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Niall Ferguson's scathing indictment of Obama

Obama can be attacked on the economy, but Romney does not appear to be the right messenger. Maybe Ryan will become that messenger but I doubt that he can save the Republican presidential ticket this time around.
 
Noah Smith's scathing indictment of Niall Ferguson: http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2012/08/niall-british-empire-is-over-accept-it.html

Ferguson is criticizing Obama for allowing the "fiscal cliff" to happen. The fiscal cliff is a series of pre-arranged, automatic spending cuts and tax increases - in other words, things that will reduce the deficit. So Ferguson, who blasted Obama for increasing the deficit, is now blasting him for cutting the deficit.

Additionally, Ferguson warns that this pre-programmed austerity will cause GDP to contract. But if that's true, it must follow that deficits boost GDP - in other words, that stimulus works. I.e., the exact opposite of what Ferguson implies with his "sugar rush" comment and his many previous anti-stimulus writings. But Ferguson either fails to see this implication of his "fiscal cliff" critique, or else sees it and bulls right through it, refusing to sacrifice an Obama-bashing opportunity on the altar of self-consistency.
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But - and this is why he makes me so angry - Niall Ferguson badly misunderstands my country. We are a Republic, not an Empire, and we always will be. We rejected the mantle of Anglo-Saxon world domination in the Philippines, again in Vietnam, and again in Iraq. And we will always reject it. We do not want to go forth and educate and enlighten the brown people at the point of our Tomahawk missiles, Mr. Ferguson. We want to invite them here, to live with us, to work for us and hire us, to marry our children, to become part of this country. Even, yes, to lead this country, as Barack Obama, for all his faults, has done. We do not want to conquer the world. We want to become the world.
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To the first quote: deficit spending is most like alcohol abuse. Temporarily the economy feels good but eventually all you do with it is avoid the inevitable hangover. And the longer you abuse, the worse the hangover. If you abuse long enough, you kill yourself. At any rate, the fact that when you stop you develop a hangover does not imply that if you continue at the same rate of abuse that you will improve yourself.
 
An economy is not a liver.

Can you describe the Great Gingrich Hangover of the mid-90s for me, which surely must have followed the persistent Carter-Reagan-Bush I deficits as Newt and Clinton closed the deficit?
 
DreamOnDemOn said:
To the first quote: deficit spending is most like alcohol abuse. Temporarily the economy feels good but eventually all you do with it is avoid the inevitable hangover. And the longer you abuse, the worse the hangover. If you abuse long enough, you kill yourself. At any rate, the fact that when you stop you develop a hangover does not imply that if you continue at the same rate of abuse that you will improve yourself.
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Long Term Treasuries will collapse in time...there won't be any "quantitative" fix.
 
TuffaloDeac10 said:
An economy is not a liver.

Can you describe the Great Gingrich Hangover of the mid-90s for me, which surely must have followed the persistent Carter-Reagan-Bush I deficits as Newt and Clinton closed the deficit?
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It's all about the liver, stupid
 
A stimulus is not good or bad per se. It all depends on the situation and the type of stimulus. What's so difficult to understand about that?
 
It's good to see that NEWSWEEK is willing to look at this election from both angles. It is refreshing to see balanced coverage.
 
The dichotomy and contradiction of the GOP economic plan is high comedy. On the one hand they scream bloody murder about unemployment at 8% and sluggish growth, and then they turn around and scream bloody murder about deficits and debt. They have conflated them into one issue. I have seen commercials that basically blame the economic situation on debt/deficit, or at least use language to strongly imply it. They are running on the debt and jobs at the same time. They can't solve one without fucking up the other, but they are blurring those lines. What do they expect is gonna happen when they take office? They can't do both.
 
WakeandBake said:
The dichotomy and contradiction of the GOP economic plan is high comedy. On the one hand they scream bloody murder about unemployment at 8% and sluggish growth, and then they turn around and scream bloody murder about deficits and debt. They have conflated them into one issue. I have seen commercials that basically blame the economic situation on debt/deficit, or at least use language to strongly imply it. They are running on the debt and jobs at the same time. They can't solve one without fucking up the other, but they are blurring those lines. What do they expect is gonna happen when they take office? They can't do both.
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That's a valid point. If Obama was going austere and economic growth and unemployment were worse right now, you can guarantee that the right wouldn't be giving him credit for it.
 
WakeandBake said:
The dichotomy and contradiction of the GOP economic plan is high comedy. On the one hand they scream bloody murder about unemployment at 8% and sluggish growth, and then they turn around and scream bloody murder about deficits and debt. They have conflated them into one issue. I have seen commercials that basically blame the economic situation on debt/deficit, or at least use language to strongly imply it. They are running on the debt and jobs at the same time. They can't solve one without fucking up the other, but they are blurring those lines. What do they expect is gonna happen when they take office? They can't do both.
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With humble expectations I will try to ask you a question which calls for a serious answer:

Do you not see a connection between high debt, out of control entitlements spending and a concentrating tax burden, and the lack of growth? I think 5 more trillion dollars of debt with no plan to pay it back, a horribly garbled message on Obamacare (I for one think the idea is much better than the Administration's ability to sell it) and a growing sense that the administration's economic policies are at best the avoidance of more bad (versus the advent of actual good) hurt job creation.

