AF +24.5 (Michigan is overrated; AF coming off a bye; AF will run clock)
Army +30 (same analysis as AF/Michigan; plus tOSU is playing with doubt on offense)
Illinois +17.5 (USF still unsettled on offense, and Lovie Smith can coach defense; Lovie's return to Tampa)
Toledo -9 (Tulsa's defense is awful; Toledo can score; like the over 67.5 too, but don't understand why the total has dropped more than a TD)
Also, lean to Tulane +35 as Oklahoma is in a major letdown spot, and Tulane's defense is decent. That said, don't like going against big favorites with Heisman candidates on offense as there is an incentive to run up the score. Also, Tulane is coming off a heartbreaking 2 point loss against Navy, hoping Tulane doesn't mail it in.
The Clemson side scares me. L'ville is tough at home against ranked teams, and I am not convinced that Clemson offense is that strong with Kelly Bryant at QB; yes, their defense was ridiculous last week, but they only scored 14 points against Auburn; L'ville will score. Like the VT side, if you simply bet against ECU each week, you will win more than you lose. They are embarrassing.
Tempted to take Baylor +14. Realize that Baylor has been flat-out horrible this year, and Duke played great last week, but Baylor would've been favored in this game two weeks ago, and doubt Duke will play as well two weeks in a row. The public is all over Duke, but they, like WF, are rarely a double digit favorite, and don't handle that role well. That said, fear that the first score from that game will Duke 21-0 in the first quarter, and I will feel like a dope.
Really don't know how any impartial handicapper would like the WF side this week. WF is coming off their conference opener, and plays a bigger game at App next week. WF sucks as a favorite and particularly sucks as a double digit favorite. USU has an experienced QB that won't make the same mistakes that BC frosh QB made last week. Fully expect an ugly game, and the only way to play the game is take the 13.5.