If scheduling like that was absurd, people wouldn’t schedule like that after talking thinks over with the conference and the NCAA. You’re only punished for winning if that’s all you schedule (being like 250ish) AND you have no good wins
Spin it this way, if you set yourself up with a pretty difficult OOC there are four ways it can go:
Win in non con and win in league, golden option
Win in non con and lose in league, pretty standard case of “well they played themselves out of the tournament”
Lose in non con and win in league, probably find yourself on the bubble and you’re in god’s hands there of if you actually make it.
Lose in both, done.
You have one good result, 2 bad results, and one coin flip. That is not setting yourself up for success especially if you do not have the pedigree to let people give you the benefit of the doubt.