MBB Game 27: WF at Duke -- Tuesday 7 pm: ESPN

Deacs look to bounce back from Saturday's loss to the Canes when WF visits Cameron Indoor Stadium this Tuesday.

Standings: Duke is currently tied for first in the ACC at 11-3 with Notre Dame (Duke holds the tiebreaker). WF is tied for 5th in the ACC with UVA (WF holds the tiebreaker). Duke is 5-2 in the ACC at home with a two point loss to Miami, and a one point loss to UVA (Duke's last home game). Duke also narrowly beat Clemson at home 71-69. Deacs need to win to keep pace with the other ACC teams at the top of the standings as most of those teams play soft opponents this week (ND hosts BC; NC hosts Pitt; Miami plays at L'ville; UVA plays at VT).

Duke: Duke is 21-4 (11-3) #6. The Devils are the #3 ACC team on offense (#1 in offensive rebounding:; #3 in 2 PT FG%; #4 in effective FG%, but #10 in TO rate and #13 in FT%). Duke is the #1 team in the ACC on defense (#1 in effective FG% and 3 PT FG% defense; #2 in 2 PT FG% defense; interestingly Duke is last in the ACC in defensive TO rate -- which is a good thing for WF fans who are sick of watching the Deacs turn it over). Duke is only #10 in the ACC in tempo averaging 66 possessions a game. Last time out, Duke beat BC 72-61. 5 Devils players reached double figures, and Banchero led them with 16 points 14 boards 3 assists. Duke beat WF 76-64 on January 12. That was AJ Griffin's first start, and he scored 22. Griffin is shooting 50% from 3 in ACC games, when he is hitting from deep; Duke is impossible to defend with Banchero and Williams down low. Wake Forest has not won in Cameron since January 11, 1997. Tim Duncan's senior year. Hard to believe. WF has had some close calls. Most recently, in 2019, WF lost 71-70 when a Chaundee Brown bank shot rimmed out just before the buzzer sounded.

Projection: KP projects a 78-67 Duke win in 70 possessions a 17% chance of a WF victory. Think WF will play well. Last time WF lost to Duke, the Deacs rebounded with a win at UVA. The last time WF played off a loss (at Cuse), WF ran Pitt out of the Joel, leading by 21 at the half. Duke has stupid talent. In the Sporting News latest 2022 NBA draft projection, Duke has 5 first round picks and Banchero is the projected the #1 overall pick: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/2022-nba-mock-draft-paolo-banchero-jabari-smith-jr-chet-holmgren/hkm3kmqwaednxn3nq4fxldwo So, as always, Duke has the massive talent edge, but as reflected in the Devils' games at vaunted Cameron, Duke often fails to rise to the occasion. Deacs will play hungry. According to KP, WF will be favored in its final 4 games, after Tuesday's tilt.

92-74

I think 17% chance to win is about 16% too high.

I’ll say again…I think this is the year we beat them in Cameron.

I believe, we have the longest ACC road losing streak at Cameron, of 22 games (we didn't play there for 2 years) for any ACC team. As noted we have not won there since 1997, Tim Duncan's senior year.

Except for 2017 (5 points) and 2019 (1 point) we have not lost by less than 10 in Cameron.

I'm not sure but this may be one of the top ACC losing streaks, at least behind Clemson's former streak at UNC.

I’m seeing Duke -10.5

ESPN is the telecast outlet for tomorrow's game.

Forbes talked a lot about effort, playing hard and wanting it during the Miami post-game.

I'm not saying we are going to win, but I'll be shocked if we don't put up a big fight in this game. Maybe it gets a bit physical. Maybe a coach gets a T. Something to get the team fired up.

It is Forbes' last chance to do something big against K at Duke.

Maybe it's just the bad taste of the Miami loss in my mouth, but I think Duke smokes us tomorrow night in a frustrating game that I won't watch because I'll scare my children with my anger and rage.

But looking forward to a convincing bounceback win over Notre Dame!

If we lose to Duke tomorrow, we have to go 4-0 to make the NCAAT. At WORSE 3-1 with 2 wins in the ACCT.

Our resume looks too much like 23-8 Virginia Tech in 2009 who didn't make the tourney.

23-8(13-7) regular season is going to have us sweating it out on selection Sunday. Go 2-1 in the ACCT and we will be fine.

We're going to get smoked at Duke. Need to win out the last 4.

CreamyGoodness said:

23-8(13-7) regular season is going to have us sweating it out on selection Sunday. Go 2-1 in the ACCT and we will be fine.

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playing along with this - if we lose to Duke, win 3 of of our last 4 to finish 13-7, KP projects we would be the #5 seed in the ACCT, playing the winner of #12-#13 Pitt-BC (very winnable game) and then playing the #4 seed, most likely Miami, in what would be a must-win ACCT quarterfinal game.

