Pilchard
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The Deacs march back to Peter Luger's Steakhouse continues on Saturday afternoon as WF hosts VCU.
That picture was taken after a shooting at PL's. Not kidding. PL's must be really good if people are waiting for a table the same day as a shooting on the premises.
Here is the skinny on Rams:
2021-22 Season: VCU -- 22-9 #64 in KP; #56 in Torvik. Props to whomever was responsible for setting up VCU's schedule. In their 11 OOC games, they played only 1 team rated 200 or below, and they were prescient at scheduling teams from lesser conferences that would have a good year. In their OOC schedule, VCU played NCAAT teams: St. Peter's (VCU won by 3), Chattanooga (lost by 2), Jacksonville State (won by 14), UCONN (lost by 7 in OT), Baylor (lost by 8). VCU also played NIT invite Vandy (won by 11). Even the "bad" teams VCU played weren't bad, Wagner went 21-6, Campbell went 16-13. VCU and WF have one common opponent: Syracuse. VCU beat the Orange (when they were fully healthy) 67-55 on a neutral court. WF beat Cuse in OT at home and got trucked by 22 in the Dome. VCU has had a solid season going 7-4 in a rigorous OOC schedule, and then 14-5 against A-10 teams. Like the Deacs, VCU was upset in its opening conference tourney game by local rival Richmond; the Spiders went on to win the A-10 tournament. The Rams dominated Princeton 90-79 in the NIT first round; VCU never trailed in the 2nd half.
Analytics: VCU is a all about defense. KP rates the Rams as the #6 defensive team in the country (#1 in the A-10). The five teams rated above VCU in defensive efficiency are in the NCAAT except for OK State, who was ineligible this season. VCU is the rare team that forces TOS (#4 in TO rate; VCU forces a TO on 25% of its opponents' defensive possessions), yet also plays elite FG% defense (#6 in the effective FG% defense). VCU is #4 in the nation at defending the 3 and #30 at defending the two point shot. VCU has two defensive weaknesses: because they are so aggressive, the Rams foul a lot (#319 in defensive FTA/FGA) and the Rams do not protect the glass (#330 in opponents offensive rebounding %). The VCU offense is another story. It's weak. #218 in offensive efficiency. Ironically, on offense, VCU struggles with... turnovers. Their offense cannot protect the ball (TOs on 22% of VCU's offensive possessions -- #341). When the Rams don't turn the ball over, they take the ball to the rack, as 58% of their offense comes from 2 point shots (#22 in the country). VCU plays at a moderate to fast tempo averaging 68 possessions a game.
Roster:
Rams starters:
PG 6-1 So. Ace Baldwin: Starter from Day 1 at VCU; 4 star recruit from Baltimore; leads team in assists and steals; shoots 43% from 3;
G 6-4 Fr. Jayden Nunn: Started first game as a true frosh; from Mich. committed to Iowa State and then flipped when the Cyclones fired their coach; erratic offensive player; 43% from 2; 33% from 3; active defensively
G 6-4 Sr. KeShawn Curry: Started for the first time as a senior; 56% from 2, but only 28% from 3; leading scorer against Princeton
G/F 6-6 Sr. Vince Williams: 2 year starter; lefty; leading scorer and rebounder; 2nd in assists and blocked shots; lots of TOs; 39% from 3;
C 6-9 Jr. Hason Ward: From Barbados; 1st blocks; 2nd in rebounding; not a big threat to score; 0 for 6 from 3
Bench:
F/C 6-9 Fr. Jalen DeLoach: limited offensively; has not attempted a 3; 29% from the line (not a misprint); most of his baskets are dunks; brother plays football at FSU
F/C 6-8 Sr. Levi Stockard: KS State transfer; doesn't shoot the 3; fouls a lot
G 6-3 Jr. Marcus Tsohonis: Washington transfer; 37% from 3; plays limited minutes
The Projection: KP projects a 73-68 WF win; Torvik projects a 73-67 WF win. Early line is WF -5.5.
Got to be a good team to beat VCU. They are talented, understand their system and bring it on defense for 40 minutes. Stating the obvious, the key to this game is TOs -- both ways. While VCU's defense is renown for causing TOs, the Rams offense gives up a ton of TOs as well. Expect a helter skelter game with lots of runs. WF will need to convert VCU TOs into easy baskets; WF will need to make FTs as VCU fouls often. VCU will force a lot of WF TOs. If WF can keep the TOs under 20 and if WF can get back on defense when VCU causes TOs, the Deacs can limit the points off TOs disparity. Also, VCU is an awful team at keeping opponents off the offensive glass, and WF will have a big size edge. Seems like this is a game where WF shots early in the possession would be a good thing as that will limit VCU TO opportunities, VCU plays stout half court D and WF should get lots of offensive rebounds. The team that VCU resembles most from WF's schedule is LSU; the ACC team that VCU resembles the most is Miami (Miami led the ACC in TOs forced). WF struggled in all 3 games against those opponents. To win a championship, even the NIT, which so many here ridiculously scoffed at, you have to beat teams that take you out of your comfort zone. VCU certainly takes WF out of its comfort zone, but with a couple of days to prepare, hope/think the staff will have the Deacs ready for VCU's ball pressure. Can't recommend WF ATS in this one. Just win.
As an aside, VCU is exactly the type of team that WF should schedule next year. They are a solid team, and will be a top 100 team again next year. Facing a challenging opponent like VCU, helps the scheduling metrics, but it also gets WF ready for the ball pressure that WF will face in conference and post-season play.
