Pilchard
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- May 3, 2011
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Link to previous breakdown of the Pack
Using Torvik's ability to focus the analytics of teams to certain time frames, here is a snapshot of the NCS/WF matchup since the Pack's January 16 83-76 win over the Deacs (WF has played 5 games; NCS has played 6):
Analytics since January 16th:
NCS (national ranks):
Rank: #119 in the nation
Off Eff: 105 #193
Def. Eff: 100 #77
O Eff. FG%: 46 #309
D Eff. FG%: 48 #87
2 PT% O: 45 #322
2 PT% D: 47 #85
3 PT% O: 33 #224
3 PT% D: 33 #148
D TO%: 13 #335
Tempo: 69
WF (national ranks):
Rank: 10th in the nation
Off Eff: 119 #31
Def Eff: 92 #11
O Eff. FG%: 56 #37
D Eff. FG%: 47 #53
2 PT% O: 56 #46
2 PT% D: 50 #166
3 PT% O: 38 #82
3 PT% D: 26 #20
D TO%: 19 #72
Tempo: 70
Key points:
KP: WF 78-70
Torvik: WF 79-69
Based upon the numbers, WF should win this game comfortably. Simply, the Deacs have been the far better team offensively and defensively over the past four weeks. Further, WF has been lights out at home 13-0 this season; while NCS is 2-3 on the road (with wins at ND and at L'ville). Got to feel good about all of that.
Even so, NCS has given WF problems under Forbes (Keatts is 5-2); in particular, WF has struggled with TOs against the Pack's pressure D. On January 16th, WF turned the ball over 17 times (20% TO rate); Boopie had 6; Efton had 4. So, avoiding TOs is key. Deacs are coming off a game where the opponent (GT) shot 12% from three and could not manage .7 per possession. Unlikely that a 2nd opponent would shoot so poorly two games in a row. The Deacs also have a nationally televised game at Duke on Monday. Based on all of those circumstances, can't recommend taking WF in a rivalry game giving double digits. Given that WF should expect some defensive regression, and that WF is scoring lots of points in home games, would lean over if the total is less than 150. Would love to win this game in dominating fashion, but would be happy with any win as WF has the two toughest remaining games next: @ Duke and @ UVA. Got to be 8-4 in the ACC heading into those tough contests.
Using Torvik's ability to focus the analytics of teams to certain time frames, here is a snapshot of the NCS/WF matchup since the Pack's January 16 83-76 win over the Deacs (WF has played 5 games; NCS has played 6):
Analytics since January 16th:
NCS (national ranks):
Rank: #119 in the nation
Off Eff: 105 #193
Def. Eff: 100 #77
O Eff. FG%: 46 #309
D Eff. FG%: 48 #87
2 PT% O: 45 #322
2 PT% D: 47 #85
3 PT% O: 33 #224
3 PT% D: 33 #148
D TO%: 13 #335
Tempo: 69
WF (national ranks):
Rank: 10th in the nation
Off Eff: 119 #31
Def Eff: 92 #11
O Eff. FG%: 56 #37
D Eff. FG%: 47 #53
2 PT% O: 56 #46
2 PT% D: 50 #166
3 PT% O: 38 #82
3 PT% D: 26 #20
D TO%: 19 #72
Tempo: 70
Key points:
- WF has played superior basketball to NCS since January 16th
- WF's defense has been outstanding (#11 in defensive efficiency); best stretch by far in the Forbes era
- WF's 3 point defense has been crazy good (three point defense is a combination of merit and luck); so, WF's defense has been legitimately good, but WF has also been somewhat lucky
- NCS has played two road games in that stretch; to the Pack's credit, they almost upset UVA losing in OT; but the Pack also crapped the bed at Cuse, losing by 12.
KP: WF 78-70
Torvik: WF 79-69
Based upon the numbers, WF should win this game comfortably. Simply, the Deacs have been the far better team offensively and defensively over the past four weeks. Further, WF has been lights out at home 13-0 this season; while NCS is 2-3 on the road (with wins at ND and at L'ville). Got to feel good about all of that.
Even so, NCS has given WF problems under Forbes (Keatts is 5-2); in particular, WF has struggled with TOs against the Pack's pressure D. On January 16th, WF turned the ball over 17 times (20% TO rate); Boopie had 6; Efton had 4. So, avoiding TOs is key. Deacs are coming off a game where the opponent (GT) shot 12% from three and could not manage .7 per possession. Unlikely that a 2nd opponent would shoot so poorly two games in a row. The Deacs also have a nationally televised game at Duke on Monday. Based on all of those circumstances, can't recommend taking WF in a rivalry game giving double digits. Given that WF should expect some defensive regression, and that WF is scoring lots of points in home games, would lean over if the total is less than 150. Would love to win this game in dominating fashion, but would be happy with any win as WF has the two toughest remaining games next: @ Duke and @ UVA. Got to be 8-4 in the ACC heading into those tough contests.