Wes Miller named Head Coach at Cincinnati

Replace UNCG with Wake :drool:

So DR has left Pat Kelsey at the altar?

Wow he shows an insane amount of maturity for a 28 year old.
Whoops, 29

Restore the roar. Hire Wes Miller.

leftcoastdeac said:

If that's true, we need to make a move on Wes - If he's good enough to be seriously considered by UCLA, he's definitely good enough to be considered by Wake IMO.

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yea but are these just rumors as I assume they are? I highly doubt UCLA with its tradition from the Wooden days is going to take a chance on a first year interim 28 year old AD. Plus their program has a winning record this year and has talent returning. Our present condition is much more desperate and desperate times call for desperate measures.

I doubt Holland gets fired after this year with a Top 10 recruiting class coming in (that could jump to Top 3 is Shabazz Muhammed joins Kyle Anderson).

ironwill24 said:

yea but are these just rumors as I assume they are? I highly doubt UCLA with its tradition from the Wooden days is going to take a chance on a first year interim 28 year old AD. Plus their program has a winning record this year and has talent returning. Our present condition is much more desperate and desperate times call for desperate measures.

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Exactly. We can't do another retread

RJKarl said:

I doubt Holland gets fired after this year with a Top 10 recruiting class coming in (that could jump to Top 3 is Shabazz Muhammed joins Kyle Anderson).

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I bet he does. Last three seasons: 14-18 (8-10), 23-11 (13-5), 15-11 (8-6).

This is in an historically weak Pac-12 at the most prestigious program in the country. He's outta there.

RJKarl said:

I doubt Holland gets fired after this year with a Top 10 recruiting class coming in (that could jump to Top 3 is Shabazz Muhammed joins Kyle Anderson).

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Terry Holland?

Would love to see it, but hiring young inexperienced coaches is not Wellman's style. After getting burned by the Caldwell and Charlene Curtis hires (both of whom were young and inexperienced when RW hired them), every candidate offered for WF's most major programs have been older (over 40) with at least a decade of head coaching experience:

- Football

Rich Brooks 59 when WF offered
John Mackovic 57 when WF offered
Jim Grobe 48 when hired

- Men's Basketball

Skip Prosser 50 when hired
Bz 57 when hired

- Women's hoop

Mike Petersen 48 when hired

Baseball

Rich Rembielak 42 when hired
Tom Walter 40 when hired

Wellman's "lesson learned" after the Caldwell and Curtis hires crashed and burned is to go for "older and experienced" candidates. I hate it as it limits options. Would love to see WF take risk a hire Miller, but would be shocked if it happened. Unfortunately, it's more likely that WF would hire Ben Howland (Holland according to rj) after he gets fired than Wes Miller.

I'm a big Wes Miller fan, but he's getting too much credit right now.

His first game was against ECU, on 12/16.
12/16, UNCG KenPom: 294
2/15, UNCG KenPom: 276
2/16, UNCG KenPom: 262

Half of their climb up the rankings under Miller is from yesterday's big win. Yes, 30 spots is a nice improvement. I think its pretty impressive for a 28 year old.

But the record turnaround is quite misleading. UNCG played the 7th toughest non-conference schedule in the nation. Note that Miller lost all 5 of his non-conference games, by an average of more than 15 PPG. UNCG's record can be broken down as follows:

Non-con (pre-Miller): 1-5 (I'm only counting D1 competition)
Non-con (Miller): 0-5

In short, little, if any, difference.

Conference (pre-Miller): 0-3
Conference (Miller): 10-2

So, record wise, it looks like Miller has made a tremendous turnaround against Southern Conference teams. I know I'm going to get hammered for this, but when evaluating a coach, there's more to the story than just wins and losses.

Under Miller, UNCG has played 7 conference games decided by 7 points or fewer. UNCG is 7-0 in those 7 games. I know its tempting to credit that to Miller's late game coaching, but I don't buy it. Given their conference play point differential, UNCG's record would be expected to be 7-8, instead of 10-5. That's a pretty huge difference, and I don't think Miller would be getting much pub if he was 7-5 in conference play.

There's also a lot of talk about how he beat two teams that the old coach lost to. Well, shifting from playing on the road to playing at home is generally worth 7-8 points by itself.

Before Miller became head coach, UNCG lost @App by 14. At home, coached by Miller, they won in OT by 4 (18 pt improvement).
Before Miller became head coach, UNCG lost @WCU by 4. At home, coached by Miller, they won in OT by 3 (7 pt improvement).