I don't expect you would be able to agree with this statement even if it is true, but stepping outside your own worldview, do you not see how the President's high spending, Obamacare and shelving Bowles-Simpson ad initio contribute to a lack of confidence in the private sector (and by extension, a reluctance to invest)?

Whoever wins this election could make huge strides by saying "We're in a big mess, we all know it, and we're going to lead the way out of it. Across the board cuts, across the board tax increases, modest in each case, but a mature, coordinated and ultimately, confidence-inspiring long-term plan to solvency (and thus, tax predictability) would let the private sector get back to creating jobs (rather than waiting for the other shoe to drop)."

Our economy is suffering from the pucker-factor. The 2008 collapse of the housing bubble caused everything to tighten up, and a lack of coherent economic message combined with the fool's errand into the health care overhaul has done little to relax our collective sphincter. If we could get someone with a plan in there, we'd at least have the certainty of predictability. Now, we're just kicking the can until the next 11th hour compromise between the House and the President (and WGAS what the impotent Senate thinks). Who wants to hire in that environment? Answer: Nobody, and the numbers prove it.
 
jhmd2000 said:
With humble expectations I will try to ask you a question which calls for a serious answer:

Do you not see a connection between high debt, out of control entitlements spending and a concentrating tax burden, and the lack of growth? I think 5 more trillion dollars of debt with no plan to pay it back, a horribly garbled message on Obamacare (I for one think the idea is much better than the Administration's ability to sell it) and a growing sense that the administration's economic policies are at best the avoidance of more bad (versus the advent of actual good) hurt job creation.

I don't expect you would be able to agree with this statement even if it is true, but stepping outside your own worldview, do you not see how the President's high spending, Obamacare and shelving Bowles-Simpson ad initio contribute to a lack of confidence in the private sector (and by extension, a reluctance to invest)?

Whoever wins this election could make huge strides by saying "We're in a big mess, we all know it, and we're going to lead the way out of it. Across the board cuts, across the board tax increases, modest in each case, but a mature, coordinated and ultimately, confidence-inspiring long-term plan to solvency (and thus, tax predictability) would let the private sector get back to creating jobs (rather than waiting for the other shoe to drop)."

Our economy is suffering from the pucker-factor. The 2008 collapse of the housing bubble caused everything to tighten up, and a lack of coherent economic message combined with the fool's errand into the health care overhaul has done little to relax our collective sphincter. If we could get someone with a plan in there, we'd at least have the certainty of predictability. Now, we're just kicking the can until the next 11th hour compromise between the House and the President (and WGAS what the impotent Senate thinks). Who wants to hire in that environment? Answer: Nobody, and the numbers prove it.
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What is it about the economic performance of the UK under Cameron that you find so inspiring?

The biggest problem for our businesses in the Little Depression is sales, not anything else.
 
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jhmd2000 said:
With humble expectations I will try to ask you a question which calls for a serious answer:

Do you not see a connection between high debt, out of control entitlements spending and a concentrating tax burden, and the lack of growth?

Quite frankly, no. We have had periods of high debt and simultaneous growth in the past many times. The lack of growth is not a mystery. 1) housing is at an all-time low and therefore is not there to buttresses growth as we are used to and 2) 35+ years of expanding household debt finally ground to a halt and consumers are for the first time in as many years concentrating on paying down debt. These two factors are what has caused demand to fall flat. Therefore, businesses are not expanding and are instead hoarding cash and waiting it out. They are not thinking about how much food stamps are being used, unless of course they own a market and accept them, and then they are probably glad. Government spending at this time is essential to stem the tide. We go austere, we're going to fuck it up. Borrowing money right now is cheap cheap cheap.


I think 5 more trillion dollars of debt with no plan to pay it back, a horribly garbled message on Obamacare (I for one think the idea is much better than the Administration's ability to sell it) and a growing sense that the administration's economic policies are at best the avoidance of more bad (versus the advent of actual good) hurt job creation.

No doubt the debt is worrisome to businesses, but if demand were high they wouldn't give a damn - they would be selling and thus expanding. Business owners are not hanging on every word the government says or watching the debt rise and making business decisions in reaction. They are trying to sell goods and services. They have been adding jobs every month for three years, but just not as robustly because of what I explained above. Government spending is essential to stem the tide.

I don't expect you would be able to agree with this statement even if it is true, but stepping outside your own worldview, do you not see how the President's high spending, Obamacare and shelving Bowles-Simpson ad initio contribute to a lack of confidence in the private sector (and by extension, a reluctance to invest)?

