12-5 Upsets Statistically

[GSOWakeFan]

Since the inception of the 64-team tournament in 1985 each seed # has played the same other # seed in the first round. These are the the percentages of one seed beating another: (doesn't include 2013)

The #1 seed has beaten the #16 seed all 88 times (100%).

The #2 seed has beaten the #15 seed 84 times (95%).

The #3 seed has beaten the #14 seed 73 times (83%).

The #4 team has beaten the #13 seed 70 times (80%).

The #5 seed has beaten the #12 seed 59 times (67%).65% now

The #6 seed has beaten the #11 seed 61 times (69%).

The #7 team has beaten the #10 seed 53 times (60%).

The #8 team has beaten the #9 seed 41 times (47%).



Anyone have an opinion (well of course you do) why the 12-5 game has a high upset rate?

 

[DeaconCav06]

They're usually low or mid majors and we really don't know much about them? They have played solid competition but not enough to warrant a higher seed.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

Bad seeding...a lot of it is mid-majors who were not given enough respect so they got a low seed while teams at the five spot were typically a little bit worse teams who got good seeds (power conference types).

 

[Wakeforest22890]

Ole Miss and Oregon being 12 seeds was laughable this year as well.

 

[PhDeac]

It's a similar rate as the 6-11. Makes sense because 13 is typically mid or low major champs and 11 and 12 are the lowest at large teams. Doesn't look unusually high in context.

 

[bmoneydeac]

what are the typical kenpom odds of a team A upsetting team B when there are ~25-30 spots in between them in power ranking on a neutral floor? i'd guess it's not that different from the 35% you see in the 5-12 tourney history.

 

[Shorty]

Not including this year, there have been 28 64-team tournaments since 1985, which would mean each seed has played the other 112 times, not 88.

What am I missing?

 

[CHillDeac]

Ole Miss and Oregon being 12 seeds was laughable this year as well.

Ron was pissed that Tony Woods was playing in the tourney.

 

[dot com]

Not including this year, there have been 28 64-team tournaments since 1985, which would mean each seed has played the other 112 times, not 88.

What am I missing?

The ones Duke wasn't in Coach K petitioned to have erased.

 

[stonz]

Typically the largest gap in seed-line team quality is between a 12 and 13 seed.

12 seeds are typically at-large teams, or elite mid-majors.
13 seeds are typically auto bid teams from one bid leagues.

Another huge gap is between 15 and 16, because some conferences are truly awful, and some conference tournaments have surprise (read: bad) winners.

 

[ChrisL68]

It's a similar rate as the 6-11. Makes sense because 13 is typically mid or low major champs and 11 and 12 are the lowest at large teams. Doesn't look unusually high in context.

This

 

[WakeFanAdam]

Before Georgetown tonight, #15 has upset #2 6 times. So those stats must be old.

 

[TexasDeac71]

Before Georgetown tonight, #15 has upset #2 6 times. So those stats must be old.

Obviously, because 88 match ups (#1 vs #16) equates to 22 seasons yet 1985 until 2012 is 28 seasons.....missing 6 seasons, it appears....

 

[TheReff]

#12 to the Sweet 16. First time since Richmond a few years ago.

 

[ProbationDeac]

You have "mid majors" that have gotten higher seeds when in the past might have been 10, 11, and 12 seeds. On the other side power conference teams are getting lower seeds then they might have in the past. Not surprised to see so many 12 seeds doing well.

 

[Neurodeac]

Typically the largest gap in seed-line team quality is between a 12 and 13 seed.

12 seeds are typically at-large teams, or elite mid-majors.
13 seeds are typically auto bid teams from one bid leagues.

Another huge gap is between 15 and 16, because some conferences are truly awful, and some conference tournaments have surprise (read: bad) winners.

Bingo. I was going to make this point. Also the undervalued mid major theory is debunked by oregon and ole miss. If anything I think the pendulum has swung and the mid majors are overvalued now.