MBB Game 25: WF at NC State - Wednesday 7 pm - ACCN

WF, winners 6 of its last 7 ACC games, steams into Raleigh to take on the stumbling Wolfpack. Here is a quick take on Kevin Keatts squad:

NC State Coach: It all started out so well for Keatts. Taking over for the disgraced Mark Gottfried before the 2017-8 season, Keatts took the 2018 Pack to the NCAA tourney in his first year at the helm. Sadly for Pack fans, the 2018 NCAA one and done Pack has been the highlight of Keatts tenure in Raleigh, as the Pack have been on a steady slide since that season. Here are the Pack's final KP ratings under Keatts: #46, #41, #50, #71, #119, and no NCAA bids since year #1. Not exactly trending in the right direction. Further, every one of Keatts' teams since 2018 has finished the season with a worse rating than it had in December. So, his teams regress as the season goes on. This year, NC State peaked at 6-1 and #61 on December 1st. Since then, State has a 4-13 record and has dropped 58 spots in the rankings. KK's seat must be getting toasty.

2021-22 Pack: 10-14(3-10) #119. NC State's issues are easy to detect. DEFENSE. NC State is the worst defensive team in the conference. They are DFL in effective FG% defense (56.8%), in 3 PT% defense (42.5), 2nd to last in preventing offensive boards, 12th in 2 PT defense (53%) and DFL in overall defensive efficiency in conference games. State has yet to hold an ACC opponent to less than 1 point per possession. WF has done that 7 times. If State doesn't turnover the opponent, they either get an open three or a layup. State is a middle of the pack (get it?) offensive team. They are heavily reliant on the three as among ACC teams only VT generates a higher percentage of its offense from behind the arc. In State's 3 conference wins, they lit it up from deep (38% against VT; 48% against L'ville; 55% against UVA). Outside of Seabron drives to the basket, State doesn't score inside (47% from 2 in conference games), and doesn't get to the line often (14th in the ACC in FTA/FGA).

Roster:

State's fortunes took a hit early when C Manny Bates went down in game #1. Without Bates, the Pack lack an inside presence on offense or defense.

In Saturday's home loss to ND, the Pack started:

G 6-4 Fr. Terquavion Smith: team leader in 3s made; will shoot from Curry range; 37% on the season; 16 ppg; more TOs than assists; took 15 threes in the loss to Cuse;
G 6-3 Jr. Casey Morsell: UVA transfer; was a horrid 3 point shooter at UVA - 21%; has been hot lately - 51% in ACC games; scored in double figures 4 of the last 6 games
F 6-7 So. Dereon Sebron: had his first double figure game as a frosh against WF; has been a dominant scorer this year: 18 ppg; 55% from 2; also leads the Pack in rebounds (9 rpg) and assists (3.5); can take the ball to the rack; struggled from 3 -- 25%; NBA future
F 6-7 Sr. Jericole Hellums: three year starter; 14 ppg; 41% from 3; coming off his two worst games of the year: scoreless against ND; 3 points against Cuse
C 6-10 So. Jaylon Gibson: started the last two after starting C Dowuona suffered an injury; scored a career high 14 against Cuse last week; has never attempted a three

The bench:

C 6-11 So. Ebenezer Dowuona: coming back from injury; played 18 minutes against ND; can't score -- 4 ppg; leads team in blocks; lacks skill
G 6-3 So. Cam Hayes: has had a disappointing season; started early, but hasn't started since January 1; shooting 21% from 3; 40% from 2;
G 6-1 Sr. Thomas Allen: Nebraska transfer; held scoreless in 4 of the last 6 games; solid assist rate based on limited minutes played

The Projection: KP projects a 78-74 WF in in 70 possessions. WF is a bad matchup for the Pack, as WF is the best team in the ACC in scoring inside, and NC State interior defense is toothless. State has two paths to victory: forcing TOs and hitting a ton of 3s. While it was sweet to get a win in Tallahassee, WF had massive TO problems, and fully expect NC State to over pressure the ball based on WF's TO problems, and the knowledge that the Pack has no hope of defending the Deacs around the basket. If WF can protect the ball just a little and keep State from getting off from deep, WF wins. Would be sweet as WF has won a total of ONE game at NC State since the nut punch game on March 6, 2005. That's 1-15 on the road in Raleigh.

