Pilchard
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Our 21-7 (11-6) Deacs play their 29th game of the season on Wednesday, and after Wednesday's game, WF will have finally played every ACC team once. Yay. WF heads into Littlejohn Coliseum with a frightening recent history against Clemson under Brad Brownell. WF is 2-12 against Brownell since he got the Clemson job in 2010-11 -- keep in mind that before Brownell took the Clemson job WF was 83-47 against Clemson; WF has more wins over Clemson than any other D1 basketball team. During the Brownell era, WF is winless in Littlejohn. In fact, WF has not won at Clemson since January 17, 2009. BTW, WF and Clemson entered that 2009 game both at 16-0. WF won, and ascended to #1 in the country for one week. WF then lost 3 of its next 4 games in 2009, and WF basketball has essentially been a non-factor, until hopefully now.
2021-22 Tigers: On December 22, 2021, Clemson destroyed UVA in C'ville 67-50 to improve to 9-4 (1-1) in the ACC and #38 in KP. Since then, the Tigers have been wobbled by injuries, a suspension and surprisingly poor defense as the bottom has fallen out of their season. Clemson is 3-11 since that 17 point thrashing of UVA. In early February, the Tigers lost starter and their highest rated offensive player Hunter Tyson to injury, and then, on Saturday, one minute into the game, Clemson's leading scorer and rebounder, PJ Hall, left the game against L'ville with a foot injury. Hall had been nursing his foot injury for most of the season, but if he is out, Clemson lacks any size and consistent scoring punch. Even with Hall, Clemson's only wins in 2022 were over #123 NC State, #168 Pit and #100 FSU. Clemson has not beaten a team rated above #75 all year; WF is #31.
Analytics: Clemson is a below average ACC team on offense (#10) and on defense (#11). With Hall, Clemson focused its offense on scoring inside as Clemson was #5 in the ACC in points in the paint, and Clemson has shot 50% from 2 (#7 in conference games). Without, Hall, Clemson lacks a legit scoring weapon. While Clemson has long played mediocre offense under Brownell, their calling card has been defense. Not so, this year. Clemson is #13 in the ACC in effective FG% and the Tigers have particularly struggled stopping teams from scoring down low (ACC opponents have made 53% of their 2 PT shots against the Tigers -- #12 in the conference). Clemson is also foul prone (#12 in defensive FT rate) and is below average in forcing defensive TOs (#9). Clemson's defense is even worse when Hall is out, as L'ville, who has struggled on offense all year, shot 64% from 2 in Saturday's 70-61 win over Clemson. Clemson is #8 in the ACC in tempo averaging 67 possessions in conference games.
Roster: With Hall and Tyson out against L'ville, Jr. G Al-Amir Dawes led the Tigers with 18 points -- all on 3s (he is 41% from the season from deep); Youngstown State transfer 6-6 F Naz Bohannon chipped in 11 points on Saturday (he has double figures in 3 of his last 4 games), and So G/F Chase Hunter, who has started since Hunter Tyson went down, had 10. Without the 6-10 Hall, Clemson has no size as their tallest player to get regular minutes is 6-7, and that is Fr. Ian Schieffelin, who just started getting regular minutes this month. Clemson went to the end of their bench to use 6-10 Fr. Ben Middlebrooks for 14 minutes against L'ville, Middlebrooks has a total of 18 points on the season. IOW, Clemson's roster is small and depleted at this point.
Projection: KP projects a 74-73 WF win in 69 possessions. This projection has not been adjusted for the loss of Tyson and the possible loss of Hall. If Hall is out, would expect the line to be WF -4, and it may get higher. Realize WF is coming off two big games against Duke and ND, and WF has not won at Clemson in 13 years, but hard to think of an ACC team that is a better matchup for the Deacs as Clemson lacks size and can't defend the paint, while WF is #12 in the nation in height, and may be the best inside scoring team in the ACC in years. Also, when Clemson does score, it's typically inside, and WF is the best defensive team in the conference in stopping 2 point scoring. WF will need to defend Dawes from deep, but without an inside scoring threat there isn't a big need to help down low. In addition, there is a legit revenge factor in this game. Last year's home loss to Clemson 60-39 was the low point for WF under Forbes. That game was awful (Williamson had 16; Mucius 13 -- the rest of the roster scored 10 points in 143 minutes of game time). This is WF's last road game of the season, and WF has already broken long road droughts at FSU, GT, UVA and NC State. So, like the Deacs to win, and the conditions are favorable for a cover. Good teams win at Clemson (ND just beat Clemson in Littlejon by 15); WF is a good team.
