DeacLaw05
Well-known member
To solidify our place in the pecking order vs. the Coastal, we need to beat VT and then have VT beat Virginia for the hundredth consecutive year.
The SEC may not have enough teams to fill their bowl slots.
Looked at the schedules of the three loss teams, as they would be the ones in a position to potentially pass WF in the bowl selection process. To be in the best position for the Orange Bowl, we need to beat VT this Saturday and then become big Hokie fans thereafter. (I am assuming a WF loss to Clemson in these scenarios.)
Virginia (6-3, 4-2) is the biggest threat going forward in the Coastal. They have three games remaining, and all three are at home. Georgia Tech and Liberty should be easy wins, and they finish with VT on Thanksgiving weekend. They are the odds on favorite to win the Coastal, though, with another likely loss to Clemson to follow. I wouldn’t think a 9-4 Virginia team passes us if we are 10-2, though, and it would be iffy if we were 9-3.
Pitt (6-3, 3-2) is home for U*NC, @VT, and home for BC. If they win out, they would still have the probable loss to Clemson in Charlotte for their fourth loss and would be in essentially the same spot as the UVA scenario above. A loss in Blacksburg would be helpful.
Virginia Tech (5-3, 2-2) was really hurt by that close loss to Notre Dame yesterday. 6-2 with a win in South Bend would have been a decent looking resume. They finish home to WF, @GT, home to Pitt, and @UVA. Tough finishing schedule that I think they are unlikely to get through unscathed. Also potentially still alive for an additional loss to Clemson in Charlotte.
Louisville (5-3, 3-2) is the wild card, as they are done with Clemson and don’t have the potential of another loss to them. They have two tough road games sandwiched around two probable wins. Finish @Miami, @State, home for Syracuse, and @Kentucky. We should all be pulling for the Canes this weekend to go ahead and give them that fourth loss.
The last potential monkey wrench for an Orange Bowl trip under these scenarios would be a Clemson loss in Charlotte, knocking them out of the playoff and into the Orange. That would really suck.
By far the biggest factor for the time being is getting a win in Blacksburg. Huge game.
Is this a case of the SEC cannibalizing its own?
Palm (CBS), BR, and The Action Network have us in the OB vs. Florida. The Action Network has us as 10 point underdogs.
247 has us playing Liberty in the Belk Bowl in what would be the most disappointing Wake bowl appearance of all time. They have UVa vs. UF in the OB.
SB Nation has us playing the Cheese heads in the OB. That would be a great game.
I have hotels booked for Orange and Belk Bowls. If we end up in Orlando, we have family there and friends in New Smyrna Beach. Nashville or El Paso would be a bit harder, but I have over 650,000 Marriott points to work with.
playing an overrated 10-2 gators team would be best case scenario by a good amount.
obviously tons of factors, but wonder where we would be ranked if we ended up with 2 losses
20th or so? Around 18-19 with a win this week, drop to 24-25 after losing to Clemson then move up a couple spots a week for wins against duke and cuse. That seems right.
I’m curious to see if the CFP aligns closely with the polls or if Wake gets more credit in a committee view for only having one loss (and it’s less of a horse race situation)