"lacks skill"

I love it.

Feels like two teams heading in different directions. Would love to beat the shit out of them in Raleigh.

Much like @Cuse, I will never take @State for granted. Gonna be a tough game.

FWIW, according to KP, WF will be favored in 4 of its final 6 regular season games; and this game has the shortest line (4 points) of those games. If WF wins all of those games that it will be favored in and gets to 24-7 (14-6) heading into the ACC tournament, the only NCAA question for WF will be about seeding. Even if WF dropped one of those games, WF would be an NCAA lock.

Seen State a limited number of times but it was obvious to me that they play no defense (aka Manning type). Man to man and no help once they get beat which is often. Their offense looks like a one on one show with an occasional pick aka an AAU team that is not very well coached. That being said it most likely will be a tough game but I like our chances due to our defense and their lack thereof

Pilchard said:

FWIW, according to KP, WF will be favored in 4 of its final 6 regular season games; and this game has the shortest line (4 points) of those games. If WF wins all of those games that it will be favored in and gets to 24-7 (14-6) heading into the ACC tournament, the only NCAA question for WF will be about seeding. Even if WF dropped one of those games, WF would be an NCAA lock.

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Favored in 4 of the final six contest. Know Duke we will be an underdog but who is the other? ND or away game at Clemson?

tbird said:

Favored in 4 of the final six contest. Know Duke we will be an underdog but who is the other? ND or away game at Clemson?

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away at Clemson

WF would be favored (by KP) on a neutral floor against any ACC team not named Duke

KP says WF currently has a 69% chance (nice) of beating ND

State gets to play its Super Bowl before the actual Super Bowl.

saus21 said:

Seen State a limited number of times but it was obvious to me that they play no defense (aka Manning type). Man to man and no help once they get beat which is often. Their offense looks like a one on one show with an occasional pick aka an AAU team that is not very well coached. That being said it most likely will be a tough game but I like our chances due to our defense and their lack thereof

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I had a similar impression. They have some skilled players (Seabron especially) and the defense was sketchy af. Looked like there was little to no continuity on offense. Keatts was borderline laughing on the sideline at some of the boneheaded plays.

Really hope we can get a nice contingent of Wake fans over in Raleigh for this one. I’ll be making the trip from campus with a few friends.

Wake shows their muscle.
Wake 82 NCST 71

I haven't watched State at all but from what I have read I think we have the horses to dominate this game on the interior. Without them having a capable traditional center, guys like Jake and Dallas should be able to post up and score all day long. I hope we place a huge emphasis on 3 point defense as it seems like State's only real hope is getting hot from behind the arc. I think we'll see a lot of time with both Daivien an Alondes on the floor in the first half as they are probably our two most capable defenders in the rotation at the guard spot, and hopefully we are able to build up a lead enough to see Carter and others get major second half minutes. Two most important things in my book will be 3 point defense and taking care of the ball. We have shown time and time again that when we can take care of the ball we get open looks inside, and this should be especially easy against State's defense. Don't turn it over and don't get lit up form 3 and we should have a nice and relatively stress free win.

First game I'll be able to attend this year. I'm pumped!

I doubt we do it, because I don't think we have all year, but this wouldn't be a bad game to throw some zone at them. ND's zone absolutely baffled State, to the tune of like 3 points in the first 8 minutes. Really neutralizes Seabron's ability to get to the basket, which is by far their most effective offense.

I feel like man defense is fine. We’ve been playing it well.

Just hoping ManMan gets the benefit of the same whistles as Seabron gets.

State gives up a ton of wide open looks from 3 but this is not the game for ManMan, Mucius or Walton to be chucking from behind the arc.

Limit turnovers, drive the ball and feed the post.

Rinse and repeat.

Dream is due for a bounce back game. Would like to see us build a little lead then bring in Monsanto to hit some 3's and run away from them. Away games are never easy but this seems like a great matchup for us.

hopefully Dream is healthy

Forbes praised his P&R defense at FSU as "elite" (made a point to say, "not good...not great...elite") despite missing practice last Thursday and Friday and having an off game offensively

I'm hoping for a win with Jake and ManMan playing 35 minutes at most

Wake -4