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Consolidated Bracketology Thread 3/12/23 updates

DeacDaddy said:
One of the absolute most Wake Forest things about this whole experience is that there is literally still the tiniest chance that we get in. So we can’t just begin our mourning immediately after the BC game, but instead have to nurture this minute little sliver of fools’ hope all week. We are magnets for pain.

Instead of ending it in one fell swoop, our postseason dreams are apparently bleeding out slowly and it’s hilariously sad.
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True. I just saw predictions from a guy who was very accurate last year. His only miss was having Louisville in over Syracuse and his seeding was great as well. His last 4 in are SMU, Wake, Rutgers, and Indiana. No VT, Oklahoma, or Dayton. He is an outlier though.
 
I believe VT is ahead of us right now.

If they lose to Duke they will be 4-5 against the top 4 ACC seeds, 0-1 vs WF, 10-4 vs the bottom of the conference.
WF will be 2-4 vs the top 4, 1-0 vs VT, 10-4 vs the bottom.

Think 4-5 being better than 2-4 will matter more than the H2H
 
Unlike us Virginia Tech improved as the season went on where as we always seem to fade in March. Hope our guys enjoy watching a team that they throttled on their home court by 20 points, now play for the ACC championship!
 
"4:09 Cameron Hildreth missed Free Throw. 61 - 66 "

I thought that steal had locked the game up and a bid. It is gonna be close but we need everything to break our way from here on out. I think the margin for bid stealing is 0 for us to be in the field.
 
I don't know if we will make the NCAA tournament. And if we don't, then the season ends in disappointment. Any season that doesn't end with playing in the NCAA tourney is a disappointment. That should be the minimum goal for every major college team.

That being said, those who are projecting gloom and doom because we are losing so many players are forgetting that college basketball is fundamentally different now. The transfer portal has totally changed the sport. It was already heading in this direction pre-Covid but as with so many other things, the pandemic sped up the inevitable.

And if last year to this year is any indication, Forbes seems to know how to navigate in this new landscape. Like Duke and others changed the paradigm when it came to one and dones, Forbes can do so with the transfer portal. Schools don't have to rely on young players to develop and grow when you can go out and get players that have already developed and grown and plug them into your program. Teams don't have to rebuild from the ground up anymore, they can just reload.
 
KennyRogersRoast said:
Is that how the committee is going to look at it? I am sure you could come up with some numbers that make ND look worse than VT and us. ND did not have to go to Duke or UNC. Lost to us once and VT twice. Winning at Miami is all they have on us against the ACC teams that matter. ND has a losing record in road/neutral games. I remember when road/neutral used to be such a big thing.
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That is how I am parsing it. I doubt they will parse it exactly that way, but what the chair has said, “who did you play and who did you beat” is a test we fail relative to VT and ND. ND’s win over UK seems to be carrying many gallons of water for them.
 
Pretty ironic that Mit's "destiny" speech elaborated on choosing destiny rather than it passively occuring to you - yet here we are passively waiting our outcome, completely out of our hands at this point because we failed to execute.
 
thatguy2016 said:
That is how I am parsing it. I doubt they will parse it exactly that way, but what the chair has said, “who did you play and who did you beat” is a test we fail relative to VT and ND. ND’s win over UK seems to be carrying many gallons of water for them.
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He also had where did you play them in there too. ND’s best road/neutral win is Miami.

One knock against us was that our best win was against a team that was not going to make the tournament. Now that might not be the case. Certainly not with a VT win tonight.

But I agree with you that the UK win is carrying ND and we are not getting a bid.
 
I have been told we’re out.

Unofficially official.
 
I understand what you’re saying, Lilburn. The game has changed. But saying transfer portal THE answer to our March woes is claiming that we are going to do better in the portal than getting the POY, a 2nd team All-ACC, and two other starters. That’s a high bar.

We also can’t depend on the transfer portal to end a decades long culture of underperforming in February and March.
 
I may well have missed something, but has LaRavia actually said that he is turning pro?

I don't see him being at all ready for the NBA. But they don't seek my opinion.
 
KennyRogersRoast said:
Is that how the committee is going to look at it? I am sure you could come up with some numbers that make ND look worse than VT and us. ND did not have to go to Duke or UNC. Lost to us once and VT twice. Winning at Miami is all they have on us against the ACC teams that matter. ND has a losing record in road/neutral games. I remember when road/neutral used to be such a big thing.
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A week ago, we had VT in most everything. Each had 5 Q1/2 wins, each had 1 in Q1, wake had h2h on the road, 13v11 conference wins, better overall record, advantages in Net and most computer rankings.

Fast forward to today: VT has flipped conference wins (14v13), Q1 (3v1), Q1/2 (8v5), and has passed us in Net, Kenpom, KPI, Sagarin. We still narrowly have strength of record. And they look like they’re playing well being in the title game.

Notre Dame is more interesting. we have them in most metrics still. H2H. They have 2-seed (to the extent it matters) and 15 conference wins. And that Kentucky win, which is doing a lot of work for them. Think that win could be what separates them from us and gets them in.

And we have the albatross Non-con SOS that neither has.
 
PhDeac said:
I understand what you’re saying, Lilburn. The game has changed. But saying transfer portal THE answer to our March woes is claiming that we are going to do better in the portal than getting the POY, a 2nd team All-ACC, and two other starters. That’s a high bar.

We also can’t depend on the transfer portal to end a decades long culture of underperforming in February and March.
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Even if none of the super seniors come back I don’t think he needs to hit the portal as hard this year as he did last year. Laravia and Monsanto are a good core to build around, and I’m pretty high on the development of the freshmen. We’ll need a piece or two but I don’t think we’ll need a wholesale roster change.
 
PhDeac said:
I understand what you’re saying, Lilburn. The game has changed. But saying transfer portal THE answer to our March woes is claiming that we are going to do better in the portal than getting the POY, a 2nd team All-ACC, and two other starters. That’s a high bar.

We also can’t depend on the transfer portal to end a decades long culture of underperforming in February and March.
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I didn't say that. My point was that I don't think we are going back to square one next year like some others are fearing.
 
LilburnDeac said:
I didn't say that. My point was that I don't think we are going back to square one next year like some others are fearing.
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Agreed. We will be in the mix for attorney bid again next season. There will just be quite a few new faces.
 
CreamyGoodness said:
Well duh.we are obviously out.. that has nothing to do with your pretend friend who's associated with the committee
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Would you be that shocked if Biff was buddies with an adult man who voluntarily went by “Bubba”
 
CreamyGoodness said:
Lol the funny thing is that casual posters don't realize you're trolling
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I got a kick out of the idea of Biff’s friend going into the conference room refilling waters and bringing mozzarella sticks then texting Biff what they were talking about.

LilburnDeac said:
I didn't say that. My point was that I don't think we are going back to square one next year like some others are fearing.
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Losing key players and replacing them from the transfer portal is going back to square one. But now going back to square one is normal.

Either way the transfer portal alone isn’t all of a sudden going to make us better in March.
 
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