That's pretty standard improvement, especially if you take out the OT periods.

Also, one last point I want to make...while the Southern Conference is a weak mid-major conference to begin with, the North Division is significantly weaker. I have a hard time believing that UNCG is facing a talent deficit in their division.

tl;dr Given that he has a head coaching gig at 28, I love Miller's chances of becoming a successful coach, but UNCG has not made all that much of a turnaround in terms of their level of play.

Pilchard said:

Would love to see it, but hiring young inexperienced coaches is not Wellman's style. After getting burned by the Caldwell and Charlene Curtis hires (both of whom were young and inexperienced when RW hired them), every candidate offered for WF's most major programs have been older (over 40) with at least a decade of head coaching experience:

- Football

Rich Brooks 59 when WF offered
John Mackovic 57 when WF offered
Jim Grobe 48 when hired

- Men's Basketball

Skip Prosser 50 when hired
Bz 57 when hired

- Women's hoop

Mike Petersen 48 when hired

Baseball

Rich Rembielak 42 when hired
Tom Walter 40 when hired

Wellman's "lesson learned" after the Caldwell and Curtis hires crashed and burned is to go for "older and experienced" candidates. I hate it as it limits options. Would love to see WF take risk a hire Miller, but would be shocked if it happened.

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All the more reason to do it.

stonzm9 said:

I'm a big Wes Miller fan, but he's getting too much credit right now.

His first game was against ECU, on 12/16.
12/16, UNCG KenPom: 294
2/15, UNCG KenPom: 276
2/16, UNCG KenPom: 262

Half of their climb up the rankings under Miller is from yesterday's big win. Yes, 30 spots is a nice improvement. I think its pretty impressive for a 28 year old.

But the record turnaround is quite misleading. UNCG played the 7th toughest non-conference schedule in the nation. Note that Miller lost all 5 of his non-conference games, by an average of more than 15 PPG. UNCG's record can be broken down as follows:

Non-con (pre-Miller): 1-5 (I'm only counting D1 competition)
Non-con (Miller): 0-5

In short, little, if any, difference.

Conference (pre-Miller): 0-3
Conference (Miller): 10-2

So, record wise, it looks like Miller has made a tremendous turnaround against Southern Conference teams. I know I'm going to get hammered for this, but when evaluating a coach, there's more to the story than just wins and losses.

Under Miller, UNCG has played 7 conference games decided by 7 points or fewer. UNCG is 7-0 in those 7 games. I know its tempting to credit that to Miller's late game coaching, but I don't buy it. Given their conference play point differential, UNCG's record would be expected to be 7-8, instead of 10-5. That's a pretty huge difference, and I don't think Miller would be getting much pub if he was 7-5 in conference play.

There's also a lot of talk about how he beat two teams that the old coach lost to. Well, shifting from playing on the road to playing at home is generally worth 7-8 points by itself.

Before Miller became head coach, UNCG lost @App by 14. At home, coached by Miller, they won in OT by 4 (18 pt improvement).
Before Miller became head coach, UNCG lost @WCU by 4. At home, coached by Miller, they won in OT by 3 (7 pt improvement).

That's pretty standard improvement, especially if you take out the OT periods.

Also, one last point I want to make...while the Southern Conference is a weak mid-major conference to begin with, the North Division is significantly weaker. I have a hard time believing that UNCG is facing a talent deficit in their division.

tl;dr Given that he has a head coaching gig at 28, I love Miller's chances of becoming a successful coach, but UNCG has not made all that much of a turnaround.

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Funny, as Buzz has proven himself so well, and the improvement in our program after two years is really impressive.

Pilchard said:

Would love to see it, but hiring young inexperienced coaches is not Wellman's style. After getting burned by the Caldwell and Charlene Curtis hires (both of whom were young and inexperienced when RW hired them), every candidate offered for WF's most major programs have been older (over 40) with at least a decade of head coaching experience:

- Football

Rich Brooks 59 when WF offered
John Mackovic 57 when WF offered
Jim Grobe 48 when hired

- Men's Basketball

Skip Prosser 50 when hired
Bz 57 when hired

- Women's hoop

Mike Petersen 48 when hired

Baseball

Rich Rembielak 42 when hired
Tom Walter 40 when hired

Wellman's "lesson learned" after the Caldwell and Curtis hires crashed and burned is to go for "older and experienced" candidates. I hate it as it limits options. Would love to see WF take risk a hire Miller, but would be shocked if it happened. Unfortunately, it's more likely that WF would hire Ben Howland (Holland according to rj) after he gets fired than Wes Miller.

