Been looking at college win totals before they move too much.
Have a strong early lean on the under UCLA 5.5 wins. Chip Kelly bailed on the program; they lost a ton of talent; and their HC is not only new; he had no coordinator experience.
Their schedule has a lot of losable games as they play @LSU OOC, in addition to Big 10 games against @ Washington, @ Penn State, USC, Oregon, Iowa (also think UCLA loses to BOTH Indiana and Rutgers; coaching mismatch).
Also like:
Texas under 10.5 (even if they win at Michigan in week #2 - line is currently Texas -3.5 - also happy to bet against Texas only taking 1 or less SEC loss)
ODU U5 (No easy Sun Belt games; ODU suffered heavy losses; they won a several games they should have lost last year - and one they could have won - WF)
Indiana O5.5 (Cignetti has never has had a losing season; did well in the portal; they brought in the best from JMU); have three bunnies: FIU, Western Illinois, Charlotte; only need to win three others)
Colorado U5.5 (no automatic wins; Deion doubter)
Florida U4.5 (insane schedule: UGA, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, FSU, Tennessee, A&M, Miami -- even UCF and UK are loseable -- Napier is a dead-man walking)
Kentucky O6.5 (bunnies: S. Miss, Murray State, Ohio, Vandy; Stoops did well in the portal; he knows how to win; not counting the COVID year KY has won 7 or more games every year since 2016).
Clemson U9.5 (don't see the Tigers going 10-1 after losing to UGA; ignoring the portal has damaged the program)