Deacsfan27
Well-known member
Since both are the presumptive nominees/nominees (however you want to phrase it), we can probably consolidate the Trump/Clinton talk into one thread moving forward.
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I'll kick in a speculative topic: what is the margin that Hillary wins women and Hispanics?
Obama won women 55-44% in 2012 (women were 53% of the voting public). He won Hispanics 71%-27% (they were 10%). In 2008, women were 56%-43% for Obama, despite a woman being on the GOP ticket (also 53% of the voters), while Hispanics were 67%-31% (9% of voters).
Women will stay at the 52-53% range and I'm thinking Hillary will take at least 58% of them. Hispanics, on the other hand, look to be hard to predict based on polling in CA and other states with a large Hispanic pop. That said, given Trump's rhetoric, you may see the voting percentage jump to 12% and Hillary's take to at least 75%.
Those two numbers alone will win her the election, even if Trump gains on Romney's percentage with men (52%).
At this point the question for me is not whether Hillary will win, it's whether or not the House goes Democrat.
I think the Renee Ellmers race last night is the start of what you are going to see for Republicans who align themselves too closely with Trump. Of course in some states that is what the voters want, but I'm guessing there could be a lot of unexpected causalities.
Serious question if you had to choose amongst the three for president, would you go with Clinton, Trump, or [name redacted]? Would [name redacted] win, as ridiculous as that sounds? We need a poll for this.
At this point the question for me is not whether Hillary will win, it's whether or not the House goes Democrat.