My daughter just started getting into baseball this last year (I was a huge fan but haven't watched in 10+ years), so instead of talking about players and how the teams chances are for the playoffs, I get to spend a lot of time talking about the collective bargaining agreement, service time, and how pitchers are using substances to increase spin rate.
I think the players got the wrong end of the deal from the last agreement (average player's salaries have gone down the last few years), and the owners seem to hold all of the cards and are not showing any signs of budging.
I think the owners will cancel the season just to spite the players.
I think the biggest change that needs to be made is that the commissioner does not need to be elected by the owners. I know this is common across all professional leagues, but baseball could really use a neutral commisioner.
Player salaries decreased in large part bc analytics showed you were better off letting younger players play than over paying for many of the FA's on the market.
Seems to me like both sides want to have their cake and eat it too.
1 - The players want no salary cap and higher salaries and quicker FA for younger players.
2 - The owners no doubt would want a cap and are probably freaked out about how much they have to invest to produce a servicable MLB player (years in the minors, more random outcomes than other sports) which makes them less inclined to let players go to FA more quickly.
3 - Fans want more competitive balance and less tanking. I think the players have this all wrong when they want less revenue sharing. It probably needs to be increased but also require some significant portion of it to be spent on player salaries.
No one in MLB or the MLBPA is proposing a real overhaul of the system. So when this does get settled we're going to get a band aid on a cut that needs stitches. If it were up to me I'd -
A - Increase revenue sharing and require a % of it go back to paying players
B - Impose a total de facto spending floor by requiring X% of league wide revenue to go back to players
C - Enroll minor league players in the union (which the MLBPA is loathe to do for obvious reasons) to broaden the interest pool the union must think about and put the owners in a position where they can't so easily give those players the last scrap of wood on the stick.
D - Base FA on how many years a player has been in professional baseball. The younger you are when you enter, the longer the team maintains control. So a guy drafted out of college who should in theory hit the bigs sooner reaches FA more quickly than the 16 year old kid signed out of the Dominican. Owners have to know they will get rewarded for all the investment they make on player development (which are significant and should be even more significant - give these players better general wages)
E - Implement a salary cap as this prevents the Dodgers from paying more out in payroll than the Marlins generate in total revenues and helps drive more balance (as does the de facto floor).
I do think baseball is slowly fading. It is less popular per Gallop as the second viewing option among team sports than soccer and basketball now among people less than 50 years old. This doesn't help it's cause.