Pilchard
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On Saturday, WF completes its 3 game/6 day road trip with a visit to crazie-less Cameron Indoor Stadium. Here's a take on a Duke team that K doesn't seem to want to coach:
The season: Duke is 4-2 (2-0), but the ride has been rocky. So far, Duke's best win was over #90 ND by 10. Otherwise, the Devils suffered bad losses to two Big 10 teams (by 6 at home to #40 Michigan State; by 15 at home to #8 Illinois) or escaped with narrow wins against less than stellar competition (by 10 to #336 Coppin State, by 1 to #100 BC on Wednesday). Duke started the season at #2 in KP, and as the pre-season rankings have evolved based on in-season results, the Devils have fallen to #17. The Dookies encountered a key injury (their best player Jalen Johnson has been out since December 8 with a foot injury) and COVID issues (K has been out due to COVLID protocol, and his team sucking), causing the cancelation of a couple of OOC games. Duke has only played once since December 16 and looked rusty on D, escaping BC by 1 this week (BC blew a 16 point lead).
The lineup: Duke has had 9 different players start a game this year. Against BC, Duke started:
6-1 Fr. Jeremy Roach (double figure points in his last 3; 62% from 2; 33% from 3; assist leader)
6-2 Fr. DJ Steward (averaged 15 ppg game against ND and BC; 37% from 3)
6-2 Sr. Jordan Goldwire (4th year as a non-factor; 29% from 3)
6-9 So. Matthew Hurt (best player; #2 player in the ACC according to KP; leading scorer and rebounder; shooting 40% from 3, has scored 24 or more in each of last 3)
7-0 Fr. Mark Williams (a stiff; started against BC; scoreless missing both shots from the field and both FTs; has played more than 8 minutes in 1 of 6 games)
Off the bench, Duke played:
6-5 So. Wendell Moore (started to begin the season; coming off two scoreless games, exploded against BC for 25 points)
6-8 Fr. Jaemyn Brakefield (erratic freshman; 0 points 1 rebound in 9 minutes against BC; 10 points and 5 boards against ND)
6-6 Jr. Joey Baker (generally a nothing-burger, but of course, had his ACC career high point total of 11 against WF last year; has sucked all year shooting 20% from 3 and 43% for 2; will probably go off on Saturday)
Keep in mind that Duke's top class of 2020 recruit 6-9 Fr. F/C Jalen Johnson (projected high NBA lottery pick) is close to returning. Would be typical for Johnson to return against WF. Duke will be much better when Johnson returns and is 100%.
The analytics: Unusual Duke team: they don't get to the line often (#304 in FTA per FGA) and when they do, they struggle from the line (66% #256); Duke's 3 point shooting was atrocious in OOC games, but has improved over the last two against ND and BC (43% from 3, but both ND and BC are horrible defensive teams); as a result, this Duke team doesn't rely on the 3 as much as previous editions. The Devils committed 14 TOs against BC (5 by Roach). Like a lot of young teams, Duke's defense has been weak so far this year. Against ND and BC, the Devils allowed an effective FG% of 60%, but they did force some TOs (BC committed 21). Duke went small against BC starting 3 players 6-3 or less; would expect Moore to start on Saturday coming off his big game. The Dookies are really young ranking #338 in experience this year.
The bottom line: Recent K teams have started the year ahead of everyone else and then tailed off during the season. This year has been different. Duke has started slow (1-5 ATS), but will improve when Johnson returns, the freshman gain experience and K decides the team is worth his attention. No WF fan would be surprised if this is the game when K and Jalen Johnson return.
KP projects 79-65 Devils win. Against UVA, looked like WF has started to get its legs back, shooting over 50% from the field against an elite defensive team, and holding its own on the boards. Even so, third game in a row on the road for WF is a tough spot, and even if Jalen Johnson doesn't return for the Devils, it looks like Moore, Steward and Roach have started to find their mojo. For WF to have a chance, WF's pressure D will need to force TOs from Duke's inexperienced backcourt; also, Mucius will need to play high-level D on Hurt, and WF's three point shots will need to fall. That's a lot that needs to go right. Think the Deacs will put up a good fight, but don't see WF winning on Saturday. The Devils win and think the game may be significantly higher scoring than either the GT or UVA games.
