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jaybone, "next year you can pencil in 20 wins"

I was being particularly bombastic that day. On my phone so did not click the link to see when I wrote that but tony finished up the season so badly I do now think that cmm is the starter game 1. Will be interesting to see how tony handles because from watching his body language I think he thinks he's an acc starting point guard

As I said later in my betting thread I can't really imagine taking any bets next year for all of the reasons everyone listed. I took advantage of folks dispondency really. That sounds terrible when I type it haha but true. But I think those folks were bombastically despondent

Anyway I doubt we hit 20 wins. Depends on our schedule obviously but next year is very hard to bead as success will be dependent on at least three of the frosh stepping up maybe four. Last year 12 wins was dependent on mckie and Harris stepping up, known acc quantities
 
I think bzd's survival will be based on how well we play against good teams. We need about 15-20 halves like the 2nd half against duke. And we need a few wins against 3-10 in the acc

If we have a year like this one - beating teams that mostly suck even if it gets us to 17 wins I don't think it saves bzd's job. He's got to win over 10-20% of his detractors and have the fanbase fall in love with the talent
 
I don't know what the bet will be, but you can be damn certain jaybone will be giving me a chance to win back my bottle of whiskey next year!

:beer:
 
jaybone said:
I was being particularly bombastic that day. On my phone so did not click the link to see when I wrote that but tony finished up the season so badly I do now think that cmm is the starter game 1. Will be interesting to see how tony handles because from watching his body language I think he thinks he's an acc starting point guard

As I said later in my betting thread I can't really imagine taking any bets next year for all of the reasons everyone listed. I took advantage of folks dispondency really. That sounds terrible when I type it haha but true. But I think those folks were bombastically despondent

Anyway I doubt we hit 20 wins. Depends on our schedule obviously but next year is very hard to bead as success will be dependent on at least three of the frosh stepping up maybe four. Last year 12 wins was dependent on mckie and Harris stepping up, known acc quantities
Click to expand...


Bold prediction.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
People on the boards continue to underrate the ACC, underestimate how long it takes to get back to respectability when you're a terrible team, and shockingly enough STILL don't believe that Wake is as bad as we really are. Wake would require a massive improvement job simply to be in a discussion for a bubble spot in the NIT.

Wake has no prayer at 20 wins next year unless the non-con SOS is bottom 30 in the nation.
Click to expand...

Absolutely. The gap between us and an NIT-caliber team is far greater than the gap between an NIT-caliber team and an NCAA one. Think about two ACC teams that did not even make the NIT this year: Clemson and Maryland. Clemson came into the Joel and absolutely skullfucked us, while Maryland let us hang around for a half before unloading on us for the second time this year. Wake did not belong on the court with either team. Oh, and NC State--arguably the last at-large team to make the field of 68--could name the score against us anytime they like.

To go from where we are now to an NIT team is a massive, massive leap.
 
KidA23 said:
Absolutely. The gap between us and an NIT-caliber team is far greater than the gap between an NIT-caliber team and an NCAA one. Think about two ACC teams that did not even make the NIT this year: Clemson and Maryland. Clemson came into the Joel and absolutely skullfucked us, while Maryland let us hang around for a half before unloading on us for the second time this year. Wake did not belong on the court with either team. Oh, and NC State--arguably the last at-large team to make the field of 68--could name the score against us anytime they like.

To go from where we are now to an NIT team is a massive, massive leap.
Click to expand...

WF vs. the NCAA field

Wins
Loyola, MD 75-63

Losses
Duke 79-71
@NCSU 87-76
UNC 68-53
@Duke 91-73
NCSU 76-40


WF vs. the NIT field

Wins
none

Losses
Dayton 80-76
@Seton Hall 68-54
@Miami 74-56


Kind of drives home how pathetic our schedule was this year.
 
Our non-conference strength of schedule this year was 254.

I didn't realize we slipped all the way to 203 in Kenpom. We finished last year at 251, thankfully BC took that off the record books at 254.
 
