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KP Eval of the Syrcuse Orange (Cuse or SU) - Sunday (2/11) 1 pm ACC Network

Pilchard

Pilchard

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Updated for Sunday's rematch (WF won game #1 73-67 at the Joel on January 3 - BC led all WF scorers with 19; Terrence Thompson had 13 and 7 boards - his high game for WF):

2017-8 Schedule: KP rates 16-8 (5-6) Cuse #46. Top 100 wins: #30 MD by 2, G'town in OT, #40 VT by 12. Losses: #6 Kansas by 16; #55 St. Bonnie by 3 in OT; #86 BC by 18; #34 L'ville by 5. Cuse is 5-6 in the ACC, but two of those wins are over #208 Pitt.

Offense: Among AC teams, Cuse has the #12 offense (WF is #13). The Orange also are adept at drawing fouls -- #2 in the ACC in FT attempts per FGA; they can also make FTs (78% #2 in ACC games). Otherwise, the Orange offense sucks. Their effective FG% is #12 (47%). They are 12th in ACC in 2 PT% (45%) and 3 PT% (34%). Only 27% of their offense comes from 3s (#14), but 24% of their offense comes from shooting FTs (#1 in the ACC). They play at a slow tempo

Defense: Cuse wins games on their "long" zone defense. The Orange is #2 in the ACC overall on defense (WF is #11), and they are strong across all defensive categories against ACC opponents: #1 in blocked shot%, #1 in 2 PT FG% defense, #2in effective FG%, #3 in 3 point defense (33%).

Roster: Cuse is huge. Their are #1 in the country in average height. They start 6-5 (Frank Howard), 6-6 (Tyus Battle), 6-8 (Oshae Brissett). 6-9 (Marek Dolezaj), 7-2 (Paschal Chukwu), with 6-8 coming off the bench. Cuse has almost no bench. In Sunday's win over L'ville, SU played only 6 (with one other player getting a minute). 2 starters played 40 minutes, and two more played 38 and 36 minutes. If Cuse gets in foul trouble, they don't have options. Cuse leading scorer is 6-6 2 guard Tyus Battle; he is a volume shooter with erratic results (he had 25 points -- 11 for 11 from the line against L'vile); Chukwu is an elite shot blocker (#11 in the nation in block percentage, but is not an offensive threat); Brissett is talented frosh (scored 16 against L'ville); Frosh Marek Dolezaj has improved during the season and his minutes have spiked (38-35-38 in his last 3 games).

This will be hard to believe, but WF may be favored or no more than a 1 or 2 point dog in its last 5 ACC games after Sunday's game against Cuse.

Bottom Line: KP projects a 7 point (70-63) win for the Orange. Game will be ugly. SU plays at a very slow pace #339, has trouble scoring, but is elite at defending. Tough to score inside against the Cuse zone. WF will need to hit their outside shots, and get the ball into the middle of the Cuse zone. Very likely this game will be close and WF will fall apart in the last 5 minutes.
 
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Chukwu is awful. I hope Doral can own him. Brisset has been way better than expected. Without him, they'd be in a world of hurt. They can play the starters longer because of the BS zone. Winnable game for sure if we play against the zone smartly. It's what dooms all teams. The GTown game exposed Ewing as a less experienced coach than Boeheim. Gtown had figured out the zone and were winning all game. In the last couple minutes, Boeheim switched to this zone press and GTown had no response. It was a horrible coaching job by Ewing.
 
Kinda need to win the next 3 to make the season even borderline interesting. We go on a pretty absurd 8 game run after that. 6 of 8 are ranked teams, the other 2 are State and Louisville - both on the road.

Then we finish with 6 winnable games... Wonder if we can somehow find 4 wins between now and Miami.

As for Syracuse, this is a decent matchup for us. We have two 7 footers to throw at their height, and if we keep the effort up like we did against Houston and UNC we shouldn't get killed on the boards. Tall shooters murder us - Syracuse can't shoot at all. We should try to run against them and take advantage of our depth at guard. I expect Thompson to get dominated so hopefully we'll limit his minutes. When he plays 20 minutes or more Wake is 1-5. Under 20 and we're 6-1.

