• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

Decision Analysis: 4th and 1 at FSU 6, Down 11, 4 minutes Remaining

Hopefully everyone understands why all the coaches don't go for two down 14. Glad I was able to help.

Can't apply statistics to football any more than the transitive property.
 
deaconbd said:
Hopefully everyone understands why all the coaches don't go for two down 14. Glad I was able to help.

Can't apply statistics to football any more than the transitive property.
Click to expand...

I'm guessing you're a big proponent of bunting in baseball also
 
I think if you have a chance to double your chances of winning (even if it's just 2 to 4%) you should take it
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
I think if you have a chance to double your chances of winning (even if it's just 2 to 4%) you should take it
Click to expand...

The numbers says 2.2 % chance if you take the fg vs 2.1% if you go for the td.
You kick, Clawson kicked. And we had a chance to win.
 
Please don't come in here like the guy who started this thread who didn't appreciate Clawson giving us a great chance to win by making up crazy percentages and crazy modeling to suggest that we would have been twice as better off going for the TD than the FG when we were down by 11.
 
vicsdeacs2 said:
Since stats are being tossed about his about the stat that 90%+ of coaches would have done exactly what Clawson did in that circumstance - NFL, College for sure HS and Pop Warner being the outliers. There were five issues associated with going for it and then setting up for the FG later with any of them ending the game. Getting a first down, getting a TD, being successful with the 2pt conversion, stopping FSU, and getting into FG range. Any of the first three not happening would end the game before getting to the last two.

Taking the FG first reversed the order - stop FSU, get a TD (where first downs are now almost a moot point) and making the 2 pt conversion. Allows you to stay in the game longer.

Yes, option one provides an opportunity to win in regulation (which coupled with the added opportunity of OT accounts for the increased win percentage) while option two guarantees the only way to win is in OT accounting for the reduced win percentage chance. However, it also provides more opportunity for the game to be over before getting a chance at a second score.
Click to expand...

Who cares if 90+% of coaches would have done the same thing? That doesn't make any difference at all when considering the optimal percentage move. Almost every coach punts on 4th down despite overwhelming statistics indicating it's the wrong move most of the time.

People always think staying in the game longer is a good thing---it's not. Making the statistically optimal play at the right point in time to maximize the odds of winning is a good thing, even if that eliminates your chances to win sooner than most coaches would do so.
 
Clawson could have taken the safety but didn't and I encourage others not to assign ridiculous outcome percentages to pretend we would have been twice as well off taken the safety than kicking the ball. Coach made right decision two weeks in a row.
 
Bump.

The Atlanta Falcons, down 4 points, 2:56 on the clock, kicked a Field Goal on 4th and 1 from the San Francisco 1 yesterday.

They lost 17-16.
 
HailToTheDeacons said:
Bump.

The Atlanta Falcons, down 4 points, 2:56 on the clock, kicked a Field Goal on 4th and 1 from the San Francisco 1 yesterday.

They lost 17-16.
Click to expand...

Amazing that Dan Quinn would put more faith in his defense than in his offense to make a play, even if you are staring at Blaine Gabbert on the other side of the field.
 
Just an egregious error.

In addition to the obvious, it is also really nice to get put your defense on the field at the 1 yard line if you miss. In that scenario the 49ers would likely do some like QB sneaks/FB dives to get some room and are much less likely run anything creative/interesting. Much easier to get a 3 and out there than on a set of downs from the 20.
 
FckVwls said:
Just an egregious error.

In addition to the obvious, it is also really nice to get put your defense on the field at the 1 yard line if you miss. In that scenario the 49ers would likely do some like QB sneaks/FB dives to get some room and are much less likely run anything creative/interesting. Much easier to get a 3 and out there than on a set of downs from the 20.
Click to expand...

Not to mention the idiotic spot challenge Quinn decided to use earlier in the 4th quarter. This uselessly consumed a time out which was that much more valuable when he chose to give up possession of the ball without the lead and less than 4 minutes remaining. #Math
 
FWIW, former player Mike Golic said on ESPN this morning he agreed completely with that strategy. Can't say I do.
 
Yeah you can say "I would have kicked too" all you want but it's objectively the wrong decision. Typical Falcons though - not too surprising.
 
Just hope this moment doesn't turn him into Daring Dan or something like that.
 
The models run from 25%-40% less of a chance to win when they kicked the FG.

This is a perfect example of coaches being so conservative that it's aggressively the wrong decision.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top