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the official new supreme court thread - Very political

BarcaDeac said:
we were remarking while watching Oliver last night how awful it would be if Biden gets only one on SCOTUS and Trump could add more to his already 3
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This is why I say we are looking at decades of a Republican majority on the court.
 
Liquid Karma said:
This is why I say we are looking at decades of a Republican majority on the court.
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Only if people don't show up to vote against Trump and Senate Republicans. Otherwise, it could be decades of a Democrat majority if people vote for Biden and the next Dem.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
I should have been clear - I am wondering why this ^ is.
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Because Republicans realize politics is a team sport.

Democrats sit around and call people ageist for merely suggesting RBG step aside for the good of everything she stood for.

Scalia's death was a massive glitch in their whole set up. But not enough people showed up for Hillary.
 
PhDeac said:
Only if people don't show up to vote against Trump and Senate Republicans. Otherwise, it could be decades of a Democrat majority if people vote for Biden and the next Dem.
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Clarence Thomas will hang on till he's 84 before he retires under a Dem president.
 
Biff Tannen said:
Clarence Thomas will hang on till he's 84 before he retires under a Dem president.
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Not everyone who wants to hang out till their 84 gets to hang on that long.
 
PhDeac said:
On the flip side, could Thomas and Alito out last a 2nd Biden administration?
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thomas will keep his claws on the court as long as he can (for life) because the perks are just too good. And gini. That dirt bag loves it too.
 
wonder how bad a driver and liability an 84-year old RV driver would be. you know his selfish ass would never stop driving no matter how much of a danger he puts himself and others in.
 
PhDeac said:
Only if people don't show up to vote against Trump and Senate Republicans. Otherwise, it could be decades of a Democrat majority if people vote for Biden and the next Dem.
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My reply from the pro life thread. You're banking on an unlikely scenario.

The last time Democrats held on to the white house for more than 8 consecutive years was WW2. They should get 4 more years of Biden, but the odds are that after that we will see a Republican president.

3 of the 4 justices under age 60 are Republican appointees,

The average age a justice leaves the court is 81, so it's likely we won't see any voluntary vacancies out of the younger justices.

That means it would be reasonable for 2/3 of Thomas/Alito/Roberts to make it through 2 more presidential terms. They can wait out 4 more years of Biden and even another 4 year Democrat term (which would break a long time trend) before retiring.

So yes, I believe it is very likely they maintain at worst a 5-4 majority for multiple decades.

Our best hope, and you are obviously more optimistic than I am, is a historical run of Democrat presidents that outlasts all three of the aforementioned justices assuming no other early vacancies.

All that said, we were this close to getting that very scenario had Hillary won in 2016. 🤷‍♂️. A few thousand votes in a swing state, and Mitch determined a third of the court for a 20-30 year run.

Republicans rig the game better than democrats
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myDeaconmyhand said:
I should have been clear - I am wondering why this ^ is.
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My first thought is that some liberal justices see themselves as public intellectuals, champions of freedom, or even the last line of defense against tyranny. Some conservative justices like the power, influence, and money (which needn't stop after they retire)
 
wakephan09 said:
My first thought is that some liberal justices see themselves as public intellectuals, champions of freedom, or even the last line of defense against tyranny.
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I agree that’s likely how many of them see themselves, but what’s preventing them from proactively retiring while a like-minded President could choose their successor, rather than chancing it?
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
I agree that’s likely how many of them see themselves, but what’s preventing them from proactively retiring while a like-minded President could choose their successor, rather than chancing it?
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Pride

In the aftermath of Scalia’s death, Thomas and Alito could have retired under Trump to lock in a majority for the next 20-30 years. But they didn’t. These justices think they earned a lifelong position based on their own greatness.
 
PhDeac said:
Pride

In the aftermath of Scalia’s death, Thomas and Alito could have retired under Trump to lock in a majority for the next 20-30 years. But they didn’t. These justices think they earned a lifelong position based on their own greatness.
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Or in the case of Thomas, he didn't want a pay cut.
 
Liquid Karma said:
Or in the case of Thomas, he didn't want a pay cut.
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Yeah. Pride factors in getting used to expensive vacations paid for by people you think are your friends.
 
What is a “friend” if not someone who will fly you around in their private jet or pay for your moms house simply out of appreciation for you being really good at your job? Can’t do anything nice these days for a Supreme Court Justice without someone accusing you of having an ulterior motive.
 
I think we've also gotten to a point where the composition of the Senate will play into whether a justice will choose to retire. During the time a president was almost guaranteed to get a nominee confirmed (except in the most egregious cases, see, e.g., Bork and Miers), this was less of an issue. Even if a vacancy occurs in the first year of a presidency, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that a Republican president gets a nominee confirmed if the Democrats have say, 53, seats in the Senate. And that is probably even more true if you flip the party controlling the oval office and the Senate. Obviously who those Senators are matters, but we're not in the same world we were when Scalia got a unanimous confirmation and RBG got a 96-3 vote.
 
PhDeac said:
Yeah. Pride factors in getting used to expensive vacations paid for by people you think are your friends.
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Hey pal, they’ve been friends since 5 years after Thomas joined the court, and he’s been on it a long time!
 
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