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Wake (#9 CFP, #5 SOR) at UNC (UNC-2.5) 12:00 noon, ABC

PhDeac said:
Recruiting rankings are plenty accurate. If you have several 4 or 5 stars, it's more likely you'll have great players with one or two duds. If you have one or two 4 or stars, they could be the duds.
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This is well-plowed ground, but:

Clawson is a great coach; even so, recruiting rankings can't be that accurate if WF is the 9th best team in the country as WF wasn't even close to 9th out of 14 in the ACC in recruiting in any of the recent years:

2017: WF ranked 68th nationally; 14th in the ACC (WF signed 21, 6 were nationally rated, among the non-nationally rated -- meaning not in the top 1000 HS players -- Sage Surratt, Jaquarii Roberson, Zach Tom, Sean Maginn, Loic Nya, Ja'Sir Taylor)
2018: WF ranked 64th nationally; 13th in the ACC (3 lowest rated scholarship recruits still on the roster: Nick Sciba, Dion Bergan, Zion Keith)
2019: WF ranked 59th nationally; 12th in the ACC (lowest rated recruit; possibly the lowest rated recruit in the ACC: Heisman finalist KW3; 2nd lowest rated non-kicker/punter recruit: Tyler Morin)
2020: WF ranked 60th nationally; 11th in the ACC (two of the lowest four rated scholarship recruits: Justice Ellison and Ke'shawn Williams)
2021: WF ranked 66th nationally; 14th in the ACC

Those rankings are so off that there is no defending them on any level. If there was any validity to recruiting rankings for WF there is no explanation for where WF is and where Duke is (Duke had collectively the same or better recruiting rankings over that time period). Recruiting rankings are great for the top 250 players: the guys that typically go to Bama, Clemson, tOSU. Those guys are so good, idiot non-coaches can see their talent. After that, there is no recruiting rankings that validly rank players between #250 to #1500 in a HS class. There is no rational explanation as to why recruiting services had Nolan Groulx (the #362 player and #2 WF recruit in 2019) as 1,000 ranking slots ahead of KW3. Groulx is picking his nose on the UNC-Charlotte sidelines against MTSU while KW3 is cementing his Heisman resume against Michigan.
 
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Buttermaker said:
I'm with Biff on this one. Our D puts a lot of pressure on the O to keep scoring (except the Duke game, notably). Which we have done. But you worry about a Hartman off game.
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In conference only games we're 4th in the league in scoring defense and only 3.8 points became behind the league leader.
 
Yeah. And people get it twisted because there are around 30 5* recruits every year, a few hundred 4*, and almost all the rest of P5 players are 3*. So yeah, there are plenty of 3* success stories, because there are a lot of 3* athletes and 3* athletes are the majority of all but the top 15-20 or so programs.
 
ChrisL68 said:
In conference only games we're 4th in the league in scoring defense and only 3.8 points became behind the league leader.
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And so far, in conference, we've played three of the bottom four teams in the Atlantic, the worst team in the Coastal and the league overall, and UVA.
 
247's top recruiting classes

2017
1. Bama; 2. Ohio State; 3. Georgia

2018
1. Georgia; 2. Ohio State; ... 5. Bama

2019
1. Bama; 2. Georgia; ... 14. Ohio State (OSU took a small class)

2020
1. Georgia; 2. Bama; ... 5. Ohio State

https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/CompositeTeamRankings/

2021 CFP Rankings:
1. Georgia; 2. Bama; ... 5. Ohio State

Looks like pretty strong correlation to me. WF looks like an outlier and not the norm.
 
Beat UNC convincingly, with a relatively commendable defensive showing, and there's a chance to leap frog a bye-week OU.
 
