Pilchard
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Steve Forbes takes our Deacs over to Chapel Hill tomorrow to challenge Old Roy Williams and his UNC Tar Heels. Here is an update on our opponent:
This season: Consistently overrated and despite finishing last year tied for DFL in the ACC, UNC entered the season ranked #16 in both the AP and Coaches poll. After a solid start in the pre-season tourney in Ashville, recently, UNC has played mediocre basketball (5-5 in their last 10). The Heels' top 100 wins are over: #46 Stanford by 4, #55 KY by 12, #87 ND by 1, #77 Miami by 2 and #51 Cuse by 6. Yes, UNC's best two wins this year are over middle-tier Pac 12 Stanford and bottom tier ACC team Miami. UNC fell straight up against: #8 Texas by 2, #3 Iowa by 13, #59 NC State by 3, #74 GT by 5 and #19 FSU by 7. Overall, the Heels stand at 8-5 and 3-3 in the ACC. FWIW, all 6 of the Heels' ACC games have decided by 7 or less.
The lineup: In the Saturday loss to FSU, UNC started:
6-4 Fr. Caleb Love -- assist and TO leader (1 to 1); struggled to score; averaging 7 ppg in ACC play; 21% from 3; alleged 1st round pick in the 2021 NBA draft
6-5 Fr. Kerwin Walton -- coming off career 14 at FSU; UNC's best threat from 3 44%;
6-8 Jr. Leaky Black -- HOF name; started all, but one game, but can't score; season high is 10 points; shooting 29% from 3 and 40% from 2; steals leader
6-10 So. Armando Bacot -- world class ugly; leading scorer and rebounder at 11.2 ppg and 7.8 rpg; 62% from 2; 67% from the line; no threat from 3
6-10 Sr. Garrison Brooks -- disappointing season; was ACC pre-season POY, but his numbers are down across the board; Roy benched Brooks for a couple of games after the loss to State; 44% from 2; NBA prospects dimming
The bench:
6-0 Anthony Harris -- RS in 2020; returned to play for the first time against FSU; scored 5 points;
6-4 Sr. Andrew Platek -- Awful for 3 years; has stepped up this year, but still a marginal ACC player; 33% from 3; coming off a 2 pt. 1-6 from the field game at FSU
6-11 Fr. Day'Ron Sharpe -- Projected 1st round NBA pick; broke out for 25 in the win over ND, but has scored 8 or less 8 times this year; another 5 star who has failed to reach his potential
7-1 Walker Kessler -- Awkward; non-factor in ACC play; fouls a lot
The analytics: UNC is huge. They are the 2nd biggest team in the ACC (behind only FSU) and 7th biggest in the country as they rotate 4 players 6-10 or bigger. UNC can't shoot. That are DFL in the ACC in effective FG%, 2 PT % (shocking given their size) and have been below average from 3 for the season (31% on the year; #264). They also commit a ton of TO as the Heels are 14th in the ACC in TO% in conference games (WF is last); and the Heels are first in the conference in giving up steals. UNC's one strength on offense is cleaning up offensive rebounds (#1 in the ACC, grabbing 42% of their missed shots; and the Heels miss a lot of shots). On defense, they give up few offensive rebounds (#2 in the ACC in preventing offensive boards), and the Heels block shots #5 in the ACC. UNC plays the 2nd fastest tempo in conference games averaging 71.3 possessions a game.
Bottom line: UNC's size will give WF lots of problems. Ody, Mucius and Okpomo will need to play big and stay out of foul trouble and try to limit offensive boards surrendered; WF guards will need to board too. UNC has been a terrible shooting team all year, but WF is last in 2 PT FG defense allowing ACC opponents to make a frightening 63% of their 2 point shots in conference games. Keep waiting for Garrison Brooks to go off, but it has not happened yet. KP projects a 77-65 UNC win over 70 possessions. Since beating Charleston and UNLV to start the year UNC has not won a game by more than 12 points all year, including a narrow 6 point win over NC Central. Hope the Heels keep misfiring and committing TOs. Think WF hangs for awhile, but just seems like the Heels size will be too much to overcome. WF loses by 8 to 10.
