Education Bubble

[RaleighDeacon]

I know there is a lot of talk on these boards about the escalation of costs at Wake. How many of you think we are truly on the edge of an education bubble that will soon pop, and what happens when it does? How many of you think that there is no education and that the rate of return on a college degree is strong and/or rising?

This is for no purpose other than discussion. I am just curious as I just don't see the current model as sustainable, and I fear a huge bust would force a lot of schools to offer steep discounts or maybe even fold. Thoughts?

Poll coming.

 

[AnonymousDeac]

Marc Andreessen in 2011 claimed that education was up next for "fundamental software-based transformation."

Software has eaten other industries. I don't think higher education is immune.

 

[Kory]

Less of a bubble; more of a coming transformation.

 

[bigdoublezero]

Just wrapping up an extremely positive experience learning the basics of software development at City College of San Francisco. Quality of the education was awesome, lots of online classes, cost roughly $150 per class per semester. Contrasting that with my experience at Wake and the tuition costs there has been an eye-opener to say the least.

 

[smallbigtall]

Definitely an interesting topic. I'm of the opinion that it's not so much an "education" bubble as it will be a "student loan" bubble, which will in turn affect higher ed. Growing administrative costs, ever-increasing tuition, watered-down academics, increasing competition with online courses, and the increase in college graduates waiting tables and working retail (for example) have certainly lowered the ROI for those taking out student loans.

With all of that, I fear at some point, though probably not in the next 5-10 years, graduates won't be able to make their student loan payments and would then go into default. Since the government so heavily backs student loans, I think it has the potential to affect us all, but to what degree I'm not entirely certain.

That said, it certainly will affect some schools more than others; there will be enough people willing to take out loans for a top-25 education (whose institutions I suspect already have decent endowments) than for your run-of-the-mill public university. Much of the impact of any bubble bursting I suspect would need to occur at the public and small endowment private universities.

 

[PhDeac]

Universities aren't going to get hit hard because they're not lending and still offer a product deemed necessary for individuals to be competitive in today's economy.

 

[Liquid Karma]

Just wrapping up an extremely positive experience learning the basics of software development at City College of San Francisco. Quality of the education was awesome, lots of online classes, cost roughly $150 per class per semester. Contrasting that with my experience at Wake and the tuition costs there has been an eye-opener to say the least.

As someone who has made a career out of software development, I've long thought programming is more of a trade that should be learned at the community college level (akin to auto repair) and not at a major university where it costs 6 figures for an education.

 

[bigdoublezero]

As someone who has made a career out of software development, I've long thought programming is more of a trade that should be learned at the community college level (akin to auto repair) and not at a major university where it costs 6 figures for an education.

At this point I'm honestly stunned that it's not integrated into a basic high school curriculum. It's such a bridge for so many fields and isn't that hard to learn.

 

[PhDeac]

At this point I'm honestly stunned that it's not integrated into a basic high school curriculum. It's such a bridge for so many fields and isn't that hard to learn.

Actually, it should be taught in elementary school. My 21 month old can use a Kindle effectively. Why not teach him basic programming in kindergarten. Education should be about giving children the tools to do what they want to do to earn a living, not to give them a "common core" to be someone else's employee.

 

[bigdoublezero]

Maybe laying the groundwork for CS at the elementary level would be more effective. There are some concepts in math, etc., that would probably be hard to expect a fourth-grader to master quickly.

 

[PhDeac]

Maybe laying the groundwork for CS at the elementary level would be more effective. There are some concepts in math, etc., that would probably be hard to expect a fourth-grader to master quickly.

Sure. The basics could start with more point and click work and move into text and math as they get older. I'm not talking about full on CS courses, but getting the ground work started for further engagement. Honestly, it's something everybody should know in 2027 when next year's kindergartens graduate from high school.

 

[TownieDeac]

I was programming games and algebra/geometry formula programs on my TI-83 in 7th grade in what is essentially Visual BASIC.

Feel like kids these days could absolutely handle it. Aren't there cost concerns, though?

 

[Demon09]

I was programming games and algebra/geometry formula programs on my TI-83 in 7th grade in what is essentially Visual BASIC.

Feel like kids these days could absolutely handle it. Aren't there cost concerns, though?

It's rare that you see the kind bragging where the achievement reveals one's dating scene was a barren wasteland.

 

[bigdoublezero]

I was programming games and algebra/geometry formula programs on my TI-83 in 7th grade in what is essentially Visual BASIC.

Feel like kids these days could absolutely handle it. Aren't there cost concerns, though?

Most schools have a ton of computers sitting around doing not a hell of a lot, and it doesn't take a whole lotta tech to get some simple stuff going on a UNIX terminal.

I think the key for making it take off would be to integrate the basics into math classes at a young age so that things like variables and functions and the nature of integers become second nature. Integration of the skills throughout normal public education offerings would be the best option IMO. Then in middle/high school you have kids write some actual code, which in turn could be used in other classes. Learn the basics of punctuation and grammar via regex and stuff. I dunno. Logic, recursion, etc., in programming are about as liberal arts/pro humanitate as you can get.

 

[lbE08]

Sure. The basics could start with more point and click work and move into text and math as they get older. I'm not talking about full on CS courses, but getting the ground work started for further engagement. Honestly, it's something everybody should know in 2027 when next year's kindergartens graduate from high school.

this just blew my mind.

I totally agree, though - even now as someone who still checks out entry-level positions in other fields, I feel behind because i have absolutely zero programming/CS knowledge. That kids are still graduating with none of this is beyond me. The curriculum needs to be adjusted, and should include more 'life' items - basic budgeting/statistics/personal economics (so people aren't screwed with credit for lack of understanding), and computer programming/web design. Those are way more beneficial than calculus for 95% of high school students.

 

[DistrictDeacon]

Universities aren't going to get hit hard because they're not lending and still offer a product deemed necessary for individuals to be competitive in today's economy.

Sure they will. Lower availability of money, either through rising interest rates, or caps on loan amounts, will reduce the amount people are able to pay for a degree. When the government finally wakes up and realizes that lending an unlimited amount of money to any student with a pulse is a bad idea, universities will certainly feel the results.

 

[PhDeac]

Sure they will. Lower availability of money, either through rising interest rates, or caps on loan amounts, will reduce the amount people are able to pay for a degree. When the government finally wakes up and realizes that lending an unlimited amount of money to any student with a pulse is a bad idea, universities will certainly feel the results.

And I'm saying that "when" won't happen. There is too much pressure to keep lending as is whether it be the American ideal of getting a college education or that for-profits are in bed with Republicans. Not to mention the government has set it up so that college loans pay out well and they're not nearly as easy to get out of as home loans. Ph walked away from a mortgage, but no way could I walk away from college loans.

The downside to college loans is felt primarily by 18-29 year olds, the group who has the lowest political participation but the most to gain by some dramatic reassessment of how we do higher education. All the other groups have a lot to lose.

 

[Stan Gable]

Govt sponsored education:

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014...dent-debt-forgiveness-programs-soars-in-2014/

 

[PhDeac]

The Brookings Institution, a centrist think tank in Washington, said in a report earlier this month the most popular income-based repayment plan could eventually cost taxpayers $14 billion a year.

$14 billion could pay for just straight up free education for a lot of people.

 

[TownieDeac]

People would balk at a number like that in a vacuum or without a context or whatever but it's really not very much money. The current discretionary budget is over $70B.