ACC Basketball Simulation

[CumberlandDeac]

Awesome simulation done by @Spherologue using @DanHanner 's college basketball projections.

He simulated the ACC season 10,000 times and the chart below displays the distribution of results.

Prediction of every team found here on ESPN Insider.

Highlights for Wake:

ACC Finsh:
1-4 0.0%
5-6 0.9%
7-10 19.6%
11-12 25.5%
13-15 54.0%

 

[mercurydime]

Roger sends.

 

[redwing42]

Wow... VT must either be terrible, or have some factors that don't work well in predictions. Also, why are the numbers completely screwy when you look down the graph, instead of across it? Shouldn't those numbers add up to 100% as well, since there always has to be a team in each position? Or are ties skewing the numbers?

 

[Spot the Wonder]

Wow... VT must either be terrible, or have some factors that don't work well in predictions. Also, why are the numbers completely screwy when you look down the graph, instead of across it? Shouldn't those numbers add up to 100% as well, since there always has to be a team in each position? Or are ties skewing the numbers?

There's a better than 100% chance of someone finishing first, but only about an 80% chance of a team finishing 15th. I take that to mean the conference is LOADED.

 

[CumberlandDeac]

Wow... VT must either be terrible, or have some factors that don't work well in predictions. Also, why are the numbers completely screwy when you look down the graph, instead of across it? Shouldn't those numbers add up to 100% as well, since there always has to be a team in each position? Or are ties skewing the numbers?

Good question. I'm assuming ties, but I'm not sure.

 

[TownieDeac]

So you're saying there's...wait...dammit.

 

[Ayo]

So there's like an 80% chance we finish 11th or worse. In year 4. Couldn't be happier.

 

[ChaosDeac]

Good question. I'm assuming ties, but I'm not sure.

I think it's that. Look at the "most likely" finishes for each school:
Duke - 1
UVA - 1
UNC - 1
Cuse - 1
Pitt - 5
ND - 6
UMD - 7
GT - 8
BC - 8
Clemson - 10
FSU - 11
Miami - 11
NCSU - 11
WF - 14
VT - 15

So the highest probability for each team does dictate a possible finish, but it is messy (*Clemson was tied for 10th/11th in % so I put it at 10)

 

[duncandonut]

Roger sends.

I laughed.