Think that Purdue beats Michigan State on Saturday.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
Also bears mentioning that there are often extenuating circumstances when a heralded ranked recruit commits to a less heralded program.
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Yeah. I wasn't going to go there, but it's possible a kid gets a 4* grade because he performs well in a few camps early but for whatever personal or performance reasons big time schools sour on him and he ends up elsewhere.

thatguy2016 said:
247's top recruiting classes

2017
1. Bama; 2. Ohio State; 3. Georgia

2018
1. Georgia; 2. Ohio State; ... 5. Bama

2019
1. Bama; 2. Georgia; ... 14. Ohio State (OSU took a small class)

2020
1. Georgia; 2. Bama; ... 5. Ohio State

https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/CompositeTeamRankings/

2021 CFP Rankings:
1. Georgia; 2. Bama; ... 5. Ohio State

Looks like pretty strong correlation to me. WF looks like an outlier and not the norm.
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Yeah. No one is saying that a strong coaching staff, S&C program, and schemes can't overcome recruiting rankings. Bad coaching, etc can also render recruiting rankings inert.

Also bears mentioning that plenty of recruits don't actually make it to the field.
 
the Ja'cquez Williams transfer was kinda puzzling because he started and he went to a lower tier football school

always wondered what the story was there
 
We had a 34-27 lead against Syracuse with 2:17 left and Syracuse had the ball at their own 6-yard line. Do I need to remind you what happened ?

We had a 34-27 lead against Louisville with 3:47 left and Louisville started at their own 20-yard line. Do I need to remind you what happened ?

Bad defense happened in both instances, as it had been happening throughout the game.

It's not just the Army game.
 
BiffTannen said:
We had a 34-27 lead against Syracuse with 2:17 left and Syracuse had the ball at their own 6-yard line. Do I need to remind you what happened ?

We had a 34-27 lead against Louisville with 3:47 left and Louisville started at their own 20-yard line. Do I need to remind you what happened ?

Bad defense happened in both instances, as it had been happening throughout the game.

It's not just the Army game.
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sounds like a 34-27 lead is the problem to me
 
Pilchard said:
This is well-plowed ground, but:

Clawson is a great coach, recruiting rankings can't be that accurate if WF is the 9th best team in the country as WF wasn't even 9th out of 14 in the ACC in recruiting in recent years:

2017: WF ranked 68th nationally; 14th in the ACC (WF signed 21, 6 were nationally rated, among the non-nationally rated -- meaning not in the top 1000 HS players -- Sage Surratt, Jaquarii Roberson, Zach Tom, Sean Maginn, Loic Nya, Ja'Sir Taylor)
2018: WF ranked 64th nationally; 13th in the ACC (3 lowest rated scholarship recruits still on the roster: Nick Sciba, Dion Bergan, Zion Keith)
2019: WF ranked 59th nationally; 12th in the ACC (lowest rated recruit; possibly the lowest rated recruit in the ACC: Heisman finalist KW3; 2nd lowest rated non-kicker/punter recruit: Tyler Morin)
2020: WF ranked 60th nationally; 11th in the ACC (two of the lowest four rated scholarship recruits: Justice Ellison and Ke'shawn Williams)
2021: WF ranked 66th nationally; 14th in the ACC

Those rankings are so off that there is no defending them on any level. If there was any validity to recruiting rankings for WF there is no explanation for where WF is and where Duke is (Duke had collectively the same or better recruiting rankings over that time period). Recruiting rankings are great for the top 250 players: the guys that typically go to Bama, Clemson, tOSU. Those guys are so good, idiot non-coaches can see their talent. After that, there is no recruiting rankings that validly rank players between #250 to #1500 in a HS class. There is no rational explanation as to why recruiting services had Nolan Groulx (the #362 player and #2 WF recruit in 2019) as 1,000 ranking slots ahead of KW3. Groulx is picking his nose on the UNC-Charlotte sidelines against MTSU while KW3 is cementing his Heisman resume against Michigan.
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Exceptions do not negate the rule. If it was true we'd see more stories like this in P5(not G5) schools and Dan Mullen wouldn't be getting his head bashed in at Florida right now. Coaching can only take you so far and it's not like giving someone a 3 star is bad. From 247sports themselves: "One of the top 10% players in the nation. This player will develop into a reliable starter for his college team and is among the best players in his region of the country. Many three-stars have significant pro potential."

