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Hypothetical Seed Discussion (#8/#9 vs. #10 seed) (NWT)

We need a lose by Indiana to Michigan. Indiana is a bubble team and they win it could hurt our chances... This sucks... How the hell did we look so bad today? Regardless we got help by Xavier losing and now we need a big L from Indiana!!!!
 
BC played great today and we played like shit. They won as a result. If we play well, we can hang with a lot of teams in the field. I’m not counting us out yet.
 
 
daaberry said:
On Wake BB’s Instagram, Jay Bills commented: NCAA team. Zero question. Wake is IN.
Hope he’s right, but surprised he has that confidence level after sitting court side for today’s debacle.
Click to expand...

He hasn't lost perspective wallowing in minutiae. Wake Forest finished the regular season with a record of 23-9 overall and 13-7 in the ACC. At the beginning of the day only 40 teams had a better record in the entire NCAA. I doubt there will be more than that Sunday morning. Sagarin says we're #41. BPI says #34, SOR says #36. Kenpom says #37. Torvik says #35.

Today's loss was disappointing and frustrating. It certainly didn't help. It is just one game. The body of work for the entire season as rated by most analysts suggests we have earned an invitation taking strength of schedule into consideration.
 
I agree they should get in and if they do, hopefully they find their spark and play to their potential. UCLA had a four game losing streak heading into Dayton last year. It is about getting hot at the right time.
 
WF vs. Xavier

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68 teams. Around 20 are not top 50 by metrics. Is Wake one of the best 48 teams per the metrics used by the committee? I think Wake is in the last 10 of that group by metrics. Thus should get a bid.
 
lunardi updated his projections late last night, now has us playing xavier in dayton.
 
The other teams in Lunardi's Dayton projection are:
Wyoming - plays UNLV in MWC 4/5 game in Vegas Thursday
Xavier - season over
SMU - #2 seed in AAC; will play Wichita State-Tulsa winner Friday

His next 5 (first 5 out and in his opinion, most likely to steal from us) are:
Indiana - plays Michigan in B1G 8/9, Thursday
Dayton - plays GW/UMass Friday, A10
BYU - season over
UVA - plays UNC today
VT - plays ND today

Lunardi's last 4 byes (ahead of us) are:
Michigan - plays IU in B1G 8/9, Thursday
Rutgers - B1G double bye and will likely play Iowa Friday
Notre Dame - Plays VT today
Creighton - plays Marquette today at 2:30
 
thatguy2016 said:
The other teams in Lunardi's Dayton projection are:
Wyoming - plays UNLV in MWC 4/5 game in Vegas Thursday
Xavier - season over
SMU - #2 seed in AAC; will play Wichita State-Tulsa winner Friday

His next 5 (first 5 out and in his opinion, most likely to steal from us) are:
Indiana - plays Michigan in B1G 8/9, Thursday
Dayton - plays GW/UMass Friday, A10
BYU - season over
UVA - plays UNC today
VT - plays ND today

Lunardi's last 4 byes (ahead of us) are:
Michigan - plays IU in B1G 8/9, Thursday
Rutgers - B1G double bye and will likely play Iowa Friday
Notre Dame - Plays VT today
Creighton - plays Marquette today at 2:30
Click to expand...

Yesterday you said we were out, period, and seem to have a good read on these things. What is your confidence level now if you had to give it a % - assuming no major steals from those teams? IOW do you think lunardi is correct that we’re at least a play-in if better teams hold serve in their tourneys?
 
DeacDaddy said:
Yesterday you said we were out, period, and seem to have a good read on these things. What is your confidence level now if you had to give it a % - assuming no major steals from those teams? IOW do you think lunardi is correct that we’re at least a play-in if better teams hold serve in their tourneys?
Click to expand...

we have three major issues

1. an almost incomprehensively awful non-con strength of schedule. Previous committees have made examples of teams with similar non-con resumes.
2. we don't have any great wins. The teams around us (Xavier, Notre Dame, Miami, Michigan, Indiana, Creighton) have way better wins than us. Wyoming (!) is 4-4 against Quad 1. (one of those is a road win against Utah State, and I would take UVA over Utah St on a neutral floor 10/10 times, but...)
3. our last impression is an awful loss against a bad team on a neutral floor, in a game we knew we had to win.

on some level, it doesn't matter a whole lot what other teams do. (a Virginia school winning the ACC would be very not good). Either the committee can look past those flaws or they see an easy, defensible reason to keep us out.

gun to head, I'd give probabilities something like

1. In and better than Dayton 1%
2. In Dayton 30%
3. NIT 69% (nice!)
 
thatguy2016 said:
we have three major issues

1. an almost incomprehensively awful non-con strength of schedule. Previous committees have made examples of teams with similar non-con resumes.
2. we don't have any great wins. The teams around us (Xavier, Notre Dame, Miami, Michigan, Indiana, Creighton) have way better wins than us. Wyoming (!) is 4-4 against Quad 1. (one of those is a road win against Utah State, and I would take UVA over Utah St on a neutral floor 10/10 times, but...)
3. our last impression is an awful loss against a bad team on a neutral floor, in a game we knew we had to win.

on some level, it doesn't matter a whole lot what other teams do. (a Virginia school winning the ACC would be very not good). Either the committee can look past those flaws or they see an easy, defensible reason to keep us out.

gun to head, I'd give probabilities something like

1. In and better than Dayton 1%
2. In Dayton 30%
3. NIT 69% (nice!)
Click to expand...

I would give us a little better chance of in playing in Dayton 35% right now. If some of these other bubble teams win a game or two it's going to be tough though. Fortunately Xavier choked yesterday. We need Va Tech to go ahead and lose today along with Indiana. If they win it's going to be really tough. Agreed with your other points. The strength of schedule non-conference is brutal.
 
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