Slightly disconcerting game today. Even more disconcerting overall start to this season that has for the first time put even a little doubt into my mind around the long-term ceiling of the program under this staff, but context always matters - so let’s look big picture.
I’ll go year by year below, but what I will say is Forbes has generally been very good at figuring out which guys need to play a ton, and after about game #10/12, really plays only guys that need to. We’ve just always been 1-2 guys short (which is on him in the big picture if it doesn’t change, but not shocking to date given the circumstances of his arrival and not something I’m overly worried about). This topic deserves its own post (or series of them) which I’ll save for another time, but I’ll just say that there have been signs of tracking towards deeper teams with some continuity supplemented by a few transfers and I’m not overly worried about this aspect of roster building getting to the point where we finally have that piece that rounds the roster out enough to make the tournament.
2020-2021 - COVID year - the only P5 coach to take over a program after the pandemic restrictions had changed life for everyone — took over a dumpster fire AND wasn’t allowed to meet with potential recruits in person to give himself a competitive roster. I believe that not only did that impact this season, which I don’t count against him in the least, but it contributed to the lack of depth and zero continuity the following season that ultimately kept us about one guy short of making the tournament in year 2….
2021-2022 - 25 wins. 23-9 (13-7) on Selection Sunday.
KP:35, 41 O, 42 D, both solid.
- This team dominated the paint — 58.5% from 2, 46.6% against, 3rd best gap in the country, behind the top 2 overall teams in the country for most of that season - Arizona and Gonzaga - and this gap was even better in conference play than overall.
- Good defensive rebounding team, ok overall.
- Achilles heal was TO with Alondes playing PG - take the bad with the good.
The story of this team that sort of got lost in memory is that coming off the prior disaster of a season, this team struggled for a while early on. When even one rotation player was out, everything got ugly because we had guys that had no business forced into bigger roles than they were ready for because there were no options behind them. (See VMI/Charlotte without Laravia, Clemson without Mucius, Oregon St with Sy limited.)
Also lost in memory, we really figured something out from about January 19 onwards, ranking 24th overall the rest of the way (including the tournaments, complete with BC loss). What happened then? Damari Monsanto played his first game. We didn’t get last year’s version of Damari that could dominate stretches of a game. We got a slightly limited 7th man that played about 16 minutes, showed flashes of his brilliance at times, and had an O-rtg barely above 100, and gave capable doses of rebounding and defense. So how could we have gotten that much better? Our rotation shortened to an awesome group of 7 that fit together well and didn’t have any gaping holes. And just as importantly, it gave us the ability to more or less permanently move Carter Whitt to the bench (and play the freshman version of Hildreth with his 96 Ortg much less).
The team was good enough to make the tournament, we had 6.5 dudes, and didn’t but for a large number of bad breaks that didn’t go our way and opportunitIes left on the table. A masterclass in overhauling a roster and a solid coaching job pulling that output together, but also a missed opportunity in that it won’t alleviate the pressure to make the tournament from a tortured and impatient fan base. In some ways, being that good that year may be to their detriment versus more slowly rising out of a hole as it dangerously raised expectations.
2022-2023 - Second full year with his players. Still little continuity given most of the prior year’s contributors were grad transfers. Only Monsanto and Williamson had been contributors the prior year, and Hildreth and Marsh made steps forward. Appleby and Carr big additions.
19-14, 10-10 against a harder ACC schedule
O - 52, was running around 30 prior to Monsanto injury
D - 133
This team was decent but clearly and objectively worse than the prior year’s team. It was clear early on that we only had 4.5 guys that didn’t hurt us: Appleby, Hildreth, Monsanto, and Carr, and in some matchups Marsh.
That starting lineup had one of the best +\- in the country through January — but any other combination of players wasn’t working (at all). Williamson was playing injured and a shell of himself most of the way (and we got obliterated with him on the court until basically the ACC tourney). Klintman wasn’t ready until we lost one of those guys. There was some bad luck with Laravia not coming back. I’m sure they weren’t counting on Walton or Mucius so it’s tough to give them credit there. Bradford and Ituka missed.
In any case, short at least one guy, leaving roster holes that led to tough lineup decisions all year. Given one lineup worked, we had to play it. It gave us a great offense (top 30), scrapped to slightly below average rebounding, but left a lot to be desired on rim protection (and overall defensively). I’m also pretty sure the coaches have been instructing/teaching the core not to foul due to that lack of depth, which I think exacerbates some of those problems and contributes to some of the slow starts defensively (we look a little better on that end in the second half — bad being better than putrid —every game this year so far). Klintman finally started to kick ass down the stretch…after we lost Monsanto, leaving us in the same spot all year.
It’s a team that likely shouldn’t have sniffed the tournament. But they fought hard enough and were good enough offensively that they gave themselves many chances to stay in big games. Which then made it all the more infuriating when they never got over the hump against better teams, losing 7 games by exactly 2, including 4 straight that all would’ve been the Q1/Q2 wins we needed. Season basically over. Monsanto hurt, season fully over.
2023-2024 That leads us to this year, another wonderful frustration in the life of a Wake Forest basketball fan. Year 3 with a roster of his doing. On paper, we might have a bit more minutes continuity vs last year’s 296th (24%). Hildreth, Carr, Monsanto, Marsh all returners that played big minutes. Two (or maybe just 1) former 5-stars each with multiple years left. An electric PG transfer with 3 years left. Ituka possibly as well. Never mind.
Bobby Klintman. GDMF. Never mind.
Minutes continuity is up to 38%, 177th. Great. The base of guys that carry over gets a little bigger and better each year. Another good sign. All 13 players have remaining eligibility, so hopefully that number is much higher next year.
But…we have 4 guys 7 games in. 4 very good pieces, but a little redundant. It’s a roster issue again, and I’m not feeling great. Everyone else is a minus season to date. I like the freshmen, but not this year. Some good pieces around one gaping hole in the front court. Marsh is our best option at C, which is not great as it doesn’t appear he’s improved much from last year. He’s going to need to or else these pieces have no chance to be better than a below average rebounding team and average defensive team when on the floor together.
The product also hasn’t been better than the overall talent so far, which is the first year I fell that way. Sallis, Hildreth, and Boopie are all going to need to get more rebounds and force more turnovers than they are to date. They don’t have a choice. They’re playing 36, 36, 30 minutes. Along with Carr, they’re being asked to carry the offense. But they’ve got to do everything unless help comes. Maybe Reid or Monsanto provides that — not counting on it.
Last thing is looking at overall direction into next year. There are legit excuses or reasons why we’ve been 1-2 guys short. NBA, Australia, injuries, waivers. Most of that outside their control so I don’t hold those against them when looking at potential ability to build a program. But I also know that at some point momentum of a program stalls out if results are bad enough for long enough. At some point lack of talent can’t be the excuse. There has to be a season where there’s enough talent and it all comes together and shows you can make the tournament at a minimum.
I’m looking at the next year or two as put up or shut up years where there should be more than 5 playable guys, where you have all the pieces you need, and then you actually win games to get over the hump. Even if we don’t solve this year in time, our current top 4 plus Reid, Marsh, Juke, Marion, Parker plus/minus any transfer replacements should solve the roster piece of talent/depth at the same time going into next year. Enough to withstand injuries or Juke/Marion/PF not being ready or any other excuses. Pulling the plug before next year would be really short-sighted and set us back into a rebuild. But that roster will have 1 shot together. And the coaching needs to be good enough to not get in their way or there will be a lot more questions.