Ratings are projections things like measurables matter when projecting. A 6-5, 220 wide receiver that runs a 4.5 is going to project a lot higher than say a 6-1 kid in shoes that probably runs a 4.6/4.7, but the 6-1 kid may just develop better and get better coaching in college. You can't project those things just see what they do at camps, HS, etc. Camps are the biggest thing(regardless of your feelings on them), if you aren't going to the recruiting camps and giving verified measurements, playing against other "top-level" talent(a lot of people rack up numbers against bad competition), you will not get moved up the rankings.

We've already seen that in the '22 rankings: Wesley Grimes went to a couple of camps which backed up his HS stuff and got moved to an 87 on 247sports and I'd assume will be moving higher as he's been absurd this year. Andre Hodge passed over verified measurements and his 40 time(a legit 6-1 corner running a 4.37 hand time so probably 4.47 laser) and went from completely unranked to a solid 85. On measurables alone: 5'10, 180 and runs a sub 11 100 meter dash, Demond Claiborne got an 89. If he went to camps to verify the size and get a legit 40 time(so you don't have to extrapolate) I'm almost positive he'd be a 4 star
 
deachus said:
sounds like a 34-27 lead is the problem to me
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This would be an excellent week to see Greer back at full strength and Taylor resembling some form of the #1 CB we need him to be.
 
CamLemons said:
Exceptions do not negate the rule. If it was true we'd see more stories like this in P5(not G5) schools and Dan Mullen wouldn't be getting his head bashed in at Florida right now. Coaching can only take you so far and it's not like giving someone a 3 star is bad. From 247sports themselves: "One of the top 10% players in the nation. This player will develop into a reliable starter for his college team and is among the best players in his region of the country. Many three-stars have significant pro potential."

Ratings are projections things like measurables matter when projecting. A 6-5, 220 wide receiver that runs a 4.5 is going to project a lot higher than say a 6-1 kid in shoes that probably runs a 4.6/4.7, but the 6-1 kid may just develop better and get better coaching in college. You can't project those things just see what they do at camps, HS, etc. Camps are the biggest thing(regardless of your feelings on them), if you aren't going to the recruiting camps and giving verified measurements, playing against other "top-level" talent(a lot of people rack up numbers against bad competition), you will not get moved up the rankings.

We've already seen that in the '22 rankings: Wesley Grimes went to a couple of camps which backed up his HS stuff and got moved to an 87 on 247sports and I'd assume will be moving higher as he's been absurd this year. Andre Hodge passed over verified measurements and his 40 time(a legit 6-1 corner running a 4.37 hand time so probably 4.47 laser) and went from completely unranked to a solid 85. On measurables alone: 5'10, 180 and runs a sub 11 100 meter dash, Demond Claiborne got an 89. If he went to camps to verify the size and get a legit 40 time(so you don't have to extrapolate) I'm almost positive he'd be a 4 star
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This should probably go on another thread, but: all agree there is validity to the highest rated recruits in each class. Bama, Clemson, tOSU, UGA, OU typically sit atop the recruiting rankings, and win the most games and send the most players to the NFL. Where recruiting rankings become less accurate is after the top 250 players are rated. VT, GT and even BC have higher rated recruiting classes than recent Clawson classes. However, WF has been better on the field, and produce as many if not more NFL players. Some of it is development. Some of it is that its just really difficult to distinguish between the #87 DE and the #187 DE. Clawson and staff are better at selecting who to offer than the recruiting services are at rating players outside the top 250 (Clawson should be). FWIW, if WF's success continues, the Deacs are going to start to get the benefit of the doubt when recruiting players, and players that WF offers are going to get a bump (this already happens as schools will re-examine a player and may offer, Michigan with Claiborne, ND with Grimes) if they get a WF offer.
 
Just pointing out that whole lot of 4 and 5 Stars are gone after three years and replaced by other 4 and 5 Stars, so you're comparing a 2018 (or 2019) 5-star at Alabama to a 2017 (or 2016) 3 Star at Wake in some cases.
 
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