Oh, okay. Now I understand. We wold have been a lot better off throwing the game ending interception with 2:30 left.
the only thing that would actually upset / concern me about clawson is if he agreed with you about playing for overtime.
Do you know how to read?
Well, not exactly. We would have likely lost anyways.
I am saying that kicking a FG cut our chances of winning the game roughly in half.
My comments to those extremely worried about the clock would be twofold:
1. If time is a such huge problem, just throw the ball on 4th and 1 and all the subsequent plays. Throw into the endzone on 4th and 1 even. This has to be successful very infrequently to be a good idea (well less than half as often as you'd make a 2 pt conversion from 3 yard line)
2. Kicking a FG to go down 8 is a horrible result of the drive. It cripples much chance of winning the game. It is a bad coaching error to be forced to kick a FG there because of time reasons on a drive starting with 10 min left. That FG drive took over 6 minutes.
I would have preferred to go a bit faster earlier, but I personally think there was enough time to score a TD, get the ball back, then try for another score given we had all 3 timeouts.
These old donks not understanding statistics is the best case for #nosat I've seen. Look what the SAT got us!
Oh, okay. Now I understand. We wold have been a lot better off throwing the game ending interception with 2:30 left.
actually, yes? throwing a pick there gives us a lot more time to recover than throwing it as time expires, obviously
if we're going to throw a pick in the end zone either way, I'd rather do it at a point in the game where we'll still have a win percentage > 0, however miniscule that ends up being
So we're better off down 11 with 2:30 on the clock and FSU with the ball than down 8 with 2:30 on the clock and FSU with the ball.
These old donks not understanding statistics is the best case for #nosat I've seen. Look what the SAT got us!
Where are the stats? This appears to be an assumption based argument and those assumptions do not seem to have a particularly sound statistical basis.
Anyone is welcome to fill out this form:
WF FG Make Percentage (22 yards): ______________
4th and 1 Conversion Percentage: ____________
1st and Goal TD Conversion Percentage (from 3 yard line, using some preference to passing plays to save time): ______________
2 Point Conversion Percentage: _______________
Get 3 and out on Defense after kicking off Percentage: _____________
Drive for a TD 70 yards, 2:00 left 2 timeouts: ___________
Drive for TD 70 yards, 1:30 left 1 timeout: _____________
Drive for FG from own 30, 2:00 left 2 timeouts: ____________
Drive for FG from own 30, 1:30 left 1 timeout: _____________
Overtime win Percentage against FSU: _____________
Please just fill in the blanks and I will crunch the math for anyone.
Anyone is welcome to fill out this form:
WF FG Make Percentage (22 yards): ______________
4th and 1 Conversion Percentage: ____________
1st and Goal TD Conversion Percentage (from 3 yard line, using some preference to passing plays to save time): ______________
2 Point Conversion Percentage: _______________
Get 3 and out on Defense after kicking off Percentage: _____________
Drive for a TD 70 yards, 2:00 left 2 timeouts: ___________
Drive for TD 70 yards, 1:30 left 1 timeout: _____________
Drive for FG from own 30, 2:00 left 2 timeouts: ____________
Drive for FG from own 30, 1:30 left 1 timeout: _____________
Overtime win Percentage against FSU: _____________
Please just fill in the blanks and I will crunch the math for anyone.
Anyone is welcome to fill out this form:
WF FG Make Percentage (22 yards): ______________
4th and 1 Conversion Percentage: ____________
1st and Goal TD Conversion Percentage (from 3 yard line, using some preference to passing plays to save time): ______________
2 Point Conversion Percentage: _______________
Get 3 and out on Defense after kicking off Percentage: _____________
Drive for a TD 70 yards, 2:00 left 2 timeouts: ___________
Drive for TD 70 yards, 1:30 left 1 timeout: _____________
Drive for FG from own 30, 2:00 left 2 timeouts: ____________
Drive for FG from own 30, 1:30 left 1 timeout: _____________
Overtime win Percentage against FSU: _____________
Please just fill in the blanks and I will crunch the math for anyone.
Anyone is welcome to fill out this form:
WF FG Make Percentage (22 yards): ______________
4th and 1 Conversion Percentage: ____________
1st and Goal TD Conversion Percentage (from 3 yard line, using some preference to passing plays to save time): ______________
2 Point Conversion Percentage: _______________
Whatever odds you attach from scoring at 4th and 1 from the 5, it is going to dwarf the odds of scoring a TD driving the length of the field comparatively.