Pilchard
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Deacs at the Hoos start off a busy Saturday NCAA basketball slate with a noon tipoff at JPJ Arena. Here is a link to the previous report on UVA:
The link to the UVA Report #1
UVA season update: After losing big (66-47) at WF on January 13th, the Hoos ran off eight straight ACC wins, before stumbling at home against Pitt last night. UVA now sits at 19-6 (10-4) - third in the ACC and 1.5 game ahead of 4th place WF (8-5). Among the benefits of a WF win on Saturday, would be a rare sweep of the Hoos, which would give WF the tiebreaker if the Deacs and the Hoos end the regular season with the same record.
Here are the updated key Torvik analytics on UVA and WF since that January 13th game:
The Projection:
KP: UVA 65-64
Torvik: UVA 64-62
A tough game just got tougher after Pitt drilled UVA last night. The loss snapped the Hoos 23 home win streak. For the most part, the Pitt/UVA game followed the script which Bennett likes: 59 possessions; UVA dominated inside outscoring Pitt 42-24 on twos and UVA shot more FTs than Pitt. So, how did UVA lose? Pitt shot 32 threes and made 44% of them, including a 5 for 13 night for Blake Hinson. So, Saturday, expect a low possession game with UVA looking to pound the ball inside to lure Reid into foul trouble. In WF's January win over UVA, Reid played 32 minutes and was called for just three fouls. WF also hit 48% of its threes. While the pack-line defense is vulnerable to a hot three point shooting team, the Hoos will spend the next two days looking for ways to takeaway the three. Would love to pick WF to win at UVA, but Hoos home domination and WF's road struggles make a Deacon win seem improbable. If the O/U is around the KP projection of 129, recommend the under. Guessing the total will close around 125. Deacs need that Q1 win, but hard to project that it happens on Saturday.
The link to the UVA Report #1
UVA season update: After losing big (66-47) at WF on January 13th, the Hoos ran off eight straight ACC wins, before stumbling at home against Pitt last night. UVA now sits at 19-6 (10-4) - third in the ACC and 1.5 game ahead of 4th place WF (8-5). Among the benefits of a WF win on Saturday, would be a rare sweep of the Hoos, which would give WF the tiebreaker if the Deacs and the Hoos end the regular season with the same record.
Here are the updated key Torvik analytics on UVA and WF since that January 13th game:
- Torvik rates UVA and WF as the top two ACC teams since January 13th. Overall, Torvik rates UVA as the #11 team in the nation since January 13th and even though WF holds a 4-4 mark since beating UVA, WF is #23 (Duke is #26 and UNC is #32)
- UVA has the #52 offense and the #6 defense (nationally) over the their last 9 games, and UVA has played the slowest tempo in the nation over that stretch averaging only 60 possessions per game (68 is average)
- UVA has been particularly good at shooting the three (42% - #6 in the nation) since Mid-January
- WF has the #36 offense and the #25 defense since the January win over UVA, while WF has averaged 71 possessions per game (#48 nationally)
- WF's three point defense has been outstanding since mid-January: 26% #13 nationally
- UVA (#37) commits fewer offensive TOs than WF (#72), while UVA's defense (#63) causes far more TOs than WF's (#295)
The Projection:
KP: UVA 65-64
Torvik: UVA 64-62
A tough game just got tougher after Pitt drilled UVA last night. The loss snapped the Hoos 23 home win streak. For the most part, the Pitt/UVA game followed the script which Bennett likes: 59 possessions; UVA dominated inside outscoring Pitt 42-24 on twos and UVA shot more FTs than Pitt. So, how did UVA lose? Pitt shot 32 threes and made 44% of them, including a 5 for 13 night for Blake Hinson. So, Saturday, expect a low possession game with UVA looking to pound the ball inside to lure Reid into foul trouble. In WF's January win over UVA, Reid played 32 minutes and was called for just three fouls. WF also hit 48% of its threes. While the pack-line defense is vulnerable to a hot three point shooting team, the Hoos will spend the next two days looking for ways to takeaway the three. Would love to pick WF to win at UVA, but Hoos home domination and WF's road struggles make a Deacon win seem improbable. If the O/U is around the KP projection of 129, recommend the under. Guessing the total will close around 125. Deacs need that Q1 win, but hard to project that it happens on Saturday.
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