Guards will need to drive hard and force contact inside to open up some outside shots. If we're lazy and just throw it around the perimeter until we have to force something up it'll be an unwatchable mess.
 
DCDeac said:
Kinda need to win the next 3 to make the season even borderline interesting. We go on a pretty absurd 8 game run after that. 6 of 8 are ranked teams, the other 2 are State and Louisville - both on the road.

Then we finish with 6 winnable games... Wonder if we can somehow find 4 wins between now and Miami.

As for Syracuse, this is a decent matchup for us. We have two 7 footers to throw at their height, and if we keep the effort up like we did against Houston and UNC we shouldn't get killed on the boards. Tall shooters murder us - Syracuse can't shoot at all. We should try to run against them and take advantage of our depth at guard. I expect Thompson to get dominated so hopefully we'll limit his minutes. When he plays 20 minutes or more Wake is 1-5. Under 20 and we're 6-1.

Guards will need to drive hard and force contact inside to open up some outside shots. If we're lazy and just throw it around the perimeter until we have to force something up it'll be an unwatchable mess.
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Wow. That Thompson stat is pretty crazy.
 
Cuse fan...Chukwu was a horrible FT shooter...he actually worked with an Asst Coach and dare I say he is now borderline decent for a big man. He is still a work in progress but he'll be just the type of guy who will make an NBA team in 2 years as a back up center.
 
The way we like to dribble the ball around so much, should work really well against their zone.Facepalm
 
If I’m Danny, I’m throwing a zone at them all game with Eggleston and Sarr getting pretty big minutes. Hope Key, Craw, Chill, and Sarr’s 3-point shot is on. I think this is a game we will win.
 
Current line on the game is WF -1.5 Total 137.5 (essentially a 69-68 WF win). 70% of the action is on the Orange.
 
DCDeac said:
I expect Thompson to get dominated so hopefully we'll limit his minutes. When he plays 20 minutes or more Wake is 1-5. Under 20 and we're 6-1.
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I guess TT is not a flow player like Chaundee
 
WF 0-5 against Cuse all-time

I really hope we can get some better news into the Game Notes than the following from today:

PLAYING WITH A LEAD
• Despite a 7-6 record, the Demon Deacons have led in the second half in 11 of 13 games this season
• In 520 minutes this season, Wake Forest has led for 334:58 and trailed for just 147:11
 
Realize that Cuse essentially joined the ACC last week, but embarrassing to be 0 for against any conference opponent. Guessing that WF is the only ACC team that has not beaten Cuse since they joined.
 
liveanddiedeac said:
The way we like to dribble the ball around so much, should work really well against their zone.Facepalm
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Our best offense against a 2-3 has been flashing Crawford at the free throw line. No one else on our team can distribute from there (or really at all for that matter), which doesn't bode well considering that's a weaker part of a 2-3. Chaundee should be able to wreak havoc in that area, but given his struggles on the offensive end, I'm not expecting it.
 
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Actually Mitchell looked pretty good at the free throw line when Crawford wasn't in. Small sample size obviously, but I think I'd prefer his decision making over Sarr's at this point when Crawford's out.
 
BChill is gonna need to remember that he has team mates and they need to touch the ball before he shoots. Maybe Danny needs to go Jr high gym class rule. Nobody shoots until everybody touches the ball.
 
DCDeac said:
Actually Mitchell looked pretty good at the free throw line when Crawford wasn't in. Small sample size obviously, but I think I'd prefer his decision making over Sarr's at this point when Crawford's out.
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Definitely. We just need SOMEONE at that position on the floor. Even if they aren't a real threat, and their job is literally just to swing it from one side to the other without even looking at the basket. That location creates stress for the guards in a 2-3 and tests rotations. That's what's so frustrating about our offense sometimes, is that we don't pass the ball enough to even make defenses rotate and test their most basic fundamentals.
 
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