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OMG HURRRICANE!!!!!!!111!!!!1

2pm update of the spaghetti plots. Major updates occur at 11am, 5pm, 11pm, and 5 am with intermediary updates at 2pm, 8pm, 2am, and 8 am.

Consensus seems to be zeroing in on the NC/SC border. A lot can change, though.

clark9latest.png
 
Also, the National Hurricane Center is keeping their track a bit farther west. They don't have her taking such a sharp curve out to see once it hits land. The NHC is adding the human element of reason to the computers, so they may have a grasp on something the computers do not. That would be an epic mess for the Carolinas on a Hugo scale if true.

205313W5_NL_sm.gif
 
Ew, no. I don't care to be in the path of a Cat 3/4 Hurricane right on the coast in a city that would flood very quickly.
 
Weird. I just saw that the NHC hasn't used balloons or dropsondes in any of the updates yet, but will this evening. That will give tons more data to ingest.

Remember with storms like this, the worst wind/surge is in the upper right quadrant from the eye. So wherever is northeast of the landfall of the eye will really get hit, assuming it makes landfall.
 
The normally super reliable Weather Underground current forecast:





at201109_model.gif
 
This really sucks for my cousins wedding near Pawleys on Saturday. I was looking forward to beach time. F me
 
It seems like the weather channel has different predictions from everyone else, saying its category 3 by landfall when others say only category 2. I know their reporting is pretty sensational and exaggerated, but would they really upgrade the category just for a story?
 
Coming directly from my cousin at the NWS:
NOAA/NWS gives the storm a 25% chance it dissipates by Friday, 38% it is a tropical storm and 37% it remains a hurricane (most likely a strong cat-1 or weak cat-2). No one really has a good indication yet what this thing is going to do in 5 days. It really depends on what happens after it moves past the DR. There is a growing number of forecasters that now believe the storm will either hit the eastern tip of North Carolina or possibly come very close then go back to sea. Later this afternoon/tonight should definitely give more clarity.
 
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