This season: Consistently overrated and despite finishing last year tied for DFL in the ACC, UNC entered the season ranked #16 in both the AP and Coaches poll. After a solid start in the pre-season tourney in Ashville, recently, UNC has played mediocre basketball (5-5 in their last 10). The Heels' top 100 wins are over: #46 Stanford by 4, #55 KY by 12, #87 ND by 1, #77 Miami by 2 and #51 Cuse by 6. Yes, UNC's best two wins this year are over middle-tier Pac 12 Stanford and bottom tier ACC team Miami. UNC fell straight up against: #8 Texas by 2, #3 Iowa by 13, #59 NC State by 3, #74 GT by 5 and #19 FSU by 7. Overall, the Heels stand at 8-5 and 3-3 in the ACC. FWIW, all 6 of the Heels' ACC games have decided by 7 or less.
The lineup: In the Saturday loss to FSU, UNC started:
6-4 Fr. Caleb Love -- assist and TO leader (1 to 1); struggled to score; averaging 7 ppg in ACC play; 21% from 3; alleged 1st round pick in the 2021 NBA draft
6-5 Fr. Kerwin Walton -- coming off career 14 at FSU; UNC's best threat from 3 44%;
6-8 Jr. Leaky Black -- HOF name; started all, but one game, but can't score; season high is 10 points; shooting 29% from 3 and 40% from 2; steals leader
6-10 So. Armando Bacot -- world class ugly; leading scorer and rebounder at 11.2 ppg and 7.8 rpg; 62% from 2; 67% from the line; no threat from 3
6-10 Sr. Garrison Brooks -- disappointing season; was ACC pre-season POY, but his numbers are down across the board; Roy benched Brooks for a couple of games after the loss to State; 44% from 2; NBA prospects dimming
The bench:
6-0 Anthony Harris -- RS in 2020; returned to play for the first time against FSU; scored 5 points;
6-4 Sr. Andrew Platek -- Awful for 3 years; has stepped up this year, but still a marginal ACC player; 33% from 3; coming off a 2 pt. 1-6 from the field game at FSU
6-11 Fr. Day'Ron Sharpe -- Projected 1st round NBA pick; broke out for 25 in the win over ND, but has scored 8 or less 8 times this year; another 5 star who has failed to reach his potential
7-1 Walker Kessler -- Awkward; non-factor in ACC play; fouls a lot
The analytics: UNC is huge. They are the 2nd biggest team in the ACC (behind only FSU) and 7th biggest in the country as they rotate 4 players 6-10 or bigger. UNC can't shoot. That are DFL in the ACC in effective FG%, 2 PT % (shocking given their size) and have been below average from 3 for the season (31% on the year; #264). They also commit a ton of TO as the Heels are 14th in the ACC in TO% in conference games (WF is last); and the Heels are first in the conference in giving up steals. UNC's one strength on offense is cleaning up offensive rebounds (#1 in the ACC, grabbing 42% of their missed shots; and the Heels miss a lot of shots). On defense, they give up few offensive rebounds (#2 in the ACC in preventing offensive boards), and the Heels block shots #5 in the ACC. UNC plays the 2nd fastest tempo in conference games averaging 71.3 possessions a game.
Bottom line: UNC's size will give WF lots of problems. Ody, Mucius and Okpomo will need to play big and stay out of foul trouble and try to limit offensive boards surrendered; WF guards will need to board too. UNC has been a terrible shooting team all year, but WF is last in 2 PT FG defense allowing ACC opponents to make a frightening 63% of their 2 point shots in conference games. Keep waiting for Garrison Brooks to go off, but it has not happened yet. KP projects a 77-65 UNC win over 70 possessions. Since beating Charleston and UNLV to start the year UNC has not won a game by more than 12 points all year, including a narrow 6 point win over NC Central. Hope the Heels keep misfiring and committing TOs. Think WF hangs for awhile, but just seems like the Heels size will be too much to overcome. WF loses by 8 to 10.
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