MBB Game 23: Deacs Host Pitt - Wednesday 7pm ESPN2

Deacs look to bounce back from a bad half of basketball at Cuse as WF hosts the Pitt Panthers this Wednesday 7 pm at LJVM. Here's a report on the Jeff Capel's squad (BTW, Jeff was a WF ball boy back in the day as his dad was an assistant at WF from 1986 to 1989):



2021-22 Pitt: The Panthers head into February with a 8-13 (3-7) mark -- #197 KP. While that's bad, early on, Pitt looked to be headed to be a historically bad ACC team when they opened the year with a 15 point home loss to Citadel, and 10 point home loss to UMBC. Pitt has improved since those early embarrassments, but the improvement has been limited. In ACC play, Pitt has the #13 offense and #8 defense. The Panthers have one strength on offense, drawing fouls. Pitt is a big team (#21 in the nation in height) and they don't shoot well; so, they focus on scoring inside. In conference play, the Panthers are #1 in FTA/FGA, and no ACC team gets a higher percentage of its points from the line. Other than getting to the line, Pitt is an abysmal offensive team. They have the worst TO rate in conference; the 2nd worst effective FG%, and even though Pitt looks to score inside, they are 2nd to last in 2 PT FG%. Probably due to their size, teams have struggled to score against Pitt, they are #2 in the ACC in defensive 3 PT FG% (32%), and they are #3 in the conference in effective FG% defense. Also, Pitt fouls a lot on defense (#13 in defensive FTA/FGA). Pitt plays slow. They average only 62.9 possessions per game in ACC play, and no ACC team has been able to speed them up as Panthers have not played a conference game with more than 68 possessions this season. Pitt was supposed to play @BC this past Saturday, but the game was postponed to Sunday because of a Northeast blizzard. BC stomped Pitt 69-55 (BC's largest win since December 3).

Roster:

Against BC, Pitt started:

G 6-1 Sr. Onyebuchi Ezeakudo: Walk-on has started the last 5 games; scored 11 in last week's win over Cuse; 2.2 ppg; 36% from the field;
G 6-4 Sr. Jamarius Burton: Wichita State and Texas Tech transfer; 2nd leading scorer 13 ppg; has scored in double figures in the last 15 games; 21 points against Cuse and 15 against BC this past week; 33% from 3
G 6-5 So. Femi Odukale: assist leader; 11.5 ppg; 29% from 3 - 1 for 7 from three over the past week; 39% from 2;
F 6-9 So. John Hugley: charged with car theft in the off season; leading scorer (15 ppg) and rebounder (8 rpg); scored 32, including 20 FTs in a home win over BC; struggles from 3 (17%)
C 6-10 Sr. Mouhamadou Gueye: Stony Brook transfer; leads team in blocks; 2nd in boards; had best game of his season in last week's win over Cuse 19 points, 10 boards, 2 assists, 3 blocks

the bench:

G 6-5 Sr. Ithiel Horton: played on Sunday, 11 points, after missing 6 straight games; 40% career 3 point shooter; Delaware transfer
F 6-7 So. William Jeffress: started first 16 games, but minutes have dropped recently; 18% from 3;

The Projection: KP projects a 74-60 Deac win in 67 possessions and 90% win probability. This game is projected to be WF's easiest game left on the schedule. Until recently, Pitt played a lot of close ACC games, but here are Pitt's last 3 road games:

@ Cuse: 61-77 loss
@ Clemson 48-75 loss
@ BC 56-69 loss

Ouch. That's bad. Also, WF is 12-1 at home this year, and the Deacs have won their last two conference home games by 22 and 30. Don't like laying double digits (particularly against a team that plays at such a slow tempo), but the Panthers are playing out the string, and WF has the size and interior defense (#1 in the ACC in 2 PT defense) to create matchup problems for Pitt; would lean WF to cover the large number as the schedule stiffens after Wednesday.