HeavyPetter said:
Yeah, no kidding about that cushion. What kind of odds do you get on the sun coming up in the east each morning?
Click to expand...

I don't make seasonal bets unless it is on a team to win a championship, the conference title, etc.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
People on the boards continue to underrate the ACC, underestimate how long it takes to get back to respectability when you're a terrible team, and shockingly enough STILL don't believe that Wake is as bad as we really are. Wake would require a massive improvement job simply to be in a discussion for a bubble spot in the NIT.

Wake has no prayer at 20 wins next year unless the non-con SOS is bottom 30 in the nation.
Click to expand...

We had two very good players. If you a solid rebounder and another scorer, we would have won several more games this year.

We are also getting more quality depth and defense.
 
We are relying on a 6'8" PF 3 star outside of the top 100 recruit to transform one of the worst post games in ACC history into a good post game in a system where he will probably be setting screens out around the 3 point line.
 
No we aren't doing that. We are expecting him to get some rebounds and play some interior D. If we are expecting to be a star, we would say, he's going to lift to us 22 wins.

Having a solid inside player would have helped us win 3-5 games this year. He doesn't have to be a star just a presence.

Plus we'ere adding at least one more scoring threat in Codi who will allow CJ and Travis not to have to carry everything.

I realize you and your brethern want to put down our players to achieve your goals.

The reality is with only modest additions to this year's returnees, we should be able to flip our record from 13-18 to 18-13 without much problem. We don't need expect more than the players' ratings to do this.

To get to twenty or more, we need one or two of the incoming frosh to be pretty good. If Devin or Codi is a star and the other is just solid, we could legitimately to twenty wins.
 
To get to 20 wins, we need to have two very good freshmen, like first team all freshman.

I'll say it right now: Wake has no chance in hell to make 20 wins unless the freshman class is one of the top 10 in the nation next year. Wake will probably slightly improve again, finish around 8th in the conference, win 16 games or so and still finish worse than 100 in KenPom with no shot at the NIT. If we finish in the top 100 in the country I'd be very very impressed.
 
No you aren't. with a decent rebounder and some more bodies would could have been 18-13 this year. to not see this is being willfully blind.
 
If my aunt had balls she would be my uncle. To not see this is to be envious of Stevie Wonder's eyesight!!
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
To get to 20 wins, we need to have two very good freshmen, like first team all freshman.

I'll say it right now: Wake has no chance in hell to make 20 wins unless the freshman class is one of the top 10 in the nation next year. Wake will probably slightly improve again, finish around 8th in the conference, win 16 games or so and still finish worse than 100 in KenPom with no shot at the NIT. If we finish in the top 100 in the country I'd be very very impressed.
Click to expand...

Numbers if the frosh were modestly decent we would have beaten Wofford, Dayton and Maryland (1st time). With a little more talent we would have beaten Richmond and GT.

I'm not saying stars, just reasonable talent playing to their ratings.

That's 18-13 and a possible NIT bid.

If they play to their ratings and one is a star (not Top 10 in the country) twenty wins is a possibility.
 
20 Ws is actually possible, though incredibly highly unlikely. I figure we have 18 league games, 1 Big-10 opponent and that leaves us with about 13-14 other opponents. Glancing at this year's RPI, we could just schedule the bottom 14 teams [Binghamton, SC St, Grambling, Ala A&M, Bryant, UMBC, No Ill, No Arz, Chicago St, UC Davis, Alcorn, Omaha, Longwood & Kennesaw St]. Or better yet, do an analysis of what those teams have coming in, along with an analysis of the 20 or so teams above them in the RPI. Then project the worst 14 teams and schedule those. And try to schedule them in a Dickesque manner - make them all home or neutral site games. And hopefully we get Nebraska again. Then ask the ACC not to schedule us against Syracuse or Pitt yet because they're too good. Even if the ACC refuses our request, we should be able to win 13-14 of those OOC games and win 6-7 ACC games. GT & BC will still blow chunks, VT won't be good, and UVA loses half of their scoring production. It can happen people!
 
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