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Trump Will Win the Nomination

cville deac said:
I said this a few weeks ago - that it's possible Trump could win the EC but lose the popular vote by 5-6%. Not probable at all, but possible. But yeah, he could lose the left coast and NE by yuge margins, Hillary would lose the South by less than usual, and Trump is able to squeak by in some combo of PA (where I do think he'll play better than the usual Pub), OH, MI, VA and FL. While the chance may be small, I think it's much greater in this election cycle than any other I've lived through.
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I understand the concept, but I think 5%+ would be too much to overcome in the EC. That would be something on the order of 7 million votes or more. Don't think that big of a margin in the popular vote could be overcome in the EC. 1-2%? That would be possible, IMO.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Is there polling in first time voters? I don't think young voters are going to vote for trump in the general. Any evidence of drastic increases in voter registration across the country?
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Is bkf arguing that Trump is going to draw in tons of middle age white voters who have NEVER voted before? That's not likely.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I don't know how anybody can draw anything from what he has said with regards to policies. He has said nothing.

I've heard him talk about bombing terrorists families and committing war crimes. That's probably not going to be excellent for foreign relations.
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That's why I said statements, not policy positions.

"As far as the Ukraine is concerned, we have a group of people, and a group of countries, including Germany--why are we always doing the work? I'm all for protecting Ukraine--but, we have countries that are surrounding the Ukraine that aren't doing anything. They say, "Keep going, keep going, you dummies, keep going. Protect us." And we have to get smart. We can't continue to be the policeman of the world."

"Q: Well, let me button this up. If Saddam and Gaddafi were still in power, you think things would be more stable?
TRUMP: Of course it would be. You wouldn't have had your Benghazi situation, which is one thing, which was just a terrible situation.
Q: Would you pull out of what we're doing in Syria now?
TRUMP: no, I'd sit back."

"I don't want to see the United States get bogged down. We've spent now $2 trillion in Iraq, probably a trillion in Afghanistan. We're destroying our country."
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Is there polling in first time voters? I don't think young voters are going to vote for trump in the general. Any evidence of drastic increases in voter registration across the country?
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Do you really think that a bunch of new, young first-time voters are going to turn out to vote for Hillary? They are going to be completely disillusioned by the time they see all their efforts for Bernie get butt-fucked by Hillary's machine. It's hard enough to get young voters to the polls in the best of circumstances....and Hillary ain't "the best of circumstances".
 
18-24 year olds likely make up the majority of new voters each year and generally vote democrat at a very high rate
 
bobknightfan said:
It's already happening. Have you just slept thru all these primaries?
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NEVER voted? At all? I could buy people who hadn't voted in the last few elections, but not never. Trump's coalition is late 30s and older.
 
WFcatamount22 said:
That is total horseshit. If I do end up holding my nose and voting trump it will not be due to any of those reasons. I would vote for trump because I truly believe he is less likely to deploy US troops on the ground overseas, than his Neocon opponent Hilldawg. I also believe Trump will raise taxes on the richest one percent, and close loopholes that large corporation get to take advantage of while small companies get squeezed at every turn. Hillary is absolutely blowing wallstreet every chance she gets, and will never crack down on her honeyhole of power.

I disagree with trumps social and immigration policies, but trump can't build a wall unilaterally. Hillary can unilaterally get us into an overseas conflict.
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Oh sweet Jesus!
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
18-24 year olds likely make up the majority of new voters each year and generally vote democrat at a very high rate
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Right. Angry white new voters aren't going to out pace new young voters and Latino voters.
 
PhDeac said:
NEVER voted? At all? I could buy people who hadn't voted in the last few elections, but not never. Trump's coalition is late 30s and older.
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The term "never voted" is irrelevant. If GOP primary voting totals are up 60-70%, that means there are a hell of a lot of Republicans voting who didn't vote in recent elections. Whether they've never voted or only rarely voted is really meaningless.....though I am sure there have been many new 1st-time voters for Trump in these primaries.

You are almost certainly correct when you say that Trump's support is coming from voters in their 30s & older...but so what, that's where most of the votes come from, if all past history is any judge. I'm sure there are charts out there...because I have seen them....that show the percentage breakdown for the total vote by age group. And the 18 to 24 age group is always the lowest on the charts. If young people could be convinced to get off their lazy asses and vote, they could exert a lot of influence over the process. So far, though, nobody has been able to get them to do that in significant numbers. Obama got an effort out of them to improve the situation. You think these young voters are going to race to the polls to vote for Hillary? Hell, more of them will end up voting for Trump than anyone here is willing to admit.
 
I posted an article a few days back that looked at primary turnout over the past few elections and found no correlation between primary turnout and general election turnout
 
bobknightfan said:
The term "never voted" is irrelevant. If GOP primary voting totals are up 60-70%, that means there are a hell of a lot of Republicans voting who didn't vote in recent elections. Whether they've never voted or only rarely voted is really meaningless.....though I am sure there have been many new 1st-time voters for Trump in these primaries.

You are almost certainly correct when you say that Trump's support is coming from voters in their 30s & older...but so what, that's where most of the votes come from, if all past history is any judge. I'm sure there are charts out there...because I have seen them....that show the percentage breakdown for the total vote by age group. And the 18 to 24 age group is always the lowest on the charts. If young people could be convinced to get off their lazy asses and vote, they could exert a lot of influence over the process. So far, though, nobody has been able to get them to do that in significant numbers. Obama got an effort out of them to improve the situation. You think these young voters are going to race to the polls to vote for Hillary? Hell, more of them will end up voting for Trump than anyone here is willing to admit.
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You were the one saying Trump would draw a lot of first time voters.
 
PhDeac said:
Right. Angry white new voters aren't going to out pace new young voters and Latino voters.
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You know the first time that 18-year olds could vote? That's right. 1972. I was working in the McGovern campaign that year, fresh after being drafted into the army for 2 years. We just knew that, especially with a hated war going on that was being fed with 18-year old bodies, McGovern was going to beat Nixon by getting all these millions of new young voters.

Yeah, right. How'd that one turn out?
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
You're the one who said first time!
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The increase in the vote is all that matters. If someone votes who hasn't voted in 10 or 20 years, they might as well be considered a first time voter. Increase in turnout, by definition, indicates new voters. You guys can argue the semantics all you wish. You are merely creating a diversion....but, then, common sense never was a millennial strong point.
 
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