Article RE: Analysis of Black Voter Turnout in 2008 vs. 2004

[ncsportsnut1]

https://webspace.utexas.edu/tsp228/www/Philpot, Shaw, and McGowen.pdf

Looming question of 2012 is whether black voters will turnout in the same record numbers as 2008, or drop back to historical norms of 2004, 2000, etc. Will record unemployment among African-Americans along with the opposition of African-American pastors to gay marriage bring down the number of African-Americans who vote? Or will they not go to polls at all?

Excerpts:

"Black voter turnout in 2008 was 65.2 percent—an all-time high—with about 15.9million Blacks casting ballots."

"At the same time, overall turnout in the United States rose from 123.5 million
(60.1 percent of theVEP) to 132.6million (62.3 percent of theVEP). The logical
suggestion is that increased Black turnout was a huge part of Obama’s win."

"Nationally,
we see that the Black share of the vote went from 11 percent in 2004 to 13 percent
in 2008 (see table 1). In addition, support for the Democratic nominee
went from 88 percent in 2004 to 95 percent in 2008. This means that the total
number of Black votes for the Democratic candidate went from 12.0 million
to 15.1 million; close to 3.2 million extra votes for the Democratic candidate."

 

[RJKarl]

Keep dreaming

 

[WFFaithful]

I expect black and overall turnout to be lower this time around.

 

[RJKarl]

It'll be lower, but Romney will get under 5%.

 

[WFU71]

It'll be lower, but Romney will get under 5%.

As did McCain

 

[RJKarl]

And Romney will get significantly less Hispanic votes than McCain did. If there is lower black turnout this will more than make up for it.

The question is will Obama and his SuperPACS flood FL with the Ryan Plan to cut Romney's older vote.

 

[Go]

Black people are finished.