• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

Official MLB SPRING TRAINING THREAD (Cobb signs with O's)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Ohtani had a terrible spring. Will still make the team though.
 
Because he will produce more runs batting behind someone who gets on base at .333-.400+ rate.

Even at .333 OBP and Judge playing 150 games, he will bat for the first time with a runner on base 50 times. He hits a HR about every 13 PAs. This will give the Yankees a 2-0 lead at least two more times per season (this is low and assuming that two of those are hit at home and while behind -this is very unlikely but is very conservative).

That number doesn't include the other times he drives that guy in or the added runs created by having another power hitter behind the leadoff guy and Judge.

As I showed earlier, the difference between batting first and second is only 19 PAs.

Further, with all the stats we have today, it has to be inferred that starting pitchers are much more effective from the wind-up rather than from a stretch. If it was even relatively equal, a number of starters would be pitching exclusively from the stretch. I can't think of any of the 150+ rotation who do this. Thus, batting with a man on base 50+ more times than he would leading off would give him better pitches to hit in those PAs than he would have leading off.

I'm not saying put a Punch and Judy hitter second. This is only about Judge.
 
CheesePritchard said:
Some interesting extensions this spring. Obviously, Altuve gets the mega deal for being elite but DeJong, Suarez, and now Kingery provide new watermarks. My Braves would be smart to ink Albies to the DeJong deal before he puts up a 4+ WAR season. DeJong and the Reds intent to play Senzel at 2B/SS show that teams are valuing infield defense less due to shifts, strikeouts, and players hitting the ball in the air more.
Click to expand...

Kingery deal could be an interesting precedent in the wake of the whole fake-collusion thing.
 
RJKarl said:
Because he will produce more runs batting behind someone who gets on base at .333-.400+ rate.

Even at .333 OBP and Judge playing 150 games, he will bat for the first time with a runner on base 50 times. He hits a HR about every 13 PAs. This will give the Yankees a 2-0 lead at least two more times per season (this is low and assuming that two of those are hit at home and while behind -this is very unlikely but is very conservative).

That number doesn't include the other times he drives that guy in or the added runs created by having another power hitter behind the leadoff guy and Judge.

As I showed earlier, the difference between batting first and second is only 19 PAs.

Further, with all the stats we have today, it has to be inferred that starting pitchers are much more effective from the wind-up rather than from a stretch. If it was even relatively equal, a number of starters would be pitching exclusively from the stretch. I can't think of any of the 150+ rotation who do this. Thus, batting with a man on base 50+ more times than he would leading off would give him better pitches to hit in those PAs than he would have leading off.

I'm not saying put a Punch and Judy hitter second. This is only about Judge.
Click to expand...

Your statistical analysis is woefully inadequate, I don't even know how to argue it. We need much more complex models to determine the run value loss/gain by batting Judge 1st vs. 2nd/3rd.
 
I think that Stephen Strasburg of the Nats pitches from the stretch all the time.
 
Why? Batting second he will appear at least 50 times with a man on base that he wouldn't have batting first. He hit a HR every 13 PA. That would be 4 HR's with a man on. He knocked in a run every 6 PA. This could create another 8 RBI.

This is simple and direct. To not accept them is to pick and choose what to accept and not accept.
 
RJKarl said:
Why? Batting second he will appear at least 50 times with a man on base that he wouldn't have batting first. He hit a HR every 13 PA. That would be 4 HR's with a man on. He knocked in a run every 6 PA. This could create another 8 RBI.

This is simple and direct. To not accept them is to pick and choose what to accept and not accept.
Click to expand...

You're assuming that the "replacement" player wouldn't knock any of those guys in, and are focusing solely on Judge and his RBIs (presumably his runs scored would increase) without thinking about how it would affect the team as a whole. Essentially, you said "this is only about Judge" when it's not. You could still be correct looking at it that from the whole team aspect as well, I don't have the data to argue it either way (I'm assuming someone does), but it's an interesting thought experiment.
 
Last edited:
Deaconblue said:
I think that Stephen Strasburg of the Nats pitches from the stretch all the time.
Click to expand...

One or two or five out of 150+ shows that pitching out of the stretch is less efficient for the overwhelming number of starters.
 
JDawg said:
You're assuming that the "replacement" player wouldn't knock any of those guys in, and are focusing solely on Judge and his RBIs (presumably his runs scored would increase) without thinking about how it would affect the team as a whole. Essentially, you said "this is only about Judge" when it's not. You could still be correct looking at it that from the whole team aspect as well, I don't have the data to argue it either way (I'm assuming someone does), but it's an interesting thought experiment.
Click to expand...

I'm only talking about batting Judge 1st...no one else. He is an extreme player. Plus, he has multiple mega-hitters behind him.
 
Your analysis is flawed because you are focusing on the negative impact of batting him first (lost opportunity to drive in runs), without taking into account any positive impact (higher OBP, more PAs). Combined, the effects probably offset each other to minimal runs created/lost over a season.
 
There is also a not easy to quantify psychology in batting a guy like Judge first. Pitcher is out there looking at a guy who can put him behind in the runs game before he can record an out. Might that put at least some pitchers in the mind set that "this guy isn't hitting a lead off HR" and thus the pitcher is a lot more careful to not give a home run ball, but may be will issue more walks to Judge to avoid a HR and being down 1-0 with no outs in the game.
 
I did mention his 19 few PAs (1st vs. 2nd).

As to "higher OBP". That's pure speculation and very likely to be wrong. Batting first he will be facing pitchers out of the wind-up every 1st PA. He will also get better pitches to hit with more runners on in front of him.

I think what I'm showing is positive for the team. I'm showing ways they will score more. I even showed the high value of getting an initial lead which will be more likely due to having more opportunities in the first inning to drive in runs. The percentage of winning games after leading 2-0 is higher than 1-0 and hitting a HR with a man on can immediately erase an early lead for the opposition rather than simply tying the game.
 
Here's a pretty thorough analysis of lineup order. There is an argument on both sides, re whether the advantage of the higher OBP guy at the top is outweighed by batting with fewer men on base, or vice versa, particuarly as it relates to a power hitter. It's such a close call, that it probably doesn't matter either way in the specific example being discussed (Judge), but at the extremes, lineup optimization may be worth a win or two per year.

https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2012/10/12/3490578/lineup-optimization-part-1-of-2
 
FWIW, I plugged the Yankees projected lineup into a free online lineup optimizer, using projected OBP and SLG for this year, and came up with Stanton, Judge, Sanchez, Gardner, Gregorious, Drury, Walker, Bird, Hicks as the optimal lineup.
 
[Gets excited that people are actually posting the the baseball thread.]

[Sees that it's RJ arguing about RJ things.]

[Sad.]
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top