2021-22 Tigers: On December 22, 2021, Clemson destroyed UVA in C'ville 67-50 to improve to 9-4 (1-1) in the ACC and #38 in KP. Since then, the Tigers have been wobbled by injuries, a suspension and surprisingly poor defense as the bottom has fallen out of their season. Clemson is 3-11 since that 17 point thrashing of UVA. In early February, the Tigers lost starter and their highest rated offensive player Hunter Tyson to injury, and then, on Saturday, one minute into the game, Clemson's leading scorer and rebounder, PJ Hall, left the game against L'ville with a foot injury. Hall had been nursing his foot injury for most of the season, but if he is out, Clemson lacks any size and consistent scoring punch. Even with Hall, Clemson's only wins in 2022 were over #123 NC State, #168 Pit and #100 FSU. Clemson has not beaten a team rated above #75 all year; WF is #31.
Analytics: Clemson is a below average ACC team on offense (#10) and on defense (#11). With Hall, Clemson focused its offense on scoring inside as Clemson was #5 in the ACC in points in the paint, and Clemson has shot 50% from 2 (#7 in conference games). Without, Hall, Clemson lacks a legit scoring weapon. While Clemson has long played mediocre offense under Brownell, their calling card has been defense. Not so, this year. Clemson is #13 in the ACC in effective FG% and the Tigers have particularly struggled stopping teams from scoring down low (ACC opponents have made 53% of their 2 PT shots against the Tigers -- #12 in the conference). Clemson is also foul prone (#12 in defensive FT rate) and is below average in forcing defensive TOs (#9). Clemson's defense is even worse when Hall is out, as L'ville, who has struggled on offense all year, shot 64% from 2 in Saturday's 70-61 win over Clemson. Clemson is #8 in the ACC in tempo averaging 67 possessions in conference games.
Roster: With Hall and Tyson out against L'ville, Jr. G Al-Amir Dawes led the Tigers with 18 points -- all on 3s (he is 41% from the season from deep); Youngstown State transfer 6-6 F Naz Bohannon chipped in 11 points on Saturday (he has double figures in 3 of his last 4 games), and So G/F Chase Hunter, who has started since Hunter Tyson went down, had 10. Without the 6-10 Hall, Clemson has no size as their tallest player to get regular minutes is 6-7, and that is Fr. Ian Schieffelin, who just started getting regular minutes this month. Clemson went to the end of their bench to use 6-10 Fr. Ben Middlebrooks for 14 minutes against L'ville, Middlebrooks has a total of 18 points on the season. IOW, Clemson's roster is small and depleted at this point.
Projection: KP projects a 74-73 WF win in 69 possessions. This projection has not been adjusted for the loss of Tyson and the possible loss of Hall. If Hall is out, would expect the line to be WF -4, and it may get higher. Realize WF is coming off two big games against Duke and ND, and WF has not won at Clemson in 13 years, but hard to think of an ACC team that is a better matchup for the Deacs as Clemson lacks size and can't defend the paint, while WF is #12 in the nation in height, and may be the best inside scoring team in the ACC in years. Also, when Clemson does score, it's typically inside, and WF is the best defensive team in the conference in stopping 2 point scoring. WF will need to defend Dawes from deep, but without an inside scoring threat there isn't a big need to help down low. In addition, there is a legit revenge factor in this game. Last year's home loss to Clemson 60-39 was the low point for WF under Forbes. That game was awful (Williamson had 16; Mucius 13 -- the rest of the roster scored 10 points in 143 minutes of game time). This is WF's last road game of the season, and WF has already broken long road droughts at FSU, GT, UVA and NC State. So, like the Deacs to win, and the conditions are favorable for a cover. Good teams win at Clemson (ND just beat Clemson in Littlejon by 15); WF is a good team.
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