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Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

Deacs9394 said:
Absolutely NO to Shaka! He would be another bad hire. One final four run made this guy. But a deeper look reveals an average coach at best. Look at his record compared to other VCU coaches...he has NEVER finished in first place. Anthony Grant in his 3 years at VCU finished first all three years. Will Wade finished first in 1 of 2 seasons at VCU. Mike Rhoades about to finish first this year. So in the 7 years someone other than Shaka Smart was the coach, VCU finished first 5 times! In Shaka's 6 years...zero.
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But still, Shaka, in his 10 year head coaching career, has coached in as many Final Fours as Wake has been to in its entire 113 year basketball history.
 
I would 100000% take Shaka over most of the names people on the board are throwing around.

I would undoubtedly put Shaka in my Tier One.
 
I admit to not being sure what to think of Shaka anymore. His time at VCU, despite a magical run from the 1st 4 to Final 4, just doesn't necessarily stand out otherwise compared to those who came before and after him. And he's obviously struggled to get wins at Texas. So hard to know. He's a known quantity, but is that better than an up-and-comer who may have a higher peak (or, may not)?
 
No doubt Shaka would be a step up from Wellman's last two hires but at this point I don't know if Shaka can dig us out of the hole Wellman dug. Both his HC jobs were at programs not needing a total rebuild. At this point we need someone, like clawson, who has had to build something from the ground up.
 
LilburnDeac said:
But still, Shaka, in his 10 year head coaching career, has coached in as many Final Fours as Wake has been to in its entire 113 year basketball history.
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One hot run...with mostly Anthony Grant's recruits. Everything else on his record points to overrated. In 10 years as a head coach he has never finished first in his league. In 4 years in a major conference he is 61-60 overall and 30-39. He had the #6 overall pick last year and finished 8-10 in the Big 12 and 6th place. And this is not in a vacuum...we can compare him to others. Rick Barnes for one. And @ VCU...the other 3 coaches in the past 15 years there have/will finished first in the league...the only time that did not happen is under Smart.

I've said on several occasions that hiring any mid-major coach is a risk. And Smart has been my example. He was a "homerun hire" and that has turned out to not be the case at all. We have evidence that he is simply not as good a coach as his reputation implies...and that is inarguable.
 
Basketball teams can be improved a lot in one or two years with a few great recruits. Only five players at a time on the court for your team. If three are top 50 or better, and well coached, you are good. Basketball freshman also are much more ready to play than most football players.
 
I'd love to have an up-and-coming coach come here, prove how amazing he is, stay forever, and Wellman/the AD show great competence.

I'm split on if I want to risk something on an up-and-comer at this point or if I want a proven commodity. Despite the record, Texas is still 27th in KP this year. I would love to have Shaka as our coach if it ends up being a real possibility.
 
Deacs9394 said:
One hot run...with mostly Anthony Grant's recruits. Everything else on his record points to overrated. In 10 years as a head coach he has never finished first in his league. In 4 years in a major conference he is 61-60 overall and 30-39. He had the #6 overall pick last year and finished 8-10 in the Big 12 and 6th place. And this is not in a vacuum...we can compare him to others. Rick Barnes for one. And @ VCU...the other 3 coaches in the past 15 years there have/will finished first in the league...the only time that did not happen is under Smart.

I've said on several occasions that hiring any mid-major coach is a risk. And Smart has been my example. He was a "homerun hire" and that has turned out to not be the case at all. We have evidence that he is simply not as good a coach as his reputation implies...and that is inarguable.
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One hot run? He had a top 30 team the 3 years in a row before he left. Anthony Grant had zero top 50 teams there.
 
I still think the chances of Smart ending up at Wake are slim, but he’d absolutely be a home run / tier one hire.

He had the best results of all VCU coaches... Not sure how you could argue otherwise.

He hasn’t been bad at Texas. Far from it. W/L has been mixed, for sure... But I think he’s still an elite (or near-elite) college coach.
 
University of Texas regents recently approved a plan to build a $300 million on-campus basketball arena to replace the 41-year-old Frank Erwin Center. It's scheduled to open in 2021.

The new arena will sit on 6.64 acres of land located south of Mike A. Myers Stadium between Red River Street and Robert Dedman Drive. It will replace the 41-year-old Erwin Center, which will be razed to allow future expansion of the Dell Medical School.

The cavernous Erwin Center, which holds over 16,500 for basketball games and up to 17,900 for concerts, often felt desolate and lethargic. The minds behind its replacement hope a lesser capacity and modernized amenities create a more lively atmosphere.

The new arena will seat 10,000 for basketball games and expand to 15,000 for concerts and other events.

"We're building one of the nation's finest arenas that will provide an awesome home court advantage for our men's and women's basketball programs," Del Conte said. "The 10,000-seat facility will bring our fans and students close to the action and provide an exciting and engaging game day experience."

https://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/college_sports/longhorns/article/So-long-Erwin-Center-Texas-expects-new-13481745.php
 
Deacs9394 said:
One hot run...with mostly Anthony Grant's recruits. Everything else on his record points to overrated. In 10 years as a head coach he has never finished first in his league. In 4 years in a major conference he is 61-60 overall and 30-39. He had the #6 overall pick last year and finished 8-10 in the Big 12 and 6th place. And this is not in a vacuum...we can compare him to others. Rick Barnes for one. And @ VCU...the other 3 coaches in the past 15 years there have/will finished first in the league...the only time that did not happen is under Smart.

