Pilchard
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When we look back at the 2021-22 WF MBB season, Saturday's game against ND will likely be viewed as a milestone game. A win, and WF jumps to 11-6 in the ACC with 3 games left against teams essentially playing out the string, and the Deacs' NCAA resume will be looking solid. A loss and WF will be 10-7, having lost 3 in a row, and lacking future regular season opportunities to knock off an ACC contender or to improve its NCAA resume -- which would be a less than perfect to head into the last two weeks of the season. Here is a quick take on the Irish:
2021-22 Season: ND sits at 19-7 and tied for first in the ACC at 12-3. After getting props in the pre-season polls, ND fell on its face early. ND's stumbling start to the season included an inexplicable blow-out ACC conference season opening loss to BC by 16. After losing to Indiana on December 18 to fall to 4-5, the Irish were heading to another disappointing season (ND has not qualified for the NCAA tournament since 2017). However, Mike Brey rallied his team, and ND has now ripped off 15 wins in its last 17 games. Sounds impressive, and it kind of is, but ND has only 4 top 100 wins during that stretch (NC, Clemson and UVA in South Bend, and a 4 point win at Miami) and no wins among the top 40 teams in the nation during their current streak. ND's two losses since December 18: 79-73 @ VT and an ugly 57-43 rock fight to Duke. With an unbalanced schedule, ND has no home and home ACC series against any of the top 7 teams in conference. As a result of an easy conference schedule and the poor start to the season, ND lacks quality wins and needs Saturday's game as much as WF does. While ND currently lacks a signature conference win, the Irish did beat #3 Kentucky in an December OOC game. When the committee is parsing out the last teams in the NCAA tournament, ND's win over the top 5 Wildcats will help a lot; WF has nothing on its resume like that. After playing the Deacs, ND will be favored in its final 4 games (Cuse, GT and Pitt at home; @FSU).
Analytics: In recent years, ND's primary issue has been defense, as they have been a bottom 4 ACC team in defense each of the last 3 years. The Irish changed their defensive philosophy heading into this season adopting UVA's pack-line defense approach, and that has made a huge difference. ND is rated as the #3 ACC team on defense. Creating a typical pack-line stat model: the Irish do not foul (#1 in the ACC in fewest FTA allowed per FGA), ND keeps team off the offensive glass and they defend the 3 well (#2 in the ACC in 3 PT defense), but they do not force TOs (#12 in defensive TOs forced). Offensively, ND is heavily reliant on the 3 as ND shoots 38% from behind the arc in ACC play and 38% of their offense comes from 3s (#3 in the ACC). ND doesn't turn the ball over (#2 in TO rate). The Irish don't offensive rebound (DFL in offensive rebound rate) and don't get to the line often (#11 in offensive FT rate). The Irish play at slow tempo -- #12 in the ACC averaging 65 possessions a game.
Irish Roster: ND returned 4 of its 5 starters from last year (G Prentiss Hubb, G Cormac Ryan, G/F Dane Goodwin and F Nate Laszewski), and then added coveted Yale transfer Paul Atkinson (WF offered), and freshman G Blake Wesley. Currently, ATS's love-interest Nate Laszewski comes off the bench as he has just returned from injury. In last night's OT win over BC, all 6 of those players scored double digits with Goodwin (23 points) and Wesley (18 points) leading the Irish. ND has no bench. In last night's OT win, ND played only 7 players, and Goodwin and Wesley logged over 40 minutes each. Goodwin has been an under-the-radar stud for ND this year. He is shooting 47% from 3 on the season, and his "O" rating is an impressive 123. Goodwin has scored in double figures in every Irish game this year, except for the loss to Duke when Goodwin went 0 for 7 from the field and did not score.
Analytics: KP projects a 73-68 WF win in 68 possessions. This looks like a favorable WF matchup on multiple fronts. Scheduling: WF has an extra day to prepare, is at home, and ND is coming off an OT win while playing only 7 guys. Analytics: as we all know, WF's primary issue has been ball security; ND's pack-line approach doesn't force many TOs; ND's weakness on D is defending the 2 PT shot, and WF leads the ACC in 2 PT%. There is even a revenge angle, as ND stole a win over WF in the ACC tournament last year. All of that said, ND is a dangerous opponent, they are experienced, and as the win over KY and the win at Miami proved, the Irish can beat anyone. Other than home loss to Duke, ND has not played a bad game since the December 3 loss to BC; they will not throw up on themselves like many of WF recent opponents have. WF will have to earn this win. Feel like Forbes will have the team ready to play its "A game" on Saturday. Unless ND has an outlier game where the Irish go bonkers from 3, WF wins, and the discussion can more comfortably turn to where WF will be seeded than whether WF gets a bid. Lets get this done.
