Pilchard
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 3, 2011
- Messages
- 17,643
- Reaction score
- 6,865
Our Deacs hope to end a 3-game skid on Wednesday, when Brad Brownell's Clemson Tigers visit the Joel. He is a breakdown on the 13-5 (7-5) #41 Tigers.
This season: Clemson is in the middle of a second, and more extensive (12 day), COVID pause of the season. Clemson's season can be divided into 3 segments: a) hot start; b) mid-season collapse; c) return to form. Over Clemson's first 9 games, the Tigers had one of the most impressive starts of any team in the nation. During that stretch, Clemson claimed wins over: #72 Miss. State by 11, #17 Purdue by 11, #30 Maryland by 16, #8 Bama by 8 and #12 FSU by 10. Clemson had risen to #18 with a bullet. Then, the Tigers collapsed, which included missing two games due to COVID. During the collapse phase, Clemson lost by 35 at home to UVA, by 18 to GT, by 19 to FSU and by 26 to Duke - noncompetitive. The During this awful stretch, the Tigers dropped from #18 to #61 over a span of 5 games. Then, to start February, Clemson appeared to find its way beating UNC by 13, Cuse by 17 and GT by 2, and played itself back into NCAA Tournament consideration. On February 12, COVID hit the program again. After an 8 day shutdown, the Tigers returned to practice for the first time this past Saturday, but Coach Brownell admitted that not all of their players have been cleared to return. In these days governed by HIPAA further details about who is still out is currently unavailable, but for those with a financial interest in the outcome, you may want to check reports about who from Clemson is warming up on Wednesday afternoon. Brownell did say today that Clemson expects to play the game against Wake Forest on Wednesday.
Most recent starting lineup: in the two point win over GT (on a miracle last second three point heave by Nick Honor; see below), the Tigers started:
5-10 So. Nick Honor - Fordham transfer; beefy, built like a LB; leader in steals; second in scoring; 2 to 1 A/TO ratio; erratic scorer; scored 21 in the win over State; then scored 6 or less in five of the next 6 games; 42% from 3
6-4 So. Alex Hemenway - one trick pony; shooter has taken 41 threes and 17 twos; shot 48% from 3 last year; struggled this year 32% from deep
6-4 Sr. Clyde Trapp - second in rebounds and assists; averaging 9 rpg over the last 3 games; 41% from 3 in ACC games; 55% from the line
6-8 Jr. Hunter Tyson - starter over the last 5 games, but plays limited minutes; scored a career high 16 in the recent win over UNC
6-8 Sr. Aamir Simms - "the man" for Clemson; leads team in points (only double digit scorer), rebounds, assists, blocks; averaging 18 ppg over the last 5 games; fouls can be an issue; fouled out twice; has been whistled for 4 fouls three other times; if he's out, Clemson is limited
Off the bench:
6-2 So. Al-Amir Dawes - (not to be confused with Aamir Sims) frequent starter; played well to start the year (double figures in 7 of the first 8 games; only once in the last 10) 33% from 3; prone to TOs
6-8 Fr. Olivier Maxence Prosper - Canadian; usage has been up recently; scored 9 and grabbed 5 boards in the recent win over Cuse; no threat from 3
6-10 Sr. Jon Baehre - UNCA transfer; scored 8 in the win over GT; 26% from 3;
One other player of note:
Not sure if he is in the doghouse or injured or both, but former WF recruit John Newman's minutes have fallen off a cliff; after leading Clemson in PT and starting every game in 2020; Newman was the 9th man off the bench in the win over GT, playing only 7 minutes; his shooting has been poor this year, shooting 24% from 3; and 35% from the field; wouldn't be surprised to see Newman in the transfer portal after the season.
Analytics: Like every Brad Brownell team, Clemson plays at a slow pace (13th in the ACC), and emphasizes defense (8th in the ACC) over offense (14th in the ACC). Clemson struggles to put the ball in the basket shooting 32% from 3 in ACC play (13th) and having a 48% effective FG% (12th). Clemson is also prone to TOs (19% TO rate 11th in the ACC). Clemson's only offensive strength is from the line (77% - 4th). Clemson has scored 66 or less in 8 of its last 10 games. On defense, the Tigers make teams to grind out offensive possessions (4th in the ACC in longest defensive possessions), they also force TOs (5th in the ACC in TO rate; 1st in non-steal TO rate) and Clemson keeps teams off the offensive glass (5th in the ACC in preventing offensive boards).
Bottom line: KP projects 67-62 Tiger win in 65 possessions. The last time off a COVID pause, Clemson lost by 35 at home to UVA. Sounds like the Tigers will have players out, but will it be walk-ons or Aamir Simms and Nick Honor? Even if Clemson has a full roster, Clemson rarely wins by large margins. Also, the Tigers have played their best games at Littlejohn, but they have struggled on the ACC road (1-4; the one win was by a single point over banged up Miami). I have everlasting faith in Coach Forbes, and feel like WF will have the team ready after two disappointing performances (yes, I thought the same thing heading into the State game). Clemson lacks the size (no starter taller than 6-8) that has given WF recent trouble. That said, Aamir Simms is 6-8 245, and WF has no one to physically match up with him. Would guess Ody is WF's best option, but Ody v. Simms has "two quick Ody fouls" written all over it; whomever covers Simms will need help, but Clemson other players are limited; so, helping is an option. After years of futility against Clemson, WF managed to beat Clemson in an disgusting 56-44 final last February. Don't see WF playing crappy three times in a row; so, the Deacs will find a way to pull out a low scoring win over rusty Clemson on Wednesday, damaging to the Tigers' NCAA hopes.
