Then just fill out the form with blanks I posted a few pages back. It will take you 2 minutes. It isn't very useful to just lob in opinions that the inputs are bad without offering your own set.
Option 1 - Kick FG
To win game need 5 consecutive events to all occur (estimated percentage):
1. Make FG (97%) - Weaver is a good kicker
2. Stop Florida State within reasonable time to get ball back (70%) - FSU offense struggling, will likely call vanilla plays to run clock
3. Drive the Field to Score TD after getting ball back (20%) - 1/5 seems about right in a 2 minute drill situation
4. Make 2 point conversion (45%) - Probably a bit less likely than national average with our offense against FSU defense
5. Win in Overtime (40%) - Even with a momentum have to be an underdog in OT in a game where you are 20 point dogs
Total Win Percentage = 2.44 percent
Option 2 - Go for Touchdown
1. Go for 4th and 1 at 6 yard line (45% make first down, 15% score touchdown, 40% miss/game over) - I think 60% make rate is about right in that scenario.
1a. - If First down made, Odds TD is scored next four plays (70% TD, 30% turn ball over on next set of downs)
Total TD make on drive = 15% + (45% * 70%) = 46%
1b. Go for 2 point conversion (45%) - Same as above
Total after first drive = 53.5% Game Over, 25.575% down 5, 20.925% down 3
Down 5:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (35%) - I'll go lower than FG scenario due to less time on clock some of the time post score
3. Drive and score TD to win (10%) - lower than 20% above given possibly less time
Down 3:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (15% - FSU only ahead by 3 would resort to passing, end around, trick play or whatever it takes to prevent Wake from getting ball back with a chance to tie with a FG)
3. Drive and score TD to win (5% -FSU would have done whatever it took to get some first downs and run some clock before giving us the ball back), Drive and score FG to tie (15%), Drive Fails (80%)
4. If Overtime, win percentage (40%) - Same earlier
Total win % = (25.575% * 35% * 10%) PLUS (20.925 * 15% * 5%) PLUS (20.925 * 15% * 40%)
= Total Win Percentage = 2.31%