I've had 45 as a decent over/under for percent of the vote for Trump. Past couple of weeks has Trump failing to crack 40 in nine of the last ten polls aggregated on RCP (average of 36.5 and down by over 7 percent to Clinton). What do you guys think is a good over/under for Trump's share of the popular vote?
Also, may start posting the 538 odds on here on a somewhat regular basis:
Now-cast
(odds to win if election were today): Hillary (96.4%)
Polls Only (current polling plus trends towards election day): Hillary (87.5%)
Polls-Plus (best model, polling plus trends plus demographics): Hillary (79.5%)
All three of these are the best odds Hillary has had all election cycle.
Projected popular vote from polls-plus: Clinton 49.0%-44.4% Trump (Johnson 5.3%)
Electoral College projection from polls-plus: Clinton 324.4-213.5 Trump
Hillary currently favored to win every swing state. 34% chance to win Georgia and even a 21% to win South Carolina (!!!).[/QUOTE]
Not so fast! Gary Johnson might win this thing![/QUOTE]
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