them down inside.

Sure we barely beat them last time around but Whitt started and shot 0%. Kenpom has no metric for Monsanto 2 games into joining the team out of nowhere. Not sure if Vegas has caught on to the whole Monsanto thing quite yet but it's more easy money if not.
 
Syracuse in January DOES look like a lot of fun. The high temperature for Saturday is about 12 degrees with a low of -1.

Bring your BIG jackets and thermal underwear!

Also, that's a large, vacuous arena (and cold I assume), so the idea we will be making a bunch of deep jumpers seems far fetched. That zone invites BRICKS from deep.

Teams that beat that zone typically have good ball handlers and passers that take it from the foul line and GO HARD and do quick hitters, with good internal passing - sort of what Duke does I guess. PLAY WITH CONFIDENCE and do not let the zone lull us into long dry spells.

Seems like Alondes, Mucius and Laravia would feast.
 
Cuse's zone forces opponents to shoot more than half of their FG attempts from deep - this is more than any other defense in the ACC - and that was the case with WF in the first game.

Of our ten ACC games, the Cuse game was the only one in which WF attempted more 3's (37) than 2's (21). We did get to the FT line (25 FT attempts), but even if every FT trip was a result of a foul on a 2-point shot, that does not explain the discrepancy.

Our offensive rebounding suffered, perhaps in part because of clanking 3's - but Cuse typically struggles on the defensive glass. Hopefully we do better in that area.

Hopeful that Daivien can attack the zone with dribble penetration, and that we get the transition game going to get some easy 2's before the zone can get set.
 
Pivotal game for my mental psyche after being a Wake fan for 31+ years (since I arrived on campus in 1990).

To get that third consecutive road win and fifth consecutive conference win is a mental hurdle the players probably don't feel, but after the last (lost) decade, wow, I sure do. Special year.

LFG.
 
Cuse's zone forces opponents to shoot more than half of their FG attempts from deep - this is more than any other defense in the ACC - and that was the case with WF in the first game.

Of our ten ACC games, the Cuse game was the only one in which WF attempted more 3's (37) than 2's (21). We did get to the FT line (25 FT attempts), but even if every FT trip was a result of a foul on a 2-point shot, that does not explain the discrepancy.

Our offensive rebounding suffered, perhaps in part because of clanking 3's - but Cuse typically struggles on the defensive glass. Hopefully we do better in that area.

Hopeful that Daivien can attack the zone with dribble penetration, and that we get the transition game going to get some easy 2's before the zone can get set.

Beating the defense down the floor and getting fast break points is always the easiest way to beat any defense.

Wake needs to exploit the serious size advantage that Walton, Sy and Marsh will have down low. The ball needs to find them often. Sometimes for shots, sometimes for kickouts as the defense collapses on them.
 
We're going to kick the shit out of Syracuse.
 
Just remember we decided, as the best 2pt shooting team in the ACC, to shoot 37 3's and only made 11 (I believe we took 21 2's).

I think we also learned that Carter can carve up a zone which helped us in the comeback.

If we shoot more 3's than than 2's we deserve to lose.

Zeke - 4-14 from 3 and Sy 2-7, if anyone except Monsanto and Williamson take more than 5 3's we also deserve to lose.
 
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