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Thoughts on the Kentucky Derby -California Chrome's future

Right now it almost looks like a walkover for California Chrome. I'll see more after the Arkansas Derby.

The only hesitation is Vicar's In Trouble. He's run several really good races. However, he's been very green and has trouble changing leads. To make him more questionable is dosage appears to be 5.00. In the past hundred years, I think only one or two horses have won the KY Derby with a dosage of over 4.00.

Right now, I'd be praying for 2-1 on Chrome. In a twenty horse field, we might get lucky. His place price might be good. I'm kinda looking at doing the unthinkable and singling a horse in the KY Derby for Picker 3s and Pick 4s. Over the past decade, you've had to spread 4-6 deep in the Derby for Pick3s and Pick 4s.

Another possible bet may be to do a key horse trifecta box with 5-7 other horses under California Chrome. For a $1 box - 5=$20 6=$30 7 =$42
 
RJKarl said:
Another possible bet may be to do a key horse trifecta box with 5-7 other horses under California Chrome. For a $1 box - 5=$20 6=$30 7 =$42
Click to expand...

I like this idea, but it's gonna be hard to determine those 5-7 other horses. The field seems so wide open after CC. Every time a horse starts gaining momentum, it seems he is soundly beaten.
 
Another option is the Pick 4 that includes the Derby. That day's racing card is one of the best in the country for the whole year. If you single California Chrome, you could for a longshot Pick 4 - 4x4x1x4 would cost $64 or 3x4x5x1 would cost $60. Due to the number of horses in the Derby it should pay more that it would normally and will be a huge pool.
 
Man I just took a beating at the Arkansas Derby. Felt pretty good with an exacta box involving Ride on Curlin/Bayern/Tapiture. Who the hell does Danza think he is?
 
As of now here are my top contenders:

1. California Chrome - looks 2-1 to me. Maybe some suckers will bet Constitution or the East Coast horses
2. Constitution- was all out to beat Wildcat Red in an up the rail trip.
3. Intense Holiday - didn't seem to like the slop in LA Derby -see who Stevens chooses to ride.
4. Samraat - bad race last time has right to come back
5. Vicar's in Trouble - won easily. looked great two back- threw in a stinker in between- has dosage of 5.0 - that's way too high. distance???
 
It just got easier for California Chrome. Constitution got hurt in training. He's off the Triple Crown trail.
 
Two weeks out from the Derby.

Something to think about is when one horse is likely to win easily, it's like you are handicapping the rest of the field to see who will the other race. This is often more difficult than picking an exacta when multiple horses have a chance to win the race.

If California Chrome wins as easily as it looks like he might, there could be very short fields in the Preakness and Belmont.

The race for second looks like it's between:

Intense Holiday
Samraat
Wicked Strong
Hoppertunity

I'm really looking at the Pick 4. One thing to think about is you can bet $0.50 Pick 4s.
 
I am so sick. I didn't realize there there was a Future Book 4. I would have bet $200 on California Chrome at the 9-1 odds I would have gotten.

Hopefully, I'll do well at Churchill as I sent to a poster for Keeneland yesterday.
 
So if California Chrome wins Kentucky Derby by a lot, you think he has an easier chance of winning Triple Crown? What are his triple crown odds?
 
RJKarl said:
Two weeks out from the Derby.

Something to think about is when one horse is likely to win easily, it's like you are handicapping the rest of the field to see who will the other race. This is often more difficult than picking an exacta when multiple horses have a chance to win the race.

If California Chrome wins as easily as it looks like he might, there could be very short fields in the Preakness and Belmont.

The race for second looks like it's between:

Intense Holiday
Samraat
Wicked Strong
Hoppertunity

I'm really looking at the Pick 4. One thing to think about is you can bet $0.50 Pick 4s.
Click to expand...

Kind if like Ride on Curlin to hit the board. Not sure what to make of Vicars, or Social Inclusion if he makes the cut...
 
bernbp5 said:
So if California Chrome wins Kentucky Derby by a lot, you think he has an easier chance of winning Triple Crown? What are his triple crown odds?
Click to expand...

Triple Crown odds right now are 10-1
 
tau06 said:
Triple Crown odds right now are 10-1
Click to expand...

Those aren't bad odds. The key is getting by the Derby. If he wins by 3-6 lengths, the fields in the other races should shrink. He's destroyed every horse on the west coast.
 
DiegoTiger said:
Kind if like Ride on Curlin to hit the board. Not sure what to make of Vicars, or Social Inclusion if he makes the cut...
Click to expand...

Vicar may not get the distance with his 5.0 dosage. Ride on Curlin definitely has a chance to hit the board. His dad was unlucky not to win at Churchill.
 
RJ, can you explain what you mean by dosage? Im a horse racing noob but have sort of gotten hooked recently.
 
tau06 said:
RJ, can you explain what you mean by dosage? Im a horse racing noob but have sort of gotten hooked recently.
Click to expand...

Dosage is about a horse's breeding to last at least 1 1/4 miles. That's considered the "classic distance" in the US. Over the past hundred years of the The Derby, I think only one horse with a Dosage of over 4.0 has won.

I don't know as much about breeding as some do. Here's one oddity. There are eight KY Derby winners in Smarty Jones' lineage. What's interesting is that it seems to skip a generation.

Horses for courses is really important. Some horse love certain tracks. This is especially true about Del Mar and a bit about Churchill Downs.
 
Every time I see this thread title I think of something like this:

Picture-714.png
 
So, RJ, which horses are you eliminating from hitting the board? I'm trying to start with easy tosses, although that is proving to be somewhat difficult haha....

I think I feel comfortable eliminating

Vinceremos
Harry's Holiday
Uncle Sigh
Dance with Fate
We Miss Artie

Close to tossing General A Rod as well....
 
Those seem safe. The field isn't completely set yet.

I am really leaning towards 4X4X CA Chrome X 4 $0.50 Pick 4. I might even go 5x5x5 or close to it.
 
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