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WFU Hoops: '22-'23 Roster Construction - +Ituka/Carr/Appleby/Bradford

This is something college fans tell themselves about their team’s player to convince themselves that their guy should/will come back another year. If any NBA scouts agreed that there is a high likelihood Jake improves enough 12 months from now to be a lottery-type talent, he’d be getting projected a lot higher than 44.

NBA teams are already oftentimes drafting based on perceived potential, so if they thought he had that sort of lottery upside with one more year of improvement in college, they’d just draft him this year.

Exactly. I think it's important to actually look at the data, too.

Jake will either be a 23 or 24 year old rookie.

In the last decade, five players have been first rounders at or above 23 years old: Delon Wright (drafted #20 in 2015), CJ Wilcox (drafted #28 in 2014), Gorgui Deng (drafted #21 in 2013), Mason Plumlee (drafted #22 in 2013), and Miles Plumlee (drafted #26 in 2012).

Everybody else is a second rounder.

When I relax the parameters a bit and search for players who are a minimum of 22 years old when drafted, it's a bit more interesting:

Kispert was picked just outside of the lottery at #15 in 2021, but he's the highest pick since the Kings got Justin Jackson (#15) from the Blazers in 2017, the Hawks drafted Adreian Payne at 15 in 2014, and the Cavs got Tyler Zeller from the Mavs in 2012.

You gotta go back all the way to 2006 to find a lottery pick at or older than 22 and that was JJ Redick.

It doesn't happen often.
 
Except for Chris Duarte last year.

23 year olds typically have exhausted their eligibility. There aren’t many 23 year seniors anyway.
 
Except for Chris Duarte last year.

23 year olds typically have exhausted their eligibility. There aren’t many 23 year seniors anyway.

good call, that's true, but Duarte is a much different kind of player
 
Jake at 44 and Alondes at 48 in this draft projection

https://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft (the site is updated daily but the rankings I just posted were updated on 3/26 - prior to Zeke's announcement)

I agree with other posters that Jake could easily become a lottery pick if he stays another year. There is a pretty fantastic set pay scale for NBA rookies drafted in the first round (1st pick $8.4M down to 30th pick $1.6M. Second round picks are in the $900k range, with some earning above $1M. The guaranteed money is way way better for a first round pick. I think if I was him I'd put my name it and wait and see what happens with the Wake roster. Getting some more talent around me would be very important.

posted this information a couple of weeks ago, but the top of the second round typically does better than $900k

From the link

Picks 31-40:

31. Washington Wizards: Isaiah Todd, F, G League Ignite: Signed Four-year, $6.89MM contract. First three years guaranteed.
32. Oklahoma City Thunder: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, F, Villanova: Signed Four-year, $7.89MM contract. First two years guaranteed.
33. Los Angeles Clippers: Jason Preston, G, Ohio: Signed Three-year, $4.46MM contract. First two years guaranteed.
34. New York Knicks: Rokas Jokubaitis, G, Lithuania: Will play overseas
35. New Orleans Pelicans: Herb Jones, F, Alabama: Signed Three-year, $5.32MM contract. First two years guaranteed.
36. New York Knicks: Miles McBride, G, West Virginia: Signed Three-year, minimum-salary contract. First two years guaranteed.
37. Charlotte Hornets: JT Thor, F, Auburn: Signed Four-year, $6.64MM contract. First two years guaranteed.
38. Chicago Bulls: Ayo Dosunmu, G, Illinois: Signed Two-year, minimum-salary contract. Fully guaranteed.
39. Sacramento Kings: Neemias Queta, C, Utah State: Signed Two-way contract.
40. Utah Jazz: Jared Butler, G, Baylor: Signed Two-year, minimum-salary contract. Fully guaranteed.
 
Ayo is going to make some good money next year.

Herb Jones has been a beast. He’s a good example of what people are talking about. Four year guy at Alabama. All-SEC honors. He was picked high 2nd while his 18 year old teammate Josh Primo was a lottery pick.
 
ESPN+ mock has LaRavia's age as 20.3? Is he not as old as we thought?

That tankathon has it as 22.4. Hmmmm.
 
Yeah, I feel like I had seen that, too, so was surprised at the ESPN mock, but would not be surprised if they just got it totally wrong.
 
20.3 may be based on a default birthdate of 1/1/2002.
 
Hadn’t thought about our players being born after 2000 before now, so thanks for that.
 
I think part of the calculus in using DaMari for a limited part of this past season, even though it burned a year of eligibility, was that DaMari was not going to still be playing college basketball in his 7th year after graduating HS. I would put the over/under in Damari seasons as a WF player at 2.5, with one year already gone.
 
For those who have felt like the last few weeks since the BC loss have been excruciating, prepare yourselves for at least 3-4 more weeks that seem to move incredibly slow. The deadline for underclassmen to declare for this year's NBA draft is April 24.
 
For those who have felt like the last few weeks since the BC loss have been excruciating, prepare yourselves for at least 3-4 more weeks that seem to move incredibly slow. The deadline for underclassmen to declare for this year's NBA draft is April 24.

Just a reminder that they don’t have to withdraw until mid June
 
Just a reminder? More like dream crushing for Brendan. He'll have a long wait.
 
The sooner players declare for the draft, the sooner they get evaluated and are told how likely they are to get invited to the pre-draft evaluation camp and whether or not they are on a "likely to be drafted" list. With Zay declaring now, he should get feedback in a week or two.
 
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