The season: Duke is 4-2 (2-0), but the ride has been rocky. So far, Duke's best win was over #90 ND by 10. Otherwise, the Devils suffered bad losses to two Big 10 teams (by 6 at home to #40 Michigan State; by 15 at home to #8 Illinois) or escaped with narrow wins against less than stellar competition (by 10 to #336 Coppin State, by 1 to #100 BC on Wednesday). Duke started the season at #2 in KP, and as the pre-season rankings have evolved based on in-season results, the Devils have fallen to #17. The Dookies encountered a key injury (their best player Jalen Johnson has been out since December 8 with a foot injury) and COVID issues (K has been out due to COVLID protocol, and his team sucking), causing the cancelation of a couple of OOC games. Duke has only played once since December 16 and looked rusty on D, escaping BC by 1 this week (BC blew a 16 point lead).
The lineup: Duke has had 9 different players start a game this year. Against BC, Duke started:
6-1 Fr. Jeremy Roach (double figure points in his last 3; 62% from 2; 33% from 3; assist leader)
6-2 Fr. DJ Steward (averaged 15 ppg game against ND and BC; 37% from 3)
6-2 Sr. Jordan Goldwire (4th year as a non-factor; 29% from 3)
6-9 So. Matthew Hurt (best player; #2 player in the ACC according to KP; leading scorer and rebounder; shooting 40% from 3, has scored 24 or more in each of last 3)
7-0 Fr. Mark Williams (a stiff; started against BC; scoreless missing both shots from the field and both FTs; has played more than 8 minutes in 1 of 6 games)
Off the bench, Duke played:
6-5 So. Wendell Moore (started to begin the season; coming off two scoreless games, exploded against BC for 25 points)
6-8 Fr. Jaemyn Brakefield (erratic freshman; 0 points 1 rebound in 9 minutes against BC; 10 points and 5 boards against ND)
6-6 Jr. Joey Baker (generally a nothing-burger, but of course, had his ACC career high point total of 11 against WF last year; has sucked all year shooting 20% from 3 and 43% for 2; will probably go off on Saturday)
Keep in mind that Duke's top class of 2020 recruit 6-9 Fr. F/C Jalen Johnson (projected high NBA lottery pick) is close to returning. Would be typical for Johnson to return against WF. Duke will be much better when Johnson returns and is 100%.
The analytics: Unusual Duke team: they don't get to the line often (#304 in FTA per FGA) and when they do, they struggle from the line (66% #256); Duke's 3 point shooting was atrocious in OOC games, but has improved over the last two against ND and BC (43% from 3, but both ND and BC are horrible defensive teams); as a result, this Duke team doesn't rely on the 3 as much as previous editions. The Devils committed 14 TOs against BC (5 by Roach). Like a lot of young teams, Duke's defense has been weak so far this year. Against ND and BC, the Devils allowed an effective FG% of 60%, but they did force some TOs (BC committed 21). Duke went small against BC starting 3 players 6-3 or less; would expect Moore to start on Saturday coming off his big game. The Dookies are really young ranking #338 in experience this year.
The bottom line: Recent K teams have started the year ahead of everyone else and then tailed off during the season. This year has been different. Duke has started slow (1-5 ATS), but will improve when Johnson returns, the freshman gain experience and K decides the team is worth his attention. No WF fan would be surprised if this is the game when K and Jalen Johnson return.
KP projects 79-65 Devils win. Against UVA, looked like WF has started to get its legs back, shooting over 50% from the field against an elite defensive team, and holding its own on the boards. Even so, third game in a row on the road for WF is a tough spot, and even if Jalen Johnson doesn't return for the Devils, it looks like Moore, Steward and Roach have started to find their mojo. For WF to have a chance, WF's pressure D will need to force TOs from Duke's inexperienced backcourt; also, Mucius will need to play high-level D on Hurt, and WF's three point shots will need to fall. That's a lot that needs to go right. Think the Deacs will put up a good fight, but don't see WF winning on Saturday. The Devils win and think the game may be significantly higher scoring than either the GT or UVA games.
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