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Consolidated Bracketology Thread 3/12/23 updates

wsc8521s said:
And not just a P12 team, but a P12 team that made the Elite 8 last year.

If we do get left out of because of our OOC SOS, it's impossible to understate how much Oregon State's downfall is to blame
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I wouldn't go that far. OSU underachieving hurts us, no doubt. But KP's SOS is based on how strong a team would have to be to go .500 against the entire schedule, which is loosely similar to a ranking based on median OOC opponent. OSU only moves that up or down one slot by underachieving.

8 of our 11 OOC opponents are ranked below #200. If OSU is much better, that is still 7 of 11. We only had 2 in the top 100, so that could have been 3.

VT had 4 of 11 opponents ranked below #200. VT played 5 top 100 teams OOC and went 2-3.

ND had 5 of 11 opponents ranked below #200, plus Chaminade (not sure how KP accounts for D2 teams; does he ignore?). ND played 5 top 100 OOC teams and went 1-4.

KP has the following non-con SOS rankings:
ND #90
VT #182
WF #351 (of 358)

I suspect ND has some analytics behind their OOC scheduling. I would like for us to do so as well. I think we need to schedule 1-2 top 30 teams and 5 teams that we think will be between 60-100. It's ok if we lose some of those games; we just need to play them.
 
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Yeah the OOC schedule blew, but is it better to beat the teams or lose to better ones? We have to remember we went to OT vs Oregon St and Northwestern. Were down 13 at half to VMI and needed a buzzer beater to beat Charlotte. Improving the schedule likely would have resulted in a couple losses.
 
I would like to be pissed at the process, say we got screwed and argue that others less deserving are getting in over us. Unfortunately I can only blame our schedule (instead of SOS at 350 how about putting a schedule together thats around 290 or so) and three L's that are hard to explain. The biggest disappointment though is losing to the team that would have been everyone's first choice to play in a first round game. In addition to losing to BC no team played a worse game except maybe FSU.

I like Forbes but I'll never understand how he allowed his team to come out so unprepared in a season and program defining game against a far inferior opponent. Yes things are better but some things never change and thats disappointment and disinterest in March
 
Another close loss against a top 10 team is probably better than beating Charlotte in OT. But I think the real difference would be beating a bunch of 150-200 level teams rather than beating 300+ level teams.
 
daaberry said:
Yeah the OOC schedule blew, but is it better to beat the teams or lose to better ones? We have to remember we went to OT vs Oregon St and Northwestern. Were down 13 at half to VMI and needed a buzzer beater to beat Charlotte. Improving the schedule likely would have resulted in a couple losses.
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Our wins over OSU, WCU and Charlotte hurt us more than the loss to LSU

the joke of this is that non-conference SOS is already baked into the metrics that everyone is already looking at, so really it counts twice
 
Shake said:
I would like to be pissed at the process, say we got screwed and argue that others less deserving are getting in over us. Unfortunately I can only blame our schedule (instead of SOS at 350 how about putting a schedule together thats around 290 or so) and three L's that are hard to explain. The biggest disappointment though is losing to the team that would have been everyone's first choice to play in a first round game. In addition to losing to BC no team played a worse game except maybe FSU.

I like Forbes but I'll never understand how he allowed his team to come out so unprepared in a season and program defining game against a far inferior opponent. Yes things are better but some things never change and thats disappointment and disinterest in March
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Two words: meat sweats.

And frankly, I'm not going to dismiss the notion of eating a saturated fat laden meal made us slow the next day. Diet matters.
 
MichDeac25 said:
Two words: meat sweats.

And frankly, I'm not going to dismiss the notion of eating a saturated fat laden meal made us slow the next day. Diet matters.
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Did you not hear that MD used to go to Fogo de Chao nightly during the ACCT in Gboro?

In fairness, I bet the GM would cry when Lonnie Baxter walked through the front door. Again.
 
daaberry said:
Yeah the OOC schedule blew, but is it better to beat the teams or lose to better ones? We have to remember we went to OT vs Oregon St and Northwestern. Were down 13 at half to VMI and needed a buzzer beater to beat Charlotte. Improving the schedule likely would have resulted in a couple losses.
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Well, if an improved OOC schedule would've meant more losses, then WF doesn't deserve an at large. The reason why a challenging OOC schedule is valued because it provides tests so that a team does know where it stands among other teams seeking an NCAA at-large bid. Blowing out teams that are ranked in the bottom 100 fails to provide any measure of where WF actually stands among other teams. Forbes explained why WF played a soft schedule: WF had nine new players, and the program had no recent record of success. Playing a crappy OOC schedule was reasonable, but the risk was that if WF was better than expected, playing a soft schedule could cost WF an at-large bid. When it became apparent that WF was good enough for NCAAT consideration, the Deacs knew that it had to play well enough so that it wasn't a bubble team because a crap OOC schedule would used against the Deacs. Having a week off to beat the 13th best team in the ACC on a neutral court was apparently too big of a hill to climb.
 
