Official Week 10 NFL Thread: San Diego Ballot Measure Got SMOKED

[deacvision7]

Steelers with the fake spike to Antonio Brown for the game winning TD.

$5 says dv7 was screaming "Watch the fake!" at the TV.

 

[PhDeac]

Dak is going to win this game. This dude.

 

[HailToTheDeacons]

Not the first time Dallas has been burned by a fake spike.

 

[Ayo]

Steelers so dumb

 

[Ayo]

giggle

 

[PhDeac]

smh

 

[DeacHawk]

Helluva game

 

[HailToTheDeacons]

The Dallas offensive line is so good.

 

[deacvision7]

OMG OMG OGmaesljhadslfjaoejhgvsrafmnb

 

[deacvision7]

Does anyone in the NFC wanna be good?

giggle

Yep. I found it funny too.

 

[deacvision7]

JUST RUN THE FUCKING FOOTBALL ON THE 2 POINT CONV

 

[Ayo]

See you in Houston!

 

[deacvision7]

Zeke Elliott is God among us mere mortals

 

[deacvision7]

8 straight.


Who's got next?

 

[wfudkn]

Zeke gets me so fucking wet

 

[JuiceCrewAllStar]

Gonna be pretty Cowboys when he gets suspended for the playoffs.

 

[dartsndeacs]

I hope this ends any trend of coaches going for 2 every time.

Why? Because you don't like entertaining things to watch or you don't like people using good math #smallsamplesize

 

[HailToTheDeacons]

Gonna be pretty Cowboys when he gets suspended for the playoffs.

I have the Alfred Morris handcuff (no pun intended) in fantasy.

But let's be serious - the NFL is not dropping any kind of hammer on this Cowboys team.

 

[JuiceCrewAllStar]

I initially thought this was ridiculous, but $30 MM divided by 50,000 people is only $600 a person. Seems legit.

That figure is using input-output analysis. Looks at each round of spending for every outside dollar that enters the economy based on industry buying patterns. So it's not each person spending $600, but the money they do spend gets cycled through the city to that amount on average.

 

[PhDeac]

Why? Because you don't like entertaining things to watch or you don't like people using good math #smallsamplesize

I like people using good math. Missing a conversion is crushing. Making one when you're up typically doesn't mean much, especially early in the game.

Using the Win Probability Calculator, here are the Steelers odds of winning after their first TD (1st Q 9:54):

Miss XP or 2 point conversion (up 6-0): 74.0%
Make XP (up 7-0): 76.5%
Make 2 point conversion(up 8-0): 78.2%

So even just over 5 minutes into the game, making a 2 point conversion increases win odds by 1.7% over making an XP, but missing it decreases win odds by 2.5%.

So let's look later in the 1st on the Steelers' second TD (1st Q 1:13) to go up 12-3.

Miss XP or 2 point conversion (up 12-3): 82.3%
Make XP (up 13-3): 84.4%
Make 2 point conversion (up 14-3): 86.3%

At this point, a miss risks 2.1% and a make gains 1.9%.

The lower advantage of getting the extra extra point has to be factored into the calculations that say it's worth it to keep going for two because of the small chance of coming out ahead.