That picture was taken after a shooting at PL's. Not kidding. PL's must be really good if people are waiting for a table the same day as a shooting on the premises.
Here is the skinny on Rams:
2021-22 Season: VCU -- 22-9 #64 in KP; #56 in Torvik. Props to whomever was responsible for setting up VCU's schedule. In their 11 OOC games, they played only 1 team rated 200 or below, and they were prescient at scheduling teams from lesser conferences that would have a good year. In their OOC schedule, VCU played NCAAT teams: St. Peter's (VCU won by 3), Chattanooga (lost by 2), Jacksonville State (won by 14), UCONN (lost by 7 in OT), Baylor (lost by 8). VCU also played NIT invite Vandy (won by 11). Even the "bad" teams VCU played weren't bad, Wagner went 21-6, Campbell went 16-13. VCU and WF have one common opponent: Syracuse. VCU beat the Orange (when they were fully healthy) 67-55 on a neutral court. WF beat Cuse in OT at home and got trucked by 22 in the Dome. VCU has had a solid season going 7-4 in a rigorous OOC schedule, and then 14-5 against A-10 teams. Like the Deacs, VCU was upset in its opening conference tourney game by local rival Richmond; the Spiders went on to win the A-10 tournament. The Rams dominated Princeton 90-79 in the NIT first round; VCU never trailed in the 2nd half.
Analytics: VCU is a all about defense. KP rates the Rams as the #6 defensive team in the country (#1 in the A-10). The five teams rated above VCU in defensive efficiency are in the NCAAT except for OK State, who was ineligible this season. VCU is the rare team that forces TOS (#4 in TO rate; VCU forces a TO on 25% of its opponents' defensive possessions), yet also plays elite FG% defense (#6 in the effective FG% defense). VCU is #4 in the nation at defending the 3 and #30 at defending the two point shot. VCU has two defensive weaknesses: because they are so aggressive, the Rams foul a lot (#319 in defensive FTA/FGA) and the Rams do not protect the glass (#330 in opponents offensive rebounding %). The VCU offense is another story. It's weak. #218 in offensive efficiency. Ironically, on offense, VCU struggles with... turnovers. Their offense cannot protect the ball (TOs on 22% of VCU's offensive possessions -- #341). When the Rams don't turn the ball over, they take the ball to the rack, as 58% of their offense comes from 2 point shots (#22 in the country). VCU plays at a moderate to fast tempo averaging 68 possessions a game.
Roster:
Rams starters:
PG 6-1 So. Ace Baldwin: Starter from Day 1 at VCU; 4 star recruit from Baltimore; leads team in assists and steals; shoots 43% from 3;
G 6-4 Fr. Jayden Nunn: Started first game as a true frosh; from Mich. committed to Iowa State and then flipped when the Cyclones fired their coach; erratic offensive player; 43% from 2; 33% from 3; active defensively
G 6-4 Sr. KeShawn Curry: Started for the first time as a senior; 56% from 2, but only 28% from 3; leading scorer against Princeton
G/F 6-6 Sr. Vince Williams: 2 year starter; lefty; leading scorer and rebounder; 2nd in assists and blocked shots; lots of TOs; 39% from 3;
C 6-9 Jr. Hason Ward: From Barbados; 1st blocks; 2nd in rebounding; not a big threat to score; 0 for 6 from 3
Bench:
F/C 6-9 Fr. Jalen DeLoach: limited offensively; has not attempted a 3; 29% from the line (not a misprint); most of his baskets are dunks; brother plays football at FSU
F/C 6-8 Sr. Levi Stockard: KS State transfer; doesn't shoot the 3; fouls a lot
G 6-3 Jr. Marcus Tsohonis: Washington transfer; 37% from 3; plays limited minutes
The Projection: KP projects a 73-68 WF win; Torvik projects a 73-67 WF win. Early line is WF -5.5.
Got to be a good team to beat VCU. They are talented, understand their system and bring it on defense for 40 minutes. Stating the obvious, the key to this game is TOs -- both ways. While VCU's defense is renown for causing TOs, the Rams offense gives up a ton of TOs as well. Expect a helter skelter game with lots of runs. WF will need to convert VCU TOs into easy baskets; WF will need to make FTs as VCU fouls often. VCU will force a lot of WF TOs. If WF can keep the TOs under 20 and if WF can get back on defense when VCU causes TOs, the Deacs can limit the points off TOs disparity. Also, VCU is an awful team at keeping opponents off the offensive glass, and WF will have a big size edge. Seems like this is a game where WF shots early in the possession would be a good thing as that will limit VCU TO opportunities, VCU plays stout half court D and WF should get lots of offensive rebounds. The team that VCU resembles most from WF's schedule is LSU; the ACC team that VCU resembles the most is Miami (Miami led the ACC in TOs forced). WF struggled in all 3 games against those opponents. To win a championship, even the NIT, which so many here ridiculously scoffed at, you have to beat teams that take you out of your comfort zone. VCU certainly takes WF out of its comfort zone, but with a couple of days to prepare, hope/think the staff will have the Deacs ready for VCU's ball pressure. Can't recommend WF ATS in this one. Just win.
As an aside, VCU is exactly the type of team that WF should schedule next year. They are a solid team, and will be a top 100 team again next year. Facing a challenging opponent like VCU, helps the scheduling metrics, but it also gets WF ready for the ball pressure that WF will face in conference and post-season play.
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