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Yeah, very disappointing. I was so psyched to get to the Tourney but it's getting more and more difficult to stay positive as Sunday approaches.
My youngest son who went to Wake (WF04) became a Deacs fan when I took him to the last time we won the NIT. After that, Wake was where he was going.
But if that's our fate, I'm just going to pass and wait till next year. Too painful.
 
DeacsPop said:
Yeah, very disappointing. I was so psyched to get to the Tourney but it's getting more and more difficult to stay positive as Sunday approaches.
My youngest son who went to Wake (WF04) became a Deacs fan when I took him to the last time we won the NIT. After that, Wake was where he was going.
But if that's our fate, I'm just going to pass and wait till next year. Too painful.
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Your son was a HS Sr before you turned him into a Wake fan? Sounds like dereliction of parenting duty.
 
As much as I would like to see Wake make the Tourney, I thought they would need to win at least 1 if not 2 in the ACC Tourney to get in.
Wake has 2 pretty strong negatives going into this week.
First, it only has 2 victories over teams that are likely Tourney teams (UNC and ND) both at home.
Second, and more important, its SOS is crap.

Committee hates to see teams from power conferences with horrible OOC SOS. It will routinely leave out teams with 20+ wins if their OOC SOS is super weak. Happens every year.

It's not like the committee just looks at your Quad I and Quad II numbers. The bubble teams get reviewed pretty deeply. And for those teams they tend to find it more important who you beat than who you lost to and how you played away from home.
Mich will get a bid due to the 2 factors I mentioned above. They have 6 wins over likely NCAA Tourney teams (including 2 on the road) and the #28 OOC SOS.
IND is closer to Wake than Mich is, as they have a horrible OOC SOS as well, but they have 5 wins over likely Tourney teams including 3 on neutral courts.
ND is going to be higher than Wake as well as they have 3 wins over likely Tourney teams (one on road) and a really strong SOS - OOC SOS of #26. It would not shock me if ND ends up in Dayton. I can see them as a last 4 in type.
Xavier is also going to be higher than Wake despite how poorly they are playing down the stretch since the committee stopped using last 10 as a factor a decade ago. They have 5 wins over likely Tourney teams (one on the road) and a solid SOS OOC of #126. And beyond those 5 they also have a win over VT. If the committee still took last 10 into account Xavier would almost certainly be out, but based on their whole body of work I could see them slipping into Dayton.
 
Rutgers going down thanks in part to TWO technical fouls committed by their strength and conditioning coach

Rutgers non-con SOS is worse than WF's. Their NET is terrible at #77 before today's beatdown. They are 6-6 vs. Quad 1, 3-4 vs. Quad 2, including today.

They are sweating it out.
 
Shake said:
While he still has us as the last team in Lunardi just said on TV that he expects us to fall out after tonight's games...SOS
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Damn. I assume he means cupcake games for SMU and others.
 
Re: non-conf SOS, I believe the committee uses just the raw number of your opponents' records in their evaluation, hence a Pac-12 team going 3-28 would be a particular drag. If that's wrong though would be interested to see how that's listed out on their team sheets/nitty gritty.

But I guess the point remains ours is terribad regardless
 
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Bracket Matrix update has us out:

Dayton:
Rutgers
Xavier
Indiana
SMU

Out:
VCU
Wake
Oklahoma
Virginia Tech
Dayton
 
deacdixieboy said:
Some called me crazy but I suggested the same thing a few days ago. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he sits out.
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“Some” was me. And if I’m wrong I’m wrong. But I’m not familiar with players sitting out the NIT like football players sit out a bowl game. If perchance Alondes doesn’t play, that will be an epic quit job and I would have no respect for it.

Regardless what I do know is that Steve Forbes better spend the rest of his Wake Forest career coaching with a massive self-imposed chip on his shoulder.
 
Demonbeck said:
One could argue that turning your children into Wake fans is abuse.
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I didn't turn my daughter into a Wake fan. Just took the family to 1 game this year and BOOM, she was hooked. I told her Wednesday after we watched the loss together to buckle in because this is how shit goes for us Wake fans. Hope then crushed souls.
 
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