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This post is dead on. I think most of us would prefer a younger head coach who could be Wake's Coach K, but I really don't think Wellman has the stomach for that kind of risk. He prefers the "safer" hire of a head coach with significant head coaching experience. Obviously, you can call him crazy for thinking [Redacted] was a safe hire, but I can see where, from Wellman's perspective, [Redacted] + Battle and the existing staff was a safer hire than someone like Groce.

In basketball, Wellman hired Skip and [Redacted] (Dino obviously inherited Skip's job only in the most unusual possible circumstances), both guys with years of head coaching experience. Even the guys he reportedly sniffed around on before hiring those two -- Bob Bender, John Beilein, Steve Alford, Tubby Smith -- were experienced head coaches at the high/higher mid-major level.

This is to say, to date, Wellman has shown no interest in younger head coaches or promising assistants. I'm sure he had a nice laugh when that John Pelphrey petition landed on his car windshield 11 years ago. I don't necessarily agree with Wellman's preference, particularly in basketball, but that's the way he rolls. Thus, unless he has had a change of heart, even if [Redacted] is out after this year or next, I seriously doubt Wellman goes with someone with the limited track record of Wes Miller.

Hard to believe that someone who hired a head coach with a career record 6 games over .500 can be described as risk-averse.

I understand the desire to hire someone with experience. I just think that desire may have caused him to go to the bottom of the barrel with [Redacted]. I'm pretty sure he thought he was getting a home run by hiring a major conference head coach.

Not to derail the thread, but my personal theory is that Wellman looked around and, once Brad Stevens was off the table, discovered that he didn't have any slam dunk options available. For example, Brad Brownell was my guy, but even I acknowledge he would not have been a sexy hire and there would have been plenty of Wake fans who would have been disappointed.

Given that he couldn't make any grand slam hires, Wellman looked to an older, experienced head coach who he knew from his Northwestern days. He wasn't expensive, would not embarrass the university, and was a good face to present to Hatch and the trustees. Best of all, he would keep Battle and Rusty, who would otherwise have been casualties, when it seems pretty clear Wellman's main problem was with Dino.

Thus, to Wellman, [Redacted] was a safer hire, record at Colorado be damned. Obviously he could not have been more wrong, as it's not like Groce or Brownell or anyone else could have done worse than [Redacted] has done so far, but I can see what Wellman was thinking.

Oh I realize that to Wellman, Bz was a safe hire. In reality, hiring a barely over .500 coach to get you to the Final Four is a huge risk.

Good coaching stats Pilchard. At this point, all we can hope is that Wellman debunked his personal belief of 'hiring experienced coaches = profit'.

If Wellman thought or thinks Bz can ever reach a Final Four then I'd be amazed. I just think he's back to not giving a shit if we win or lose a la the pre-Grobe and Skip years. Hey, we suck ass but at least we get to collect all that ACC money.

I think Wellman looked at Dino's teams and saw a bunch of talent playing without much direction from the head coach. I suspect he thought he could swap out Dino for [Redacted], who to Wellman would be a superior Xs and Os coach, and keep everything else the same. You must admit, we have had the horses over the last 10 years to reach a Final Four, we just haven't done it, in part due to questionable Xs and Os coaching.

The problem was, as other people have written, once Teague and Johnson went pro and Ish and Co. graduated, the program was low on talent for the first time in a while. Then subtract Woods, add Chennault's injury, Tabb's ineptitude, Ari Stewart's madness, and whatever personal problems JT Terrell had, and we were even more screwed. Our best player was Gary fucking Clark.

So, suddenly, [Redacted] wasn't simply expected to slide over into the driver's seat of a well-oiled machine that was already humming, but rather [Redacted] need to build a program from the ground up. And, as we've all seen, [Redacted] does not have have personality for that kind of gig.

Perhaps Wellman should have anticipated that our talent level was going to be way down, in which case [Redacted] was not the best hire. In Wellman's defense, some of our personnel issues were unexpected - Woods certainly; Stewart perhaps; the freshmen maybe. But, ultimately, Wellman is accountable for hiring [Redacted] and it's on him. But, I do think he had good intentions and that he genuinely thought [Redacted] would solve our problems.