2021-22 Season: ND sits at 19-7 and tied for first in the ACC at 12-3. After getting props in the pre-season polls, ND fell on its face early. ND's stumbling start to the season included an inexplicable blow-out ACC conference season opening loss to BC by 16. After losing to Indiana on December 18 to fall to 4-5, the Irish were heading to another disappointing season (ND has not qualified for the NCAA tournament since 2017). However, Mike Brey rallied his team, and ND has now ripped off 15 wins in its last 17 games. Sounds impressive, and it kind of is, but ND has only 4 top 100 wins during that stretch (NC, Clemson and UVA in South Bend, and a 4 point win at Miami) and no wins among the top 40 teams in the nation during their current streak. ND's two losses since December 18: 79-73 @ VT and an ugly 57-43 rock fight to Duke. With an unbalanced schedule, ND has no home and home ACC series against any of the top 7 teams in conference. As a result of an easy conference schedule and the poor start to the season, ND lacks quality wins and needs Saturday's game as much as WF does. While ND currently lacks a signature conference win, the Irish did beat #3 Kentucky in an December OOC game. When the committee is parsing out the last teams in the NCAA tournament, ND's win over the top 5 Wildcats will help a lot; WF has nothing on its resume like that. After playing the Deacs, ND will be favored in its final 4 games (Cuse, GT and Pitt at home; @FSU).
Analytics: In recent years, ND's primary issue has been defense, as they have been a bottom 4 ACC team in defense each of the last 3 years. The Irish changed their defensive philosophy heading into this season adopting UVA's pack-line defense approach, and that has made a huge difference. ND is rated as the #3 ACC team on defense. Creating a typical pack-line stat model: the Irish do not foul (#1 in the ACC in fewest FTA allowed per FGA), ND keeps team off the offensive glass and they defend the 3 well (#2 in the ACC in 3 PT defense), but they do not force TOs (#12 in defensive TOs forced). Offensively, ND is heavily reliant on the 3 as ND shoots 38% from behind the arc in ACC play and 38% of their offense comes from 3s (#3 in the ACC). ND doesn't turn the ball over (#2 in TO rate). The Irish don't offensive rebound (DFL in offensive rebound rate) and don't get to the line often (#11 in offensive FT rate). The Irish play at slow tempo -- #12 in the ACC averaging 65 possessions a game.
Irish Roster: ND returned 4 of its 5 starters from last year (G Prentiss Hubb, G Cormac Ryan, G/F Dane Goodwin and F Nate Laszewski), and then added coveted Yale transfer Paul Atkinson (WF offered), and freshman G Blake Wesley. Currently, ATS's love-interest Nate Laszewski comes off the bench as he has just returned from injury. In last night's OT win over BC, all 6 of those players scored double digits with Goodwin (23 points) and Wesley (18 points) leading the Irish. ND has no bench. In last night's OT win, ND played only 7 players, and Goodwin and Wesley logged over 40 minutes each. Goodwin has been an under-the-radar stud for ND this year. He is shooting 47% from 3 on the season, and his "O" rating is an impressive 123. Goodwin has scored in double figures in every Irish game this year, except for the loss to Duke when Goodwin went 0 for 7 from the field and did not score.
Analytics: KP projects a 73-68 WF win in 68 possessions. This looks like a favorable WF matchup on multiple fronts. Scheduling: WF has an extra day to prepare, is at home, and ND is coming off an OT win while playing only 7 guys. Analytics: as we all know, WF's primary issue has been ball security; ND's pack-line approach doesn't force many TOs; ND's weakness on D is defending the 2 PT shot, and WF leads the ACC in 2 PT%. There is even a revenge angle, as ND stole a win over WF in the ACC tournament last year. All of that said, ND is a dangerous opponent, they are experienced, and as the win over KY and the win at Miami proved, the Irish can beat anyone. Other than home loss to Duke, ND has not played a bad game since the December 3 loss to BC; they will not throw up on themselves like many of WF recent opponents have. WF will have to earn this win. Feel like Forbes will have the team ready to play its "A game" on Saturday. Unless ND has an outlier game where the Irish go bonkers from 3, WF wins, and the discussion can more comfortably turn to where WF will be seeded than whether WF gets a bid. Lets get this done.
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