I...would prefer we get to 14-6

DeacsATS said:

Maybe it's just the bad taste of the Miami loss in my mouth, but I think Duke smokes us tomorrow night in a frustrating game that I won't watch because I'll scare my children with my anger and rage.

But looking forward to a convincing bounceback win over Notre Dame!

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This is where I am as well. Hope to be proven wrong (re: Duke).

Same. We are headed toward a must win game against ND and we need to get to the ACCT semis from there to make the tournament.

Didn't know what to think about the Duke game, but with everyone here assuming an easy Duke win, starting to think WF has a solid chance tomorrow. UVA and Clemson are the last two teams to have visited Cameron, UVA won and Clemson lost by 2. WF is better than both. Duke's D is last in the ACC in forcing TOs. Duke gets the vast majority of its points on 2 PT shots (55%; 3rd most in the ACC). WF leads the ACC at defending the 2 PT shot. WF matches up with Duke as well as anyone in the ACC. Last time WF played Duke, Carter Whitt started as Davien was returning from COVID and Monsanto was still out. WF now gets Williamson and Monsanto in form. WF is a much better team now, and much more difficult to defend.

If AJ Griffin has another 147 "O" rating against the Deacs, then yes, it is likely a rough night, but I don't get the takes here that this game is unwinnable. WF can't compete at Duke? F that. Yes, WF had a craptastic last 19 minutes after it led Miami by 10 early in the 2nd half; even so, stunned by the negativity that one bad stretch has had on the perception of WF here. Miami is a tough team. The Canes outplayed WF but it was one game. WF has the staff to make adjustments and the talent to play with anyone in the conference. Including... DOOK.

Pilchard said:

Didn't know what to think about the Duke game, but with everyone here assuming an easy Duke win, starting to think WF has a solid chance tomorrow. UVA and Clemson are the last two teams to have visited Cameron, UVA won and Clemson lost by 2. WF is better than both. Duke's D is last in the ACC in forcing TOs. Duke gets the vast majority of its points on 2 PT shots (55%; 3rd most in the ACC). WF leads the ACC at defending the 2 PT shot. WF matches up with Duke as well as anyone in the ACC. Last time WF played Duke, Carter Whitt started as Davien was returning from COVID and Monsanto was still out. WF now gets Williamson and Monsanto in form. WF is a much better team now, and much more difficult to defend.

If AJ Griffin has another 147 "O" rating against the Deacs, then yes, it is likely a rough night, but I don't get the takes here that this game is unwinnable. WF can't compete at Duke? F that. Yes, WF had a craptastic last 19 minutes after it led Miami by 10 early in the 2nd half; even so, stunned by the negativity that one bad stretch has had on the perception of WF here. Miami is a tough team. The Canes outplayed WF but it was one game. WF has the staff to make adjustments and the talent to play with anyone in the conference. Including... DOOK.

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That's what I am talking about. Fuck K and all the fucking asshole jackass douchebag dookies

We also shot a putrid 2-of-16 from 3PT last time. Unlikely to happen again, with a healthy Williamson and Monsanto.

I'll be surprised if Wake doesn't respond to the Miami loss and take the Blue Devils to the wire. It should be one of the best ESPN basketball games of the year.

Pilchard said:

Didn't know what to think about the Duke game, but with everyone here assuming an easy Duke win, starting to think WF has a solid chance tomorrow. UVA and Clemson are the last two teams to have visited Cameron, UVA won and Clemson lost by 2. WF is better than both. Duke's D is last in the ACC in forcing TOs. Duke gets the vast majority of its points on 2 PT shots (55%; 3rd most in the ACC). WF leads the ACC at defending the 2 PT shot. WF matches up with Duke as well as anyone in the ACC. Last time WF played Duke, Carter Whitt started as Davien was returning from COVID and Monsanto was still out. WF now gets Williamson and Monsanto in form. WF is a much better team now, and much more difficult to defend.

If AJ Griffin has another 147 "O" rating against the Deacs, then yes, it is likely a rough night, but I don't get the takes here that this game is unwinnable. WF can't compete at Duke? F that. Yes, WF had a craptastic last 19 minutes after it led Miami by 10 early in the 2nd half; even so, stunned by the negativity that one bad stretch has had on the perception of WF here. Miami is a tough team. The Canes outplayed WF but it was one game. WF has the staff to make adjustments and the talent to play with anyone in the conference. Including... DOOK.

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TBH, I’m mostly just trying to keep my expectations low because I was convinced we’d beat Miami by double digits the other day. That one hurt.