I've said on several occasions that hiring any mid-major coach is a risk. And Smart has been my example. He was a "homerun hire" and that has turned out to not be the case at all. We have evidence that he is simply not as good a coach as his reputation implies...and that is inarguable.
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I like posts like this because they stake out a position and are based upon facts.

That said, Shaka's record at VCU should be further explained. Yes, Smart never "finished first in his league" (regular season), but in his 6 years at VCU (3 in the CAA and 3 in A-10), his teams went a collective 74-30 in league play, and finished 2nd 3 times, and with a winning conference record every year - his worst year in conference was year #1 when VCU went 11-7 in conference.

In every season other than his first, Smart's teams did enough to get an NCAA bid. In his 3 years in the A-10, no school won more conference games overall than VCU. So, it's not like Smart didn't have success in conference play. Also, his teams won both the CAA Conference tourney and the A-10 Conference tourney. His program was the best overall team in each conference during his run at VCU.

Also, winning with Anthony Grant's recruits is not really accurate. 2010, Smart's first year at VCU and the year with the roster with highest percentage of Grant's recruits, was the only year that VCU did not make the NCAAs during Smart's VCU tenure. From 2012 on, when almost all of VCU's roster was built on Smart recruits, VCU went: 29-7 (NCAA 2nd round), 27-9 (NCAA 2nd round), 26-9 (NCAA 1st round), 26-10 (NCAA first round). So, over the 4 years, when VCU's roster relied on Smart's recruits, they never won fewer than 26 games, and the made the NCAAs each year.

FWIW, don't see Smart leaving Texas, but his record gives plenty of evidence that Smart knows what he is doing.
 
My expectations are if Wellman puts ego aside and makes a BUSINESS decision we have excellent chance to get SHAKA.

Everyone here knows we're about two months away from the KY Derby. Everyone here knows I make my bets based of on past performances. This is why I am hesitant to say this is a lock, or even that we are favored to get SHAKA.

The #1, #2 #3 #4 and #5 reasons I won't say we are favored to get SHAKA are RW's past performances. He's screwed up SO MANY TIMES and been cheap SO MANY TIMES that I can't say he'll the trigger. Ron Wellman has been a DISASTER.

The sad part is this should be a 1000% ego play for him. Getting SHAKA would be a terrific "legacy" pick for him.
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
I would 100000% take Shaka over most of the names people on the board are throwing around.

I would undoubtedly put Shaka in my Tier One.
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Right there with you but like Pilchard, I just don't see Texas making a change.

FWIW, I still don't believe Wellman makes a change either. Fear folks are getting all excited for change when it's not going to happen. Adding excitement of "Let's get Shaka!" to the mix is double jeopardy.
 
Stormfury said:
Right there with you but like Pilchard, I just don't see Texas making a change.

FWIW, I still don't believe Wellman makes a change either. Fear folks are getting all excited for change when it's not going to happen. Adding excitement of "Let's get Shaka!" to the mix is double jeopardy.
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I agree it's unlikely, but I don't see it as any less likely than getting Thad Matta. If Shaka is actually relieved of his duties at Texas, Wake seems like a landing spot that makes sense.
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
I agree it's unlikely, but I don't see it as any less likely than getting Thad Matta. If Shaka is actually relieved of his duties at Texas, Wake seems like a landing spot that makes sense.
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If Shaka is actually relieved of his duties at Texas, I can easily see Matta getting the job in Austin.
 
buckets said:
Dudes - I have some data I am working on and wanted to find some common traits between "good" and "bad" hires in P5 programs over the last 5-10 years

My "good" list consists of guys that have had top 25 programs multiple times in the last 5 seasons and have been on their current job 10 years or less:
Tony Bennett
Chris Mack
Sean Miller
Chris Holtmann
Steve Prohm
Michael White
Chris Beard
Dana Altman
Mark Turgeon
Eric Musselman

Any other additions to consider? And what criteria would be relevant to identify "bad" hires for comparison? Some guys their time runs out, some guys get fired because they suck, like:

Jeff [Redacted]
Danny Manning
Kevin Stallings
Johnny Jones
John Groce
Mark Gottfried
Kim Anderson
Brian Gregory
Travis Ford
Trent Johnson
Eddie Jordan
Rick Ray
Craig Robinson
Steve Donahue
Ken Bone
Tony Barbee
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Good:
Rick Barnes
Buzz Williams
Kelvin Sampson
Jim Larranaga
 
I think it’s far more likely a fired Shaka takes a TV job and eventually replaced Rhoades whenever he leaves VCU. It’s clear he and his family love VCU. I’d throw a few bills on replacing Mooney at Richmond if he gets fired as well.

Dreaming about him coming to Wake is silly.
 
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