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BillBrasky Memorial Political Chat Thread

As "bad" as the economy is, people are sure as hell still spending money though. When you're posting a receipt about how much a fast food burger cost, you obviously still bought the food.

Feelings and actions are two completely different things.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
As "bad" as the economy is, people are sure as hell still spending money though. When you're posting a receipt about how much a fast food burger cost, you obviously still bought the food.

Feelings and actions are two completely different things.
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Those record breaking number of flights weren't empty on Sunday.
 
Now obviously, whether people will vote on their feelings or reality of their actions is another big question.

I, for one, hope we keep reading these "THE ECONOMY IS GOOD, BUT HERE'S WHY THAT'S BAD FOR JOE BIDEN" articles.
 
Also a good point - people are spending, but what are they using to spend? Discretionary income of their own, or credit?
 
I mean yea to MDMH’s point, we probably shouldn’t just rely on any one indicator for whether something so nebulous and massive as the US economy is “good” or “bad.” Especially as Ph notes in a time with such disastrous inequality skewing averages or GDP or stock market data.

There’s labor force participation which looks good but wage data that looks less than good, spending that looks good but debt and new loan origination and consumer goods cost data that looks bad.

It’s why I wouldn’t just scoff at “feelings” when perception is reality at the voting booth.
 
I'm not really "scoffing" at feelings. I certainly feel it in my day-to-day life too.

Blaming Biden for what's going on, and then voting for a party that will assuredly make it worse for folks in their day-to-day is nonsensical in my mind. I know people have to blame somebody and voting is the best way to make change, it's just frustrating.
 
Whatever, we’re saying similar things.

I’d argue most Democrats (at least ones with a chance of winning the presidency) don’t really try hard at reducing inequality or making material improvements in those “feelings” people’s lives either, they’re just keeping the wolves at the door out. And it’s not the most compelling story to struggling families that they’re fighting fascism or believing the science or whatever, that seems to target a fairly narrow swath of suburbia. The messaging around the economy from the Democrats mostly sucks.

I agree blaming Biden for it is a little dumb, it’s too structurally enforced for any President to really impact things too much in any direction. But people tend to like or at least understand the lower taxes message more than they would stuff about interest rates talk or other ways the Fed tries to fight inflation.
 
I think it was a lot easier to blame things happening domestically on presidents and government when the world was so isolated. Somehow this concept has never left American’s feelings despite a very connected global economy. Comparison to the rest of the world and the country is doing fantastic. Now that obviously doesn’t replace the day to day that people feel with x% inflation but it truly could be a lot worse.
 
BarcaDeac said:
But, I'm sure the egg price fixing was isolated and the rest of the high prices are still Biden's fault
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This is also a huge part of my thinking, you can’t blame a president, but I do wish there was at least some party interested in taking on antitrust and corporate greed in a more meaningful way like we did a century ago. Of course Republicans won’t do it, but if you want to stand up for consumers, there are some meaningful ways to do it that still don’t hurt small business.
 
Yeah, my biggest problem with Democrats is that they are still pretty far right overall. There isn't a true progressive party in America, especially compared to other nations.

Nobody is really looking out for the average man/woman anymore.
 
TownieDeac said:
I mean yea to MDMH’s point, we probably shouldn’t just rely on any one indicator for whether something so nebulous and massive as the US economy is “good” or “bad.” Especially as Ph notes in a time with such disastrous inequality skewing averages or GDP or stock market data.

There’s labor force participation which looks good but wage data that looks less than good, spending that looks good but debt and new loan origination and consumer goods cost data that looks bad.

It’s why I wouldn’t just scoff at “feelings” when perception is reality at the voting booth.
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Agree that we shouldn't just look at one indicator, but a lot of the indicators are really good right now. Super low unemployment. Wages growing faster than inflation, with the biggest gains at the bottom of the income distribution. Huge gains in wealth across the board, even adjusted for inflation. Super low debt burdens (overall debt it up, but income and wealth are up even more, so debt burdens are better). From this Claudia Sahm substack:

Americans are financially better off regarding their jobs, wages, spending, wealth, and debt. And all of that after we account for inflation. We are in a better place.

It’s a huge accomplishment—we should celebrate and build on it.
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Not trying to argue things are perfect. More work to be done and all that. But the sentiment "the economy is terrible!" seems totally divorced from reality.
 
maybe the wage gains at the bottom of the income distribution are why this feels so shitty
 
tiltdeac said:
Agree that we shouldn't just look at one indicator, but a lot of the indicators are really good right now. Super low unemployment. Wages growing faster than inflation, with the biggest gains at the bottom of the income distribution. Huge gains in wealth across the board, even adjusted for inflation. Super low debt burdens (overall debt it up, but income and wealth are up even more, so debt burdens are better). From this Claudia Sahm substack:



Not trying to argue things are perfect. More work to be done and all that. But the sentiment "the economy is terrible!" seems totally divorced from reality.
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Macroeconomists and folks who feel good about the economy should celebrate it. Folks who are living paycheck to paycheck or who haven't experienced much of a recovery from the COVID disaster should feel entitled to feel how they're gonna feel.

I'm a big Sahm fan, but I just don't know what the upshot of telling people to be happy is gonna be.
 
Strickland33 said:
Macroeconomists and folks who feel good about the economy should celebrate it. Folks who are living paycheck to paycheck or who haven't experienced much of a recovery from the COVID disaster should feel entitled to feel how they're gonna feel.

I'm a big Sahm fan, but I just don't know what the upshot of telling people to be happy is gonna be.
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I guess I think there is value in celebrating objectively great economic news, especially when it is concentrated at the bottom of the income distribution. Of course there is still individual hardship, and the intent is not to tell any individual they should be happy about their own personal circumstance. But when most people are much better off, it's a good thing to report that, especially when so much of reporting, and particularly social media, is so gloomy. Can't prove it of course, but I really think social media is a big reason for the huge split between the economic realities and polling sentiment.
 
Which social media explanation do you believe?
 
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