There is such a difference between a late 1st rd pick and a 2nd rd pick when it comes to salary. A good example to use is Malik Beasley. Roughly speaking, he had a frosh campaign at FSU that is similar to Hoard. He definitely COULD have stayed another year at FSU, but chose to leave after one year. To be honest, I can't even remember his game at FSU. But, he did get drafted w the 19th pick on his potential despite a stress fracture in his foot. It has taken him 3 years to figure out the NBA, get stronger, improve his game, and he has had to do it with long stretches in the D league (Sioux Falls) - BUT - and this is a big BUT, he got to do it while earning $1.7 million plus per year. Now, he has one more year on his rookie contract and if he stays healthy and productive, he is going to get PAID year after next.
If Beaseey had been a 2nd round pick, he would have been doing all this the last 2 or 3 years while making significantly less with much less guaranteed money. He probably would have been cut as he had almost no impact on the Nuggets. Admittedly, the 2nd round contract structure has changed even since 2016 when Beasley came out and there is a lot more money and guaranteed money in a lot of these contracts, but my guess on Hoard is that he is going to get three or four things to work on from the draft camp: his handles, his outside shooting, decision making, and one other. Honestly, if he significantly improves just one of those, I think he moves into the late 1st round next year.
It is easy to say, if he has confidence in his game, then he should ... honestly, I am sure he has confidence in his game and that doesn't dictate his decision one way or the other. He could have confidence in his game and decide to go this year, get drafted in the 2nd round, and grind it out for two or three years to make it into an NBA rotation, or he could come back to improve his draft stock - it becomes a strategy of what you want the next few years to look like. Are you willing to defer for a year some quality guaranteed money ($600,000?) in the desire to fulfill a dream (NBA lottery) and the chance at way more guaranteed money from the start? Not sure what I would do in his situation. It would help if I knew there was a staff behind me that could def help me improve. One of the things we DO have is a great strength and conditioning program and unfortunately, I don't expect that will be part of the message that Hoard gets from draft camp. Sure, he could get stronger, but that's not really a weakness.