This season: Clemson is in the middle of a second, and more extensive (12 day), COVID pause of the season. Clemson's season can be divided into 3 segments: a) hot start; b) mid-season collapse; c) return to form. Over Clemson's first 9 games, the Tigers had one of the most impressive starts of any team in the nation. During that stretch, Clemson claimed wins over: #72 Miss. State by 11, #17 Purdue by 11, #30 Maryland by 16, #8 Bama by 8 and #12 FSU by 10. Clemson had risen to #18 with a bullet. Then, the Tigers collapsed, which included missing two games due to COVID. During the collapse phase, Clemson lost by 35 at home to UVA, by 18 to GT, by 19 to FSU and by 26 to Duke - noncompetitive. The During this awful stretch, the Tigers dropped from #18 to #61 over a span of 5 games. Then, to start February, Clemson appeared to find its way beating UNC by 13, Cuse by 17 and GT by 2, and played itself back into NCAA Tournament consideration. On February 12, COVID hit the program again. After an 8 day shutdown, the Tigers returned to practice for the first time this past Saturday, but Coach Brownell admitted that not all of their players have been cleared to return. In these days governed by HIPAA further details about who is still out is currently unavailable, but for those with a financial interest in the outcome, you may want to check reports about who from Clemson is warming up on Wednesday afternoon. Brownell did say today that Clemson expects to play the game against Wake Forest on Wednesday.
Most recent starting lineup: in the two point win over GT (on a miracle last second three point heave by Nick Honor; see below), the Tigers started:
5-10 So. Nick Honor - Fordham transfer; beefy, built like a LB; leader in steals; second in scoring; 2 to 1 A/TO ratio; erratic scorer; scored 21 in the win over State; then scored 6 or less in five of the next 6 games; 42% from 3
6-4 So. Alex Hemenway - one trick pony; shooter has taken 41 threes and 17 twos; shot 48% from 3 last year; struggled this year 32% from deep
6-4 Sr. Clyde Trapp - second in rebounds and assists; averaging 9 rpg over the last 3 games; 41% from 3 in ACC games; 55% from the line
6-8 Jr. Hunter Tyson - starter over the last 5 games, but plays limited minutes; scored a career high 16 in the recent win over UNC
6-8 Sr. Aamir Simms - "the man" for Clemson; leads team in points (only double digit scorer), rebounds, assists, blocks; averaging 18 ppg over the last 5 games; fouls can be an issue; fouled out twice; has been whistled for 4 fouls three other times; if he's out, Clemson is limited
Off the bench:
6-2 So. Al-Amir Dawes - (not to be confused with Aamir Sims) frequent starter; played well to start the year (double figures in 7 of the first 8 games; only once in the last 10) 33% from 3; prone to TOs
6-8 Fr. Olivier Maxence Prosper - Canadian; usage has been up recently; scored 9 and grabbed 5 boards in the recent win over Cuse; no threat from 3
6-10 Sr. Jon Baehre - UNCA transfer; scored 8 in the win over GT; 26% from 3;
One other player of note:
Not sure if he is in the doghouse or injured or both, but former WF recruit John Newman's minutes have fallen off a cliff; after leading Clemson in PT and starting every game in 2020; Newman was the 9th man off the bench in the win over GT, playing only 7 minutes; his shooting has been poor this year, shooting 24% from 3; and 35% from the field; wouldn't be surprised to see Newman in the transfer portal after the season.
Analytics: Like every Brad Brownell team, Clemson plays at a slow pace (13th in the ACC), and emphasizes defense (8th in the ACC) over offense (14th in the ACC). Clemson struggles to put the ball in the basket shooting 32% from 3 in ACC play (13th) and having a 48% effective FG% (12th). Clemson is also prone to TOs (19% TO rate 11th in the ACC). Clemson's only offensive strength is from the line (77% - 4th). Clemson has scored 66 or less in 8 of its last 10 games. On defense, the Tigers make teams to grind out offensive possessions (4th in the ACC in longest defensive possessions), they also force TOs (5th in the ACC in TO rate; 1st in non-steal TO rate) and Clemson keeps teams off the offensive glass (5th in the ACC in preventing offensive boards).
Bottom line: KP projects 67-62 Tiger win in 65 possessions. The last time off a COVID pause, Clemson lost by 35 at home to UVA. Sounds like the Tigers will have players out, but will it be walk-ons or Aamir Simms and Nick Honor? Even if Clemson has a full roster, Clemson rarely wins by large margins. Also, the Tigers have played their best games at Littlejohn, but they have struggled on the ACC road (1-4; the one win was by a single point over banged up Miami). I have everlasting faith in Coach Forbes, and feel like WF will have the team ready after two disappointing performances (yes, I thought the same thing heading into the State game). Clemson lacks the size (no starter taller than 6-8) that has given WF recent trouble. That said, Aamir Simms is 6-8 245, and WF has no one to physically match up with him. Would guess Ody is WF's best option, but Ody v. Simms has "two quick Ody fouls" written all over it; whomever covers Simms will need help, but Clemson other players are limited; so, helping is an option. After years of futility against Clemson, WF managed to beat Clemson in an disgusting 56-44 final last February. Don't see WF playing crappy three times in a row; so, the Deacs will find a way to pull out a low scoring win over rusty Clemson on Wednesday, damaging to the Tigers' NCAA hopes.
Last edited: