Pilchard
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This Sunday night, will America be watching Brady versus Brees or VT @ WF? Will be a tough call for dozens. For those that follow our Deacs, here is the breakdown for WF's fifth opponent (and 4th straight ranked opponent):
This season: Didn't take Mike Young to rebuild the Hokies (helps to have lots of transfers -- 4). Despite currently retaining only one player (PG Wabissa Bede) who played a minute for Buzz Williams' last VT team two seasons ago (the 2019 Sweet 16 Hokies), a strong VT team visits the Joel on Sunday. Young's team sits at 10-2 (4-1) with a series of impressive top 100 wins: #5 Villanova in OT, #99 USF by 18, #16 Clemson by 6, #79 Miami by 2, #87 ND by 14 and most recently #26 Duke by 8. VT only two losses are puzzling 20 point home loss to # 47 Penn State and at #27 L'ville by 2. While VT has played a lot of games (12), they have played only 1 true road game (the loss at Louisville). After playing WF, VT returns home to play BC.
The starting lineup last time out against Duke:
6-1 Sr. Wabissa Bede -- assist leader; not a scorer, as Bede has scored in double figures once; 27% from 3
6-2 So. Tyrece Radford -- best rebounding guard in the ACC; 12 boards against Duke; also had 18 points and 5 assists against Duke; 22% from 3; super strong
6-4 So. Nahiem Alene -- erratic; scored 20 against Villanova; scoreless against ND; can shoot: 38% from 3, 89% from the line
6-7 Jr. Justyn Mutts -- Delaware transfer, WF offered, averaging 10 ppg and 6 rpg against ACC teams; 33% from 3
6-9 Jr. Keve Aluma - Wofford transfer, solid post player, scored in double digits in 11 of 12 games, averaging 16 ppg and 6 rpg against ACC teams, 30% from 3
The bench (look out for shooters!):
5-10 So. Jalen Cone -- instant offense; love him: from Walkertown; killer that WF missed on him: shoots 41% from 3, leads VT 3 point shots and attempts, if he has space, it's going up
6-3 So. Hunter Cattoor -- another deadeye shooter, 47% from 3; not great on D
6-9 Cordell Pemsl -- Iowa transfer, missed the last 3 games with an njury, non-scorer
6-9 David N'Guessan -- Only other big off the bench, a stiff
Other player of note:
6-4 Carter Diarra -- coveted K State transfer, was expected to be a big part of VT's team this year, opted out of the season in early December
The analytics: VT does the little things to win. They don't turnover the ball over on O (#4 in the ACC in TO%), and they get to the line (#1 in the ACC in FTs per FGA; #2 in the ACC in % of offense from FTs). On defense, they keep teams off the offensive glass (#3 in the ACC in preventing offensive rebounds). That said, VT's interior defense has been below average (ACC teams shot 51% from 2). The Hokies play at a moderate tempo averaging 69 possessions a game in ACC play.
Bottom line: Young is 6-3 head to head against Forbes, but their head to head record was 3-3 heading into 2019, when Young coached one of the best mid-major teams in recent years -- the 30-5 Wofford team that won 21 straight games, including a 16 point win over Seton Hall to open the tournament and nail-biter loss to KY in the round of 32. That year, ETSU lost Wofford in OT, and then again in the SOCON semis.
KP projects a 74-67 Hokie win (70 possessions). Watching both WF and VT play Duke in back to back games, the big difference between the two teams against the Devils was VT's ability to keep Duke off the offensive glass and ability to limit turnovers. Duke rebounded 47% of its missed shots against WF and 24% against VT. WF also committed 15 TOs against Duke; VT only committed 10. For WF to have a chance, the Deacs will need to rebound, including keeping Radford off the glass, and protect the ball. Also, WF will need to keep Cone and Cattoor from going off from behind the arc. This is a letdown spot as VT is coming off the Duke win, and the Hokies have only played away from Blacksburg once since November. Would be more optimistic about Sunday's game if Whitt was 100%. Think VT is just a better team, and Young finds ways to win close games. Hope to be wrong, but looks like the Deacs lose to another ranked team.
This season: Didn't take Mike Young to rebuild the Hokies (helps to have lots of transfers -- 4). Despite currently retaining only one player (PG Wabissa Bede) who played a minute for Buzz Williams' last VT team two seasons ago (the 2019 Sweet 16 Hokies), a strong VT team visits the Joel on Sunday. Young's team sits at 10-2 (4-1) with a series of impressive top 100 wins: #5 Villanova in OT, #99 USF by 18, #16 Clemson by 6, #79 Miami by 2, #87 ND by 14 and most recently #26 Duke by 8. VT only two losses are puzzling 20 point home loss to # 47 Penn State and at #27 L'ville by 2. While VT has played a lot of games (12), they have played only 1 true road game (the loss at Louisville). After playing WF, VT returns home to play BC.
The starting lineup last time out against Duke:
6-1 Sr. Wabissa Bede -- assist leader; not a scorer, as Bede has scored in double figures once; 27% from 3
6-2 So. Tyrece Radford -- best rebounding guard in the ACC; 12 boards against Duke; also had 18 points and 5 assists against Duke; 22% from 3; super strong
6-4 So. Nahiem Alene -- erratic; scored 20 against Villanova; scoreless against ND; can shoot: 38% from 3, 89% from the line
6-7 Jr. Justyn Mutts -- Delaware transfer, WF offered, averaging 10 ppg and 6 rpg against ACC teams; 33% from 3
6-9 Jr. Keve Aluma - Wofford transfer, solid post player, scored in double digits in 11 of 12 games, averaging 16 ppg and 6 rpg against ACC teams, 30% from 3
The bench (look out for shooters!):
5-10 So. Jalen Cone -- instant offense; love him: from Walkertown; killer that WF missed on him: shoots 41% from 3, leads VT 3 point shots and attempts, if he has space, it's going up
6-3 So. Hunter Cattoor -- another deadeye shooter, 47% from 3; not great on D
6-9 Cordell Pemsl -- Iowa transfer, missed the last 3 games with an njury, non-scorer
6-9 David N'Guessan -- Only other big off the bench, a stiff
Other player of note:
6-4 Carter Diarra -- coveted K State transfer, was expected to be a big part of VT's team this year, opted out of the season in early December
The analytics: VT does the little things to win. They don't turnover the ball over on O (#4 in the ACC in TO%), and they get to the line (#1 in the ACC in FTs per FGA; #2 in the ACC in % of offense from FTs). On defense, they keep teams off the offensive glass (#3 in the ACC in preventing offensive rebounds). That said, VT's interior defense has been below average (ACC teams shot 51% from 2). The Hokies play at a moderate tempo averaging 69 possessions a game in ACC play.
Bottom line: Young is 6-3 head to head against Forbes, but their head to head record was 3-3 heading into 2019, when Young coached one of the best mid-major teams in recent years -- the 30-5 Wofford team that won 21 straight games, including a 16 point win over Seton Hall to open the tournament and nail-biter loss to KY in the round of 32. That year, ETSU lost Wofford in OT, and then again in the SOCON semis.
KP projects a 74-67 Hokie win (70 possessions). Watching both WF and VT play Duke in back to back games, the big difference between the two teams against the Devils was VT's ability to keep Duke off the offensive glass and ability to limit turnovers. Duke rebounded 47% of its missed shots against WF and 24% against VT. WF also committed 15 TOs against Duke; VT only committed 10. For WF to have a chance, the Deacs will need to rebound, including keeping Radford off the glass, and protect the ball. Also, WF will need to keep Cone and Cattoor from going off from behind the arc. This is a letdown spot as VT is coming off the Duke win, and the Hokies have only played away from Blacksburg once since November. Would be more optimistic about Sunday's game if Whitt was 100%. Think VT is just a better team, and Young finds ways to win close games. Hope to be wrong, but looks like the Deacs lose to another ranked team.
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