People are investing. I'm investing. No business owners are having trouble with investor confidence, they are just not expanding because demand is low. Consumers are paying down debt and/or no longer have growing equity in their home from which to borrow, and spend. Balance sheets are flush with cash in most cases. Corporations report record revenues because they are keeping costs low (labor costs and capital expenditures ie no expanding)

Whoever wins this election could make huge strides by saying "We're in a big mess, we all know it, and we're going to lead the way out of it. Across the board cuts, across the board tax increases, modest in each case, but a mature, coordinated and ultimately, confidence-inspiring long-term plan to solvency (and thus, tax predictability) would let the private sector get back to creating jobs (rather than waiting for the other shoe to drop)."

The private sector will add (more) jobs when they need to expand because they are selling a lot. Yeah, all those things you said are in order for the gov to fix its house, but it is not keeping businesses from hiring. Many many small businesses don't pay much attention to all this they are busy trying to sell dry cleaning, cheeseburgers, tires, cleaning services, milk and bread, cigarettes, pornography, bibles, etc.

Our economy is suffering from the pucker-factor. The 2008 collapse of the housing bubble caused everything to tighten up, and a lack of coherent economic message combined with the fool's errand into the health care overhaul has done little to relax our collective sphincter. If we could get someone with a plan in there, we'd at least have the certainty of predictability. Now, we're just kicking the can until the next 11th hour compromise between the House and the President (and WGAS what the impotent Senate thinks). Who wants to hire in that environment? Answer: Nobody, and the numbers prove it.

Did you just compare our economy to a puckered asshole there? Well done, sir.

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see above
 
WakeandBake said:
see above
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Fair points and a good post.

I like Ryan because he's serious about the problems posed by the deficit. He's willing to put his name to controversial measures that attack a problem everyone else is just ignoring. I especially like that clip of he and Clinton talking over a hot mic (no evidence either knew it was on). Each of those guys seemed to "get it" and be willing to work across party lines. Our (collective) problem is that everytime somebody shows leadership, his opponents (and it has happened both ways) goes out its way to hammer the guy with Mediscare hysteria campaign. American voters need to quit getting outsmarted by their politicians, and get behind the candidates that are willing to tackle big problems.

If you take the Tea Party as a case study, in many ways they were a necessary reaction to the overreaching on health care, stimulus and the excesses of the first two years of Obama's term, but they've done nothing of their own except posture and tie Boehner's hands with these anti-intellectual purity tests. I wish Boehner had said, "Screw the rookies, I'm going to broker a deal with O-B where we broaden the tax base (p.s. I couldn't think of a way to recruit more Republicans), get real about entitlements, and I'm willing to make reasonable concessions to get there." The Tea Party has served its purpose, and as a movement, it's corpus (but not philosophy) should go dormant, and be replaced by somebody with the courage to push Bowles-Simpson through. Would pay good $$$ to hear what Allen and Erskine think of their own parties in unguarded moments.
 
Surprisingly good post, jhmd.
 
jhmd2000 said:
Fair points and a good post.

I like Ryan because he's serious about the problems posed by the deficit. He's willing to put his name to controversial measures that attack a problem everyone else is just ignoring. I especially like that clip of he and Clinton talking over a hot mic (no evidence either knew it was on). Each of those guys seemed to "get it" and be willing to work across party lines. Our (collective) problem is that everytime somebody shows leadership, his opponents (and it has happened both ways) goes out its way to hammer the guy with Mediscare hysteria campaign. American voters need to quit getting outsmarted by their politicians, and get behind the candidates that are willing to tackle big problems.

If you take the Tea Party as a case study, in many ways they were a necessary reaction to the overreaching on health care, stimulus and the excesses of the first two years of Obama's term, but they've done nothing of their own except posture and tie Boehner's hands with these anti-intellectual purity tests. I wish Boehner had said, "Screw the rookies, I'm going to broker a deal with O-B where we broaden the tax base (p.s. I couldn't think of a way to recruit more Republicans), get real about entitlements, and I'm willing to make reasonable concessions to get there." The Tea Party has served its purpose, and as a movement, it's corpus (but not philosophy) should go dormant, and be replaced by somebody with the courage to push Bowles-Simpson through. Would pay good $$$ to hear what Allen and Erskine think of their own parties in unguarded moments.
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good points. The thing about Ryan is that he wants to go austere, and is really hanging his hopes and the hopes of America on supply-side theories. He believes it, so I guess I see why people take him as a guy with courage and conviction. I just can't get on board with it at all, but I'm sure he's a nice guy to have a beer with (as long as you dont bring up abortion or gay people.) I think you can give the "job creators" more tax breaks and they are just going to sit on the money - as they are their current money. They are way in the black right.

How can the government create demand? That is the question. (Maybe they should create a stimulus that pays down everyone's credit card and car note and underwater mortgage!!!! woohoo)

The supply is there, so tax cuts and dereg for businesses isn't really going to do squat. I know you don't watch Bill Maher, but Friday night Marc Cuban and the panel were talking about how cheap it is to start a business right now. Money is cheap.

Obamacare is a red herring.
 
jhmd2000 said:
I like Ryan because he's serious about the problems posed by the deficit.
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Why do people think this about Ryan? I'm being serious.

I'll just skip the whole issue of the deficit being a problem for now.

Again, why do people think Ryan is serious about the deficit?
 
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