I'm going to write off the Syracuse debacle as an anomaly based on a number of factors, including: their zone, the revenge factor, conference road game, overconfidence, hot shooting, etc.

Assuming Wake Forest shows up to play on the defensive end, this could get ugly early. Not sure if I'll wager or not, but a backdoor cover would be a concern if it's a big number. Maybe a play on the 1st half number.

difficult for me to get past the fact that Pitt held Syracuse to 53 points for a game (67 possessions), and WF just gave up 55 points to Syracuse in a half (34 possessions)

granted, home/away, return game, etc...but yeesh

thatguy2016 said:

difficult for me to get past the fact that Pitt held Syracuse to 53 points for a game (67 possessions), and WF just gave up 55 points to Syracuse in a half (34 possessions)

granted, home/away, return game, etc...but yeesh

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Last Monday, WF beat BC by 30. Yesterday, BC beat Pitt by 13, and the game wasn't that close (BC led by 22) as BC went on a 45-16 mid-game run.

Wake by 50.

That Go Deacs Mickey Mouse sweatshirt is something I feel like people would want.

Also, just hiring Muggsy as an ambassador for home games seems like a good idea - I'd probably drive over, just to say hello to Muggsy pre-game.

I'd like to see more Hildreth, earlier in the game, against Pitt.

I love Hildreth, but he has had his chances and has been awful in ACC play. He has played in 10 games, 100 minutes, scored 24 points, and shot 40% from the line; 37% from the field and 0 for 9 from 3. His O rating in conference games is 75, which is the lowest on the team. He just hasn't earned the minutes, and with Monsanto now in the mix, there just is no reason to play him early. At this point, it's all about winning games.

Complacent Deac said:

That Go Deacs Mickey Mouse sweatshirt is something I feel like people would want.

Also, just hiring Muggsy as an ambassador for home games seems like a good idea - I'd probably drive over, just to say hello to Muggsy pre-game.

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My son would go nuts for that sweatshirt.

Pilchard said:

I love Hildreth, but he has had his chances and has been awful in ACC play. He has played in 10 games, 100 minutes, scored 24 points, and shot 40% from the line; 37% from the field and 0 for 9 from 3. His O rating in conference games is 75, which is the lowest on the team. He just hasn't earned the minutes, and with Monsanto now in the mix, there just is no reason to play him early. At this point, it's all about winning games.

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Look for Hildreth to go off. Pilchard has spoken!

Pilchard said:

I love Hildreth, but he has had his chances and has been awful in ACC play. He has played in 10 games, 100 minutes, scored 24 points, and shot 40% from the line; 37% from the field and 0 for 9 from 3. His O rating in conference games is 75, which is the lowest on the team. He just hasn't earned the minutes, and with Monsanto now in the mix, there just is no reason to play him early. At this point, it's all about winning games.

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4d chess i see you

Time to get back on track.
Wake 92
Pitt 71

92 points is a shit ton against a team like Pitt that limits possessions. Just getting to 75 points with less than 70 possessions will be a solid offensive showing.

Wake wins but it's closer than expected and a rock fight of a game. Hope I'm wrong.

deacz said:

Wake by 50.

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:thumbsup: Hope you're right.

27-14 duke leads notre dame at the half. high scoring battle apparently. Other teams can suck for a game too.

saus21 said:

27-14 duke leads notre dame at the half. high scoring battle apparently. Other teams can suck for a game too.

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Cory Alexander " I don't think Notre Dame is playing with any confidence on the offensive end" No shit they score 14 points at half shooting 19 percent.

Isn’t that brother Jason also in pic in lower right corner?….and also a ball boy at Wake….and also an assistant at Pitt now.

saus21 said:

27-14 duke leads notre dame at the half. high scoring battle apparently. Other teams can suck for a game too.

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Well yeah, but most teams suck for a game vs. Duke.

Any chance tomorrow’s game is impacted by the fertilizer plant fire?

Have wondered the same. How do you ask thousands of people to go to the Joel right now.