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Bracketology 2017

wsc8521s said:
They're also using '09-13 data of who got selected to predict bids this year, which fails to account for teams that got bids based off good metrics -- a trend that has popped up in the last few years, and a position Wake finds itself in.

Perhaps not coincidentally they were wrong about Wichita and Vandy last year, and UCLA the year before, each of which had good metrics. And on the flip side, they had '14-15 Temple and '15-16 St. Bonaventure in the field, and they both missed, and they both had bad metrics
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Absolutely, which is something that is surprising consider they now use an unbiased version of the formula that does not have conference-related bias.

As they state, they can only be as accurate as committees are consistent. My main usage for it has always been with their percentile rankings, as you can see exactly what percentage of past at-large teams have made it in with a team's given resume, which is based off of history and a way to compare past committees.
 
BigPack1517 said:
Saw where Dancecard has Wake as the 7th team out and at a 0.02% resume percentile.

Win against UL would spike your resume percentile significantly.
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Exactly! We need to first beat Louisville then we can start talking about the NCAA's just a little. Anything else right now is just getting hopes up. Hopefully at least 5 more bball games left before the committee goes to making a decision on us.
 
TUA01576 said:
What a fucking joke. A high octane offense with a potential lottery pick big man, a recognizable face at coach and a budding star at PG. What a load of shit.
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Really, we are anything but boring.
 
Wake would be a good team to pick in a "first team to score 90 wins" contest.
 
Would either of these teams be safely in (pre conference tourney records)

Team A: 20-10, RPI: 49, SOS: 41, KP: ~50, 1-25: 0-6; 1-50: 1-7; 1-100: 4-9; worst loss: #102(neutral site)

Team B: 22-9, RPI: 48, SOS: 73, KP: ~65, 1-25: 2-5, 1-50: 2-5, 1-100: 5-7; worst losses: @#131, #205
 
Intangibles that no formal can account for: Coach that seems universally liked as a person and former NPOY etc, and having a potential ACCPOY. How many at large bids were given out with those intangibles?

Maybe it doesn't matter, but I can't see Seth Greenberg with his yearly whining being a plus for VT for all those years. There has to be a tipping point.

All that being said beat 'ville and VT and and I think we play ourselves in.
 
Wake Forest [16-12 (7-9), RPI: 44, SOS: 24] Wake Forest has been off since last week's win over Pittsburgh, a well-timed weeklong break in advance of Wednesday's home game against Louisville. The Demon Deacons have had chances to knock off impressive competition before and during ACC play, but they've almost always come up just short; a win over Miami and some nice schedule numbers are all they have to show for center John Collins' brilliance thus far. Wednesday's game has the power to alter that narrative -- or reinforce it anew. We'll see.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
 
TheReff said:
Exactly! We need to first beat Louisville then we can start talking about the NCAA's just a little. Anything else right now is just getting hopes up. Hopefully at least 5 more bball games left before the committee goes to making a decision on us.
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Yeah ! We still need to fight to make the NIT !
 
RChildress107 said:
Would either of these teams be safely in (pre conference tourney records)

Team A: 20-10, RPI: 49, SOS: 41, KP: ~50, 1-25: 0-6; 1-50: 1-7; 1-100: 4-9; worst loss: #102(neutral site)

Team B: 22-9, RPI: 48, SOS: 73, KP: ~65, 1-25: 2-5, 1-50: 2-5, 1-100: 5-7; worst losses: @#131, #205
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They're both around the bubble I'd imagine. Team B obviously played a weak OOC schedule and plays in one of the weaker power conferences. Got good odds on who Team B is.

Also, if we had played Team B's schedule and lost every single game we played against top 50 competition we'd still be like 22-7 right now overall.
 
^Those are Cal and USC assuming both end the regular season 1-1. But USC is probably winning out and not picking up that loss to #205 to end the season.
 
Yeah Pac 12 remains a total joke. Their teams around the bubble have like five conference wins a piece against teams worse than BC.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Yeah Pac 12 remains a total joke. Their teams around the bubble have like five conference wins a piece against teams worse than BC.
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True, but any of those top three teams could legitimately make the Final Four. More top-heavy than the SEC.
 
I think the three teams are more likely to get upset by the sweet 16 than make the Final Four.

UCLA's defense just cracked the top 100 in KenPom, Arizona would only be a five point favorite over Wake on a neutral court, and Oregon isn't even in the top 15 in KenPom.

Meanwhile UF and UK are both top 10 in the country
 
Baylor's defense.

5bNts_.gif
 
thatguy2016 said:
^Those are Cal and USC assuming both end the regular season 1-1. But USC is probably winning out and not picking up that loss to #205 to end the season.
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Yup, USC has lost 4 or 5 straight, including a bad loss to ASU and has 3 games coming up against the dregs of the PAC 12, if they drop one of those, especially in the tournament I think their resume ends up a lot weaker than one would think.

Cal's resume is worse than ours in every way except overall record. If that remains the case and they make it over us I truly don't understand what criteria the committee is using.
 
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