RChildress107
Well-known member
If you would actually take the time to recall some of our "bubble" years under Odom instead of simply being a snarky dick, we were left out of the tourney despite being 4th in the ACC at least twice. Being on the "right side of the bubble" does not mean you'll get in. You can be a Top 50 team with a pretty respectable record and still miss the tourney. 2 or 3 out of every 5 years would be pretty good for a lot of teams. And considering we are a lot closer to 150th as opposed to 50th at the present time, I'd say that would be more than acceptable by Manning's 3rd year.
A 20 year stretch of success obviously isn't a predictor of future results. Success in CBB is more than a math problem. But over the last 50 years, we've been bad to mediocre more than we've been very good.
In the last 13 years, 44 teams ranked in Kenpom's top 40 have been left out of the tournament. Those teams all fell between 21-40. That's a little less than 3.5 a year. 20 of those teams were ranked between 35-40.
So teams ranked in the 21-40 range had about an 83% chance of making the tournament (so 5 out of 6 years). Even if we consistently found ourselves at what you suggest is an attainable baseline, rarely finishing higher than that baseline (our past history and common sense make that unlikely) we would still have a 74% chance of making the tournament each year. (3 out of 4)
This discussion isn't about where Manning is in his third year. It's about what's a realistic, attainable level of success for Wake Forest basketball.
a 20 year stretch of being a top 20 program does not serve as a predictor that we will necessarily get back to a top 20 level. It does serve as an indicator that getting back to being a top 20 program is certainly an attainable goal.
Your last statement applies to almost every program in the country, save maybe ten or so. Furthermore, what happened 50, 40 or even 30 years ago is clearly less relevant to assessing the future